The 2024 Longshot Thread

Yep I guess that was possible. Given the Horton yard is Newmarket-based (I think/pretty sure), and they surely want to get some prize money out of Navagio this season, plus the Haydock race is valuable enough to want to win in its own right - the fact they've gone the Haydock route suggests they will be confident enough (it was obviously always looking an easier to win race than the cavalry charge). The Lincoln run says he could win at Haydock comfortably and he seems OK away from a straight track.

JH had Is I Right entered in the following maiden, allowing the deduction that he might well go there two up. Note that Is I Right is currently 125-1 Hills and had an entry in the Goffs Million :) Clearly they might have realised he's not up to that and his purchase price suggests unlikely he would have been, but on paper nothing in this race screams out unbeatable. He'll probably turn out to be much better than shown so far at some point.
 
I'm going to row in with EBT's Guard at 100-1 with a few

Willie Muir's runners in big races can cause surprises. The run at Goodwood a couple back says some ability is there (Treasure Time behind, and may well have been in the first 6 in the betting if running here), EBT's will likely have no problem with the ground.
 
Longchamp 4.40, La Foret tomorrow.
King Gold. In good form last year winning a group 1 on soft to heavy. Ran OK in this last season on much quicker ground. I imagine being brought along steadily for another tilt. 66/1 4 places.
 
I might look silly for posting this having backed the horse yesterday and then being called away before I could mention it on here, as it might not run, but I took 66/1 Bashful Boy fr the Ces.

It was a good third last year and is two pounds lower. It looks to me like it has been targeting the race and had a recent blow over hurdles.
 
Quote David Pipe on Monday..."I would not be surprised if he were to run well again at the track on good ground. We do need a few horses not to be declared to ensure we get a run, but we plan to go, should we get in"

It was officially soft last year but looked more like good to me, with a bit of give. I think that when DP says 'good' above, he really does mean 'good' as opposed to 'on the suitable side'.

Had a slightly different preparation this time, perhaps intentionally.
 
chaumi said:
Quote David Pipe on Monday..."I would not be surprised if he were to run well again at the track on good ground. We do need a few horses not to be declared to ensure we get a run, but we plan to go, should we get in"

It was officially soft last year but looked more like good to me, with a bit of give. I think that when DP says 'good' above, he really does mean 'good' as opposed to 'on the suitable side'.

Had a slightly different preparation this time, perhaps intentionally.
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Already mentioned him in the ante post thread. Anna Burina is another who took the eye. Very useful hurdler. Fair looking mark here. Interesting if the ground is half decent.
See what tomorrow brings.
 
Diol Ker. Veterans chase Chepstow Friday. Very well handicapped if Evan Williams can get a tune out of him, at a course, where he likes to have winners.
25/1 can be had.
 
Robicheaux said:
Already mentioned him in the ante post thread. Anna Burina is another who took the eye. Very useful hurdler. Fair looking mark here. Interesting if the ground is half decent.
See what tomorrow brings.
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Apologies, Robi, I'm not following many threads closely out here.
 
Fillies mile tomorrow. Had an ew bet on Califonia Dreamer. Can't ignore that 80/1. Can't understand the price either, considering she has comfortably finished in front of January who is somehow only 5s.
A close up 3rd to Babouche + Camille Pissaro, is another good effort.
Too big a price !
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cambridgeshire - Empirestateofmind 66/1, 6 places - well in on its best form, very lightly raced this season (only two runs so has it had issues or have they been preserving a good mark?) so the price is too big for me not to take. On my figures it's as well handicapped as Bopedro is on its best form.

Also - Navagio 100/1 6 places - blue pretty much across the board. Unlucky in the Lincoln off 96, woeful since, off 91 here. Another I can't not back.
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Couldn't be arsed to look past the Old Rowley today but I see ESOM has won at a nice price at York.
 
Newmarket 1.15 Savvy Victory. He's a bit of an enigma to me these days but if he puts it all in he could run well. 25s + too big each way with the eight runners.
 
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Last race Ascot - Popmaster 50/1 - I’ve felt all season this fellow has a major handicap in him but haven’t studied this race in any depth so really just sickness insurance in case today happens to be the day. Not sure about the trip or ground but am sure it is a lot better than its mark despite unconvincing form.
 
Marb said:
Can Kind Of Blue reverse form with Montassib on Champions Day at Ascot? They've both shortened to first and second fav in the ante post market. I'd prefer Kind Of Blue myself. Open to more improvement.
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I forgot I wrote this, or didn't see it through. I was happy to see him win anyway.
 
To be honest, I think Montassib is seriously under-rated despite his profile. The type that only just does enough to get up and win narrowly.
 
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