The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Just in case anyone considering Geremia doesn't know - currently 260 on the Exchange. Faylaq is trading under 100. I'm expecting him to go off 200s, that would seem logical.

Pretty much everywhere else is soft, what a shame.
 
I've backed a handful of the total rags to very small stakes on the exchange (win only). They look overpriced relative to where they stand in my ratings table.

(Watch out for the after-timing thread... :lol::ninja:)
 
Middle Park - Sketch 70/1 - was only 2/1 against Vandeek in a G2 at York and clearly didn't give his running there.
 
Our Goldie boys didn't disgrace, given that logically they were always going to struggle. Both under 4 lengths off the winner, I think.

Now, can Goldie get Geremia to stay 2f over 2 miles?

And will Faylaq get another crack in November?
 
Arc - Free Wind 20/1, 4 places

Towards the end of last season I felt she was a 125 filly waiting to happen. Then this season the Gosdens have had a couple of seriously good fillies in Emily Upjohn and Nashwa. The latter maybe wouldn't stay a strongly run 12f but EU was only 7/2 for the King George and skips this for other targets so why does Free Wind run? With Frankie up? On his final Arc ride? For the Alpinista connections?

I definitely want her onside.
 
Marb said:
Doncaster 3.00. Pogo E/W was too good a horse the past season or two to be totally discounting him here.

He's done most his racing on good or better ground in his career, but he has shown he can act on soft ground, although he hasn't raced on it that often. He might actually handle it better than one or two others though. His trainer Charles Hills says he will keep an eye on the ground and won't run him if it gets too soft which is fair enough. Let's see what the weather gods do.

He's been good to me more than once in his career thus far, and if anyone can turn around this poor run he's on, it might just be him.

Good luck all over the weekend.
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He was a N/R this day because of soft ground. I didn't see the race but great to see him bounce back today in the Foret. He had form with Kinross from last season at Goodwood and York, and I knew if he could run to near his best he could get in the places today.

He's run into fourth at 80/1, typically I meant to mention him on this thread beforehand, but I was busy all day and my phone died of battery. One or two bookies were going four places.

Pogo has finally returned to form then. His next entry is the Group 2 over 7 furlongs on the Friday of the Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket. No doubt there'll be decent competition, although thankfully there'll be no Kinross as he isn't entered. I might just back Pogo in that race depending on the opposition.
 
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Ascot 3.00 - Jumby 20/1, 4 places - strikes me as the only one of the higher-rated runners in the race whose odds are out of kilter with their ratings. You can get 22/1 to three places. If the drift continues I can always go in again at SP with the fourth place on offer at Skybet.
 
Ascot 3.35 - Lethal Levi 28/1, 6 places - second top on my ratings on current season form so has to be a bet at that price with the extra places.
 
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Cesarewitch - The Grand Visir 50/1 - ran a great race behind Trueshan in the Doncaster cup and probably not over that when disappointing a couple of weeks later at Chester. Trained by Ian Williams so probably has had the race on the agenda since the Chester Cup or Ascot.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cesarewitch - The Grand Visir 50/1 - ran a great race behind Trueshan in the Doncaster cup and probably not over that when disappointing a couple of weeks later at Chester. Trained by Ian Williams so probably has had the race on the agenda since the Chester Cup or Ascot.
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I've now added M C Muldoon 40/1, 5 places.

Short-headed in the 2021 Ascot Stakes off this mark and subsequently a [well] beaten 9/2 favourite for this race off 100. Buick has been booked for the ride. Only see a couple of times since but the fact he's still in the race with our top jockey booked suggests he's been showing something at home.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've now added M C Muldoon 40/1, 5 places.

Short-headed in the 2021 Ascot Stakes off this mark and subsequently a [well] beaten 9/2 favourite for this race off 100. Buick has been booked for the ride. Only see a couple of times since but the fact he's still in the race with our top jockey booked suggests he's been showing something at home.
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Mullins is becoming a marmite character for me. I love listening to his race analyses and he's a brilliant trainer but he's fair fvcking us about a bit.

At today's final decs, Buick has switched to stablemate Lots Of Joy so I wonder what has happened since the earlier declaration stage this week. Ground? Travel issues? Plot?

I'm struggling to make a case for the latter other Buick switching from one I could make a case for but at 33/1 and 7 places I can afford to roll with it. (Tudhope takes over on M C Muldoon.)
 
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Richard Fahey is no mug and while the £50K sprint handicap at York Saturday is a tough race with many of the usual suspects, he’s running The Ridler as a 3yo off 100 following wind surgery.

In his last 3 runs since winning the Norfolk he’s basically come last but they were the Mornay, Greenham and Sandy Lane and I ask myself why would he throw a 3yo horse straight into a race like this following wind surgery and 140 days off.

Could be the owner just wants a day out but can’t believe that given the op and time off.

9 of the last 10 winners of this came from single figure draws and if that stands up then he’s well berthed tomorrow.

50/1 is freely available and if the wind op has done anything he’s a G2 winner in a class 2 handicap.

It could be that he just hasn’t trained on as a 3yo but at that price I’m prepared to pay to find out.
 
York 2.25 - Gweedore 25/1, 6 places, BOG - the price strikes me as entirely wrong based on his Ayr Gold Cup form and this is my main bet in the race.
 
I quite like one I think you have mentioned before, DO. That one being Hyperfocus. See how we go.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
York 2.25 - Gweedore 25/1, 6 places, BOG - the price strikes me as entirely wrong based on his Ayr Gold Cup form and this is my main bet in the race.
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Left his side miles behind and would have won with a low draw.

My figures have done well (adjusted to 118 or more):

Horse
OR
MON
118
Notes
BO
King's Lynn
99
120
e N d
25/1
Hyperfocus
89
120
e
33/1
4[SUP]th[/SUP]
Gweedore
100
119
p
20/1
3[SUP]rd[/SUP]
Aberama Gold
98
119
25/1
Summerghand
104
118
125
14/1
Montassib
101
118
?
12/1
1[SUP]st[/SUP]
Albasheer
100
118
+
13/2
5[SUP]th[/SUP]
The Ridler
100
118
?
50/1
Aleezdancer
94
118
14/1
6[SUP]th[/SUP]
Mr Wagyu
92
118
128
16/1
Rousing Encore
90
118
o e d
66/1

<tbody>
</tbody>
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Mullins is becoming a marmite character for me. I love listening to his race analyses and he's a brilliant trainer but he's fair fvcking us about a bit.

At today's final decs, Buick has switched to stablemate Lots Of Joy so I wonder what has happened since the earlier declaration stage this week. Ground? Travel issues? Plot?

I'm struggling to make a case for the latter other Buick switching from one I could make a case for but at 33/1 and 7 places I can afford to roll with it. (Tudhope takes over on M C Muldoon.)
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In to 13/2???????????
 
Do WHill no longer do BOG? I’ve not been having many bets recently and tend to bet the day before and get enhanced odds. I assumed that, if I had my bets on the day I’d still get BOG but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Apologies for the aftertiming but I backed the Pipe horse ew and, thankfully topped up my bet when I noticed he’d gone out to 100/1. Is anyone doing BOG?
 
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