Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,024
(Emphasis mine.)
Iwilldoit has covered everything for today with plenty to spare. No complaints.
Now 16s in a few places for Aintree.
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The 2023 Longshot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
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(Emphasis mine.)
Iwilldoit has covered everything for today with plenty to spare. No complaints.
Now 16s in a few places for Aintree.
Well done D.nice winner and I'm kicking myself as my finger hovvered over 18/1 in running but didnt do it.
As per usual I followed DO with he National bet advice ( thanks DO).Expected the National betting to be suspended but it wasn’t. I really like seeing Sam Thomas do well as I think PN treated him appallingly when he rode for him. (Ditto Christian Williams and a few others…).
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
Nice one, DO.
chaumi
Rookie
Read all about it. Read all about it.
Desert 'I can see the future' Orchid strikes fear into the Grand National betting markets with a stunningly superb two-in-one now and future combined prediction.
Great stuff, DO.
Desert 'I can see the future' Orchid strikes fear into the Grand National betting markets with a stunningly superb two-in-one now and future combined prediction.
Great stuff, DO.
chaumi
Rookie
Asadjumeirah 3.20 South Just about scrapes in at 20-1 B3 with the 25s most others now into 22s in the last few mins.
Looks like he's had a wind-op since last run a few months ago.
Normally runs well after a similar break.
A. Brittain stable in reasonable form, on a rough par with previous seasons at this time of year, although the spate of winners is yet to happen. It might be round the corner.
On some of last year's turf form can be expected to be seriously competitive here, notably the York Class 2 4th last May.
Has run well/won on all sand surfaces/tracks.
Just turned 5, this year might be a peak year.
Cam Hardie knows him inside out.
What we don't know is how long ago the wind op was performed. If fit after that, and it elicits some improvement, this could be the time to catch. Worst case is a good run but just outside the money, best case either the good run or well out the back because there's plenty of evidence the next win is just a matter of time.
Looks like he's had a wind-op since last run a few months ago.
Normally runs well after a similar break.
A. Brittain stable in reasonable form, on a rough par with previous seasons at this time of year, although the spate of winners is yet to happen. It might be round the corner.
On some of last year's turf form can be expected to be seriously competitive here, notably the York Class 2 4th last May.
Has run well/won on all sand surfaces/tracks.
Just turned 5, this year might be a peak year.
Cam Hardie knows him inside out.
What we don't know is how long ago the wind op was performed. If fit after that, and it elicits some improvement, this could be the time to catch. Worst case is a good run but just outside the money, best case either the good run or well out the back because there's plenty of evidence the next win is just a matter of time.
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chaumi
Rookie
Asad run out of 5th in the last half furlong. Never looked like taking any sort of real hand in the finish. I suspect too promising a run to guarantee odds in the 20s next time (almost certainly at Newcastle), but maybe the view will be he was beaten too far to be a valid threat. I think that will be a wrong viewpoint, and he'll prove it at some point...with the background possibility the wind-op hasn't fixed whatever they believed was wrong. We'll see.
Marble put me onto this one back in the summer and we followed it.can definitely win off his mark.
chaumi
Rookie
...and Anthony Brittain 2 winners and a 2nd from 4 runners today. One of which won by 4 lengths in a 7f race (though was very much entitled to on paper and well backed through the day). None at prices warranting a mention on this thread...but the evidence suggests it's time to watch his longer-priced runners closely for a while.
chaumi
Rookie
How Exciting 7.15 South 66-1
Owned by Middleham Park. She was originally bought partly on performance in breeze-ups, 6th quickest filly of the entire Goffs Uk 187 Breeze Up.
Running in a Class 6 classified stakes for Ann Duffield and Paul Mulrennan, a well-worn winning partnership.
By Invincible Spirit, there's every chance that, at some point, she's going to show something properly worthwhile. That hasn't happened yet, hence the price. But in a previous 6f race at Newcastle (few runs back, 30th Sept) she was under pressure well before any of the other runners and stuck on well (on what appeared to be the slowest side of the track) to finish 4th (though well behind the winner).
Obviously a worry she hasn't really shown anything yet. Could be it's just taking time. Could be that when she can be within a length of the leaders entering the last furlong, she'll fight for it. Maybe it'll be Newcastle where it happens rather than Southwell.
Low stakes. 66-1 in a weak-looking race to find out is reasonable. Hopefully, there will be a drift to 100.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZlFRU9KDRY&t=42s
Owned by Middleham Park. She was originally bought partly on performance in breeze-ups, 6th quickest filly of the entire Goffs Uk 187 Breeze Up.
Running in a Class 6 classified stakes for Ann Duffield and Paul Mulrennan, a well-worn winning partnership.
By Invincible Spirit, there's every chance that, at some point, she's going to show something properly worthwhile. That hasn't happened yet, hence the price. But in a previous 6f race at Newcastle (few runs back, 30th Sept) she was under pressure well before any of the other runners and stuck on well (on what appeared to be the slowest side of the track) to finish 4th (though well behind the winner).
Obviously a worry she hasn't really shown anything yet. Could be it's just taking time. Could be that when she can be within a length of the leaders entering the last furlong, she'll fight for it. Maybe it'll be Newcastle where it happens rather than Southwell.
Low stakes. 66-1 in a weak-looking race to find out is reasonable. Hopefully, there will be a drift to 100.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZlFRU9KDRY&t=42s
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chaumi
Rookie
We could send him a happy birthday and see what happens, Mo. He always hits a few winners around this time, so probably just that he has a few above-average sand runners, and Jan-Feb is a good time to take advantage.
chaumi
Rookie
Right end of the money, wrong end of the race. Maybe when she’s grown up.
Didnt run too bad there.stayed on at the end.
There’s money going on the Millman horse in the 3.50. I was going to back it earlier but I was logged out of my account again but I’ve just had a small ew using oddschecker.
….now drifting like a barge..
Alice Haynes a trainer worth keeping an eye on…
….now drifting like a barge..
Alice Haynes a trainer worth keeping an eye on…
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Tiny Clanger
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2012
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- 383
How Exciting .....
.. Epilog ... back at Newc this affy earlier on, not sure it gets 5F let alone the 6F it just ran
Sent from my SM-A226B using Tapatalk
.. Epilog ... back at Newc this affy earlier on, not sure it gets 5F let alone the 6F it just ran
Sent from my SM-A226B using Tapatalk
chaumi
Rookie
Thx Tiny Yes, she would not have been backable here at these odds today. Ann Duffield will likely find the key...but it's only worth the risk at well into double-figure odds. That last race was weak, indicated she's either just not ready or needs some other change of scenario. A race will come, don't rule out the 200-1 one day in the next year or two.
Aftertiming I know (sorry) but only noticed at the last minute that WHill were paying out first 3 in the 3.40 at Thurles in a 6 runner race so it was worth having a small ew on the two rank outsiders, one of which came third at 50/1. I need to keep an eye on these extra places in small fields.
Southwell 3.40 - 11 runners due to run and Skybet go four each way places but I can't see a price from them yet. Perseverants won a couple races abroad when he was generally tracking leaders and up with the pace. He switched to Scott Dixons yard last year then ran two stinkers on turf but I think now he has been gelded and had more time over here he can out run odds of 66/1or thereabouts from the inside stall one tomorrow. Maybe also worth considering for back-to-lay punters on Betfair.
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I think Malakahna is over-priced at 25/1 in Cheltenham’s closing 2m handicap hurdle.
I’m happy to forgive her effort over 2m5f at Newbury (raced wide, took a false step), and think she can still improve beyond her current mark of 125. She is also a strong stayer at 2m, and already has course form in the bag (winner at April meeting).
The one slight concern I have is she’s had a lot of racing over the last 12 months, but to counter that, she kept her form on the flat in the summer, and has been freshened-up since that Newbury run in November.
I think she’s very appealing off a featherweight (despite being 3lbs out the handicap), in a race that might not take a huge amount of winning.
I’m happy to forgive her effort over 2m5f at Newbury (raced wide, took a false step), and think she can still improve beyond her current mark of 125. She is also a strong stayer at 2m, and already has course form in the bag (winner at April meeting).
The one slight concern I have is she’s had a lot of racing over the last 12 months, but to counter that, she kept her form on the flat in the summer, and has been freshened-up since that Newbury run in November.
I think she’s very appealing off a featherweight (despite being 3lbs out the handicap), in a race that might not take a huge amount of winning.
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