The 2023 Longshot Thread

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Where is Desert orchid? Hasn't been seen since euro offended him on the 16th. I hope he feels better about being on here soon.
 
simmo said:
Where is Desert orchid? Hasn't been seen since euro offended him on the 16th. I hope he feels better about being on here soon.
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I hope he’s ok. I’m down to £8 in my betting account. I need his help.
 
Grasshopper said:
I think Malakahna is over-priced at 25/1 in Cheltenham’s closing 2m handicap hurdle.

I’m happy to forgive her effort over 2m5f at Newbury (raced wide, took a false step), and think she can still improve beyond her current mark of 125. She is also a strong stayer at 2m, and already has course form in the bag (winner at April meeting).

The one slight concern I have is she’s had a lot of racing over the last 12 months, but to counter that, she kept her form on the flat in the summer, and has been freshened-up since that Newbury run in November.

I think she’s very appealing off a featherweight (despite being 3lbs out the handicap), in a race that might not take a huge amount of winning.
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Have gone in again at 80/1, but fear it’s good money after bad.
 
I’ve got Hystery Bere and Barrichello in that. And, of course, I always back Phil’s horses. Money coming for Take it Easy now…
 
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simmo said:
Where is Desert orchid? Hasn't been seen since euro offended him on the 16th. I hope he feels better about being on here soon.
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Yes hope he's ok.

His recent adsence might not be anything to do with that though. Lets hope he comes back especially before Cheltenham in March!
 
Have had a very small each-way bet on Zanahiyr (66/1) in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

His last run over (a shade further than) 2m was when finishing 4.5L third to Honeysuckle in the Champion Hurdle. Since then, he's been tried at 2m4f a couple of times and 3m once, looking a stone-cold non-stayer in all three outings.

I think he's mildly interesting returned back to 2m on Sunday. If Honeysuckle has started to regress (I'm not entirely convinced of this yet) and - importantly - he can run-up to the best of 2m his form, then he can possibly give the mare a race. Whether that will be enough to trouble State Man or Vauban I'm not sure, but - I dunno - I'm just not sure as to the level this pair have reached yet.

I clearly need a few things to go my way to hit with even the place part of the bet, but I think Leopardstown suits him (one win and two seconds in his starts there at 2m), and I can see him out-running his odds.
 
Zegos Surprise is capable having changed stables stwice in recent times, 32 and drifting, worth a little in the 4 tbp meerkat nearer the orf.
 
The Little Yank, 3:40 Leopardstown tomorrow at 66/1.

A not lucky third, in the same race last year at 80/1. He’s a consistent sort, and PP paying 6 places.
 
Maxbet said:
El Fabiolo didn't break out of a canter, got tight at one or two but was very impressive...
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Tanlic said:
I found nothing impressive about El Fabiolo .....Appreciate impressed me much more and does look like a Cheltenham sort to me
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Tanlic said:
This is getting mixed up...to date for me Appreicate It is the most likely Cheltenham winner........all we need to know now is where WPM decides to run him
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Maxbet said:
Get My Drift was beaten 15 Lengths by Appreciate It on Monday. He was head in front of Colonel mustard the time before. A fit Colonel Mustard was pulverized by El Fabiolo who never came out of a canter.....

Find it hard on all evidence to understand your reasoning, if you get my drift....
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archie said:
For anyone who gives them credence, I note that El Fabiolo was given an RPR of 159 for Fairyhouse. That would be the same as Jonbon for his chasing debut and 5 higher than Appreciate It.

I'm not a fan of RPRs but I do sympathize with their having to rate novice debuts. In this case, you'd assume that it's done via Colonel Mustard but it's only guesswork.
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granger said:
Arkle will be a great race
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granger said:
Arkle will be a great race
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granger said:
If novice chasers of this quality don't excite you..
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Marb said:
Only takes 2 horses to make a great race apparantly.
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I only see two so far!!!

Oh Tanlic...you only see what you want to see...
 
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"Seventh! Bastat."

Followed u in LM, darn thing happened 5 times to me yesterday - decent odds 4,5 r 6 places making it worth finding out .... every one came in 5th, 6th or 7th,all exactly one place short, painful to watch that last place go as the line beckoned

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If Aurora Thunder can regain the form from around this time last year, the 40-1 off a featherweight in the 2.55 at Musselburgh will be a reasonable risk. Might even go 50 or 66 given one or two of the names higher in the weights.

Reports from Lucinda suggest she's been going well enough at home, and it's not hard to see the possibility that (out of the 6 or so at the lowest odds) one or two may not really be up to it, and two or three have (arguably) questionable enough profiles for this course/number of runners/weight carried in context.
 
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There’s money going on Charlie Stout in the 2.40 at Leopardstown. I backed it at 66/1 and I think its price was even bigger than that. It’s about 28/1 now. It was my 2nd rated horse in the race but I hadn’t taken into account that it was running from out of the handicap. I was surprised to see it blue across the board on oddschecker.
 
Taunton 3.00
Dead Right can show the 20/1 is too big here. Was beaten out of sight at Doncaster but has run well at sharp right handed courses before. First time cheekpieces might help. 11yo now so on the decline but worth a go at the price


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viking said:
Taunton 3.00
Dead Right can show the 20/1 is too big here. Was beaten out of sight at Doncaster but has run well at sharp right handed courses before. First time cheekpieces might help. 11yo now so on the decline but worth a go at the price


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You were dead right.well done.
 
viking said:
Taunton 3.00
Dead Right can show the 20/1 is too big here. Was beaten out of sight at Doncaster but has run well at sharp right handed courses before. First time cheekpieces might help. 11yo now so on the decline but worth a go at the price


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Tremendous, Vike. :thumbsup:
 
Thanks fellas
I was hoping he might stay on for 2nd up the run-in but Neon Moon stopped as if shot so a nice bonus


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Very well spotted, Viking.

A shame we won't be playing up some of the winnings on Iceo, but the day will come!
 
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