The Derby 2008
- Thread starter Harbinger
- Start date
trackside528
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I must say the lack of support for Frozen Fire is quite disconcerting in terms of the strength of the Dante. That said, I thought Twice over ran pretty much to form and Tartan Bearer is the type of horse that ticks virtually all of the right boxes for me.
imagine
At the Start
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Certainly some interesting developments over the last few days.
Personally I think that most people connected with NA probably thought at the begining of the season that he'd be a dual classic winner by now. It seems now that this isn't the case they're maybe going for the ''consolation prize'' as such - without meaning to cause offence about the quality of the Derby - but maybe they're trying, with an eye on his future stud career, to aim for a dual derby winner (if he were to win the head to The Curragh)? I also don't believe he was left in as a 'mistake' and the situation could have been handled better from the punters' point of view however, it's the owner's choice and hopefully he'll be able to play a part in making this years one a good one.
I'm not sure myself that he's capable of winning, I think maybe something else might progress past him but I haven't got a clue which other horse that might be!
Personally I think that most people connected with NA probably thought at the begining of the season that he'd be a dual classic winner by now. It seems now that this isn't the case they're maybe going for the ''consolation prize'' as such - without meaning to cause offence about the quality of the Derby - but maybe they're trying, with an eye on his future stud career, to aim for a dual derby winner (if he were to win the head to The Curragh)? I also don't believe he was left in as a 'mistake' and the situation could have been handled better from the punters' point of view however, it's the owner's choice and hopefully he'll be able to play a part in making this years one a good one.
I'm not sure myself that he's capable of winning, I think maybe something else might progress past him but I haven't got a clue which other horse that might be!
Credit to Paddy Power who have answered Paul Kealy's plea in today's Post by adding a 20% bonus to all bets struck ante-post with them on the Derby between 21st April and 2nd June to reflect Bolger's shenanigans with New Approach, calling it a "Rule 4 in reverse". It turns my 16/1 Tajaaweed with them into 19.2/1. They didn't have to do it. We're quick to criticise bookies a lot of the time and we should be prepared to praise them when they do something like this.
Shadow Leader
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Lets hope all the others follow suit - the 33/1 on King Of Rome will look even better with a 20% bonus!!!!!!!
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think a lot of punters are over-thinking this. The horse with the best form had a superb run first time out over a trip too short and then was undone by horrible ground next time out over the same inadequate distance. He`ll have his ground for the first time this season and the extra 4 furlongs he`s been crying out for. He was 6.6 on Betfair on the 16th April and is now 6.4. Boots should be filled.
Whats that distant rumble I can hear?
Why its hoardes of bookies falling over themselves to follow Paddy Power
Yeah... right
Credit to Paddy Power though, and coming on the back of their £50 Wednesday refund at Cheltenham, I'm actually starting to warm to thm.
Agree NA has best form. but don't agree with he was beaten by horrible ground and inadequate distance st Curragh
As far as i can make out, he ran as he did in English version and he was simply beaten by the better horse and in hindsight, i think if Murtagh had not had Henry way off pace at Newmarket we would probably have seen Henry win English in a similr style to what he did at Curragh
Anyway on to NA and Derby
If you use ability shown so far, NA should be Derby fav
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
And that`s all you can go on really. Especially as he`s bred to stay as well.
The Weekenders verdict;
Cullinan - Casual Conquest
Winstanley - Tartan Bearer (Curtain Call nb)
Segal - Curtain Call
Mordin - Casual Conquest (New Approach lay)
Sexton - Tartan Bearer
Edwards - New Approach
Milnes - Tartan Bearer
Barr - Casual Conquest
Molloy - New Approach
Whitehouse-Jones - Casual Conquest
Hunter - Tartan Bearer
So they reckon it's a 2 and a half horse race
Casual Conquest = 4
Tartan Bearer = 4
New Approach = 2
Cullinan - Casual Conquest
Winstanley - Tartan Bearer (Curtain Call nb)
Segal - Curtain Call
Mordin - Casual Conquest (New Approach lay)
Sexton - Tartan Bearer
Edwards - New Approach
Milnes - Tartan Bearer
Barr - Casual Conquest
Molloy - New Approach
Whitehouse-Jones - Casual Conquest
Hunter - Tartan Bearer
So they reckon it's a 2 and a half horse race
Casual Conquest = 4
Tartan Bearer = 4
New Approach = 2
What always cheeses me off slightly is the little block they run the next week that says something to the effect of "the best palce for winners. Last weeks selections included"..... (a list of horses invariably 5/2 and shorter, whilst skipping over all their losers). Strangely I can't see last weeks piece of self-gongratulatory posturing though. Could it be that the bigger winners were put up by a journo doing a holiday cover for Winstanley? (Eddie Freemantle)
For those interested, this appears in today’s RU under the different headline New Approach has a perfect blend of speed and stamina
Dramatic change of heart can pay for connections of New Approach, while Casual Conquest also commits to Epsom in a revitalised thriller
Bolger U-turn can see New Approach claim Classic recompense for Princess Haya
UNLIKE LAST YEAR, when the Vodafone Derby winner Authorized stood out like a sore thumb on both form and Dosage credentials, the picture this year had looked more of a puzzle. Several had similar claims in terms of stamina potential and the bulk of the form looked much of a muchness. The ante-post market had been further muddied by a couple of leading contenders needing to be supplemented (Casual Conquest and Doctor Fremantle) and another (New Approach) apparently left in “by mistake”. With the news that dual Classic runner-up New Approach (a colt screaming out for middle distances) is to line up in the premier Classic and that Casual Conquest has also committed to Epsom that picture has changed.
Contenders for the Derby require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of about 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going, how well the horse has been prepared for the race and simply how good it is to begin with.
The accompanying table shows 16 of the 18 left in at the five-day confirmation stage – Maidstone Mixture and Bouguereau are excluded from the table as both have inadequate points totals (just 8 points each) making any reading unreliable. As usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).
2008 Derby contenders
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Alan Devonshire (Mtoto/High Top) 0-0-11-9-10 = 30, 0.22, -0.97
Tartan Bearer* (Spectrum/Generous) 2-1-12-7-2 = 24 0.60, -0.25
Washington Irving (Montjeu/Shirley Heights) 3-1-14-6-4 = 28, 0.65, -0.25
Casual Conquest (Hernando/Kris) 4-0-13-3-6 = 26, 0.68, -0.27
Bashkirov (Galileo/Shirley Heights) 5-1-18-6-4 = 34, 0.79, -0.09
Doctor Fremantle* (Sadler’s Wells/Rainbow Quest) 7-1-31-13-0 = 52 0.82, 0.04
Curtain Call (Sadler’s Wells/Darshaan) 6-1-24-9-2 = 42, 0.83, 0.00
New Approach (Galileo/Ahonoora) 5-0-7-6-0 = 18, 0.89, 0.22
Alessandro Volta (Montjeu/Machiavellian) 7-0-14-5-2 = 28, 1.00, 0.18
Frozen Fire (Montjeu/Woodman) 8-0-16-4-0 = 28, 1.33, 0.43
Tajaaweed (Dynaformer/Zilzal) 7-3-25-0-3 = 38, 1.45, 0.29
Bronze Cannon (Lemon Drop Kid/Markofesteem)6-0-10-1-1 = 18, 1.57, 0.50
King Of Rome (Montjeu/Forty Niner) 10-2-13-4-1 = 30, 1.61, 0.53
Kandahar Run (Rock Of Gibraltar/Kenmare) 2-2-7-1-0 = 12, 1.67, 0.42
Rio De La Plata (Rahy/Ahmad) 8-1-10-1-2 = 22, 1.75, 0.55
River Proud (Proud Citizen/River Special) 5-4-8-3-0 = 20, 1.86, 0.55
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
2008 Derby contenders
From his Freemason Lodge Stables at Newmarket Sir Michael Stoute is responsible for three Derby trial winners in Tartan Bearer, Doctor Fremantle and Tajaaweed.
Tartan Bearer has been successful in both of his starts this term, following up his maiden win at Leicester with success in the Dante Stakes, where he proved too good for Aidan O’Brien’s Frozen Fire and Henry Cecil’s Twice Over. The Spectrum colt is a brother to Golan and Gift Range, being out of the Generous mare Highland Gift. Golan finished runner-up to Galileo in the Derby after taking the 2,000 Guineas and subsequently won the King George. Tartan Bearer appears near the head of our table on a negative CD and a DI of 0.60, giving him more than enough stamina for his Epsom test.
Doctor Fremantle justified favouritism when landing the Chester Vase from the Michael Jarvis-trained All The Aces. He had previously been beaten a neck by John Gosden’s Bronze Cannon in a Newmarket handicap. The Sadler’s Wells colt has finished in the first two in his five starts and stays 12 furlongs well. He has just the sort of blend of speed and stamina that you would expect from a Derby winner and has been supplemented for the race.
Tajaaweed won the Dee Stakes at Chester from the Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer (the subsequent winner of a Listed race at Newmarket) and Achill Island (sent to the French Derby, where he finished at the back). Last term the Dynaformer colt won on his debut at Nottingham, but struggled in Group 1 company when finishing down the field in the Racing Post Trophy. Reportedly working well at home and not without chances, he just makes our threshold on stamina criteria.
Weld hopeful
The unbeaten Casual Conquest has more than enough stamina to see out the mile-and-a-half. The Hernando colt dismissed Washington Irving and Moiqen in impressive style to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown by six lengths. On the recommendation of trainer Dermot Weld connections have forked out the £75,000 to supplement him despite worries over his inexperience (he has only appeared twice, winning both times at Leopardstown).
Curtain Call is another who will improve for stepping up to 12 furlongs, being by Sadler’s Wells out of a Darshaan mare. Luca Cumani’s charge won a three-runner conditions stakes race at Nottingham this season by a convincing six lengths from Mark Johnston’s Drill Sergeant. He was subsequently a late withdrawal from the Lingfield Derby trial due to firm ground. The Sadler’s Wells colt split New Approach and Henrythenavigator in the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh last term before returning to the same course to win the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes. He finished last season at Doncaster when fifth to Ibn Khaldun in the Racing Post Trophy. He is expected to improve again at the Derby trip and has already shown decent form.
Ballydoyle squad
Aidan O’Brien is responsible for five of the remaining 18. Alessandro Volta won a Listed race at Leopardstown at the tail end of last season. The Montjeu colt was a beaten favourite when fourth (saddle slipped) to Moiqen on his reappearance this term in the Ballysax Stakes but subsequently made amends by holding off stablemate King Of Rome in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Washington Irving is still a maiden but is one who will improve for stepping up in trip. However, he would have to show significant improvement on his effort behind Casual Conquest at Leopardstown to figure here.
A more realistic proposition from Ballydoyle could come in the shape of Dante runner-up Frozen Fire, although that one has shown recent market weakness. After winning a 14-runner maiden at Gowran Park last term he finished a well-beaten eighth at Group 1 level in the Racing Post Trophy. He left that form behind with a solid reappearance in the Dante, just failing to get to Tartan Bearer by a head.
In terms of ability the dual 2,000 Guineas winner, Henrythenavigator, was the clear pick of the O’Brien team. The negatives against him were the trip and the likely going, neither of which he was likely to relish. As mentioned in my 2,000 Guineas article last month, the Kingmambo colt is brother to Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he was certain to improve when stepping up to a mile. However, a mile-and-a-half could well be beyond him. Sadler’s Wells is his dam sire and gives him a chance of getting it, while his sire Kingmambo is able to throw up middle-distance horses when matched to the right mare. The prevailing easy going has scuppered his participation, however, and he has been taken out.
Bashkirov makes up the Ballydoyle team with Achill Island having run in the French Derby. Bashkirov is a maiden who finished fourth behind Moiqen and Alessandro Volta at Navan last term and the Galileo colt has made little impression this term.
The John Gosden-trained Bronze Cannon beat Chester Vase winner Doctor Fremantle a neck at level weights in a handicap over 10 furlongs at Newmarket earlier this season and followed up over the same course and distance at the end of May. With a DI of 1.57 the Lemon Drop Kid colt is unlikely to fully see out the trip as well as some others here.
Henry Cecil’s remaining chance of landing his fifth Derby rests with Kandahar Run now that the beaten Dante favourite Twice Over has been scratched from the race. The Rock Of Gibraltar colt has finished first or second in his five appearances to date, the latest of which was in Listed company over 10 furlongs at Newmarket. He has reportedly been catching pigeons at home, but distances short of 12 furlongs are likely to prove optimum for him.
French 2,000 Guineas runner-up Rio De La Plata will be partnered by Frankie Dettori for Godolphin in the Derby. While the Rahy colt should prove effective at 10 furlongs, 12 furlongs may well stretch his stamina. Godolphin’s other hope Ibn Khaldun, a late withdrawal from the French Derby due to lameness, had better prospects of seeing out the trip at Chantilly than at Epsom.
The Mark Tompkins-trained Alan Devonshire appears at the head of our table and the Mtoto colt will certainly stay (beyond middle distances in fact). He finished a detached fourth of five to Alessandro Volta and King Of Rome in the Lingfield Derby trial and looks out of his depth here.
Peter Chapple-Hyam’s charge, Bouguereau, won his maiden at Pontefract this term and was subsequently beaten a neck by the Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer in a conditions stakes race at Newbury. The Alhaarth colt finished seventh in the Italian Derby over 11 furlongs on his latest outing.
The Fergus Wilson-owned Maidstone Mixture, whose Chantilly trainer Richard Chotard had refused to run in the Derby, has a hopeless cause. Hopefully the grey, by Linamix, who recently won a hurdles race at Strasbourg, will stay out of the way of the others.
Dramatic U-turn
The dramatic news that New Approach will run in the Derby providing the ground is “good or softer” revitalises a Derby market that needed a shot in the arm. Trainer Jim Bolger had previously said that New Approach had been left in “by mistake” (his target being the Irish Derby), which seemed a pity (if barely plausible) as the Galileo colt looks to be better suited to the mile-and-a-half at Epsom than to either of the English or Irish 2,000 Guineas, in which he finished an admirable runner-up on both occasions over an inadequate trip. The move makes sense for last season’s champion juvenile, who has just missed out on two Classics this term and is screaming out for middle distances. His DI of 0.89 gives him just the right blend of speed and stamina for the premier Classic. The colt’s owner Princess Haya Of Jordan (and her husband Sheikh Mohammed) no doubt had some say in this outcome, which is to be applauded.
River Proud is a surprise supplement to the Derby field. Last season’s Group 3 Tattersall Stakes winner reappeared in the Craven when a well-beaten fourth to Twice Over. Paul Cole’s charge subsequently ran a blinder from a bad draw in the French Guineas to be placed third and was considered by some to be unlucky to have not reached at least runner-up spot in that. He looks unlikely to get the Derby trip, however.
Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past ten winners is 1.12, but those slightly below this figure down to around and below 1.0 appear best suited to the stamina requirements of the race (see table).
Dosage of previous winners
Year Colt DI
2007 Authorized* 0.86* (from 1.00)
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 Kris Kin* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 High Chaparral 0.82
2001 Galileo 1.11
2000 Sinndar 1.56
1999 Oath 1.86
1998 High Rise 0.82
Average 1.12
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
The Derby winner typically comes from a band of below DI 1 up to about 1.4. The winners who matched this requirement over the past decade are: Authorized (0.86), Sir Percy (0.54), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82).
Shortlist
Using this indicator we arrive at the following shortlist of those with the required stamina for this year’s race: Tartan Bearer (0.60), Washington Irving (0.65), Casual Conquest (0.68), Bashkirov (0.79), Doctor Fremantle (0.82), Curtain Call (0.83), New Approach (0.89), Alessandro Volta (1.00), Frozen Fire (1.33) and Tajaaweed (1.45).
Of these the two that stand out are New Approach and the unexposed Casual Conquest. The three Freemason Lodge contenders (Doctor Fremantle, Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed), the Ballydoyle team, and the likes of Curtain Call, Kandahar Run and Rio De La Plata, ensure excellent strength in depth. The Derby field once more is something to get excited about – and New Approach can show them the way.
Verdict
1) New Approach
2) Casual Conquest
3) Doctor Fremantle
4) Tartan Bearer
5) Curtain Call
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
THE DOSAGE SYSTEM is a key tool in the assessment of the distance potential of racehorses, based on certain sires (only those that demonstrate prepotent influence) in the first four generations of the subject individual’s pedigree. It is especially useful when form information is either scant or absent. It also helps in identifying if a racehorse is being campaigned over a less effective distance than it is ideally suited.
Three statistics are generated by the Dosage system: a Dosage Profile (DP), a Dosage Index (DI) and a Centre of Distribution (CD).
Qualifying chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) are divided into five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. The categories correspond to a range of distance potential, from Brilliant (most speed, least stamina) to Professional (least speed, most stamina). Classic represents a balance of speed and stamina. Chefs may be assigned to one or two categories, with points split between the categories. A chef-de-race in the first generation is assigned 16 points, decreasing to eight, four and two points, to account for the diminishing influence of sires further back in the pedigree.
Dramatic change of heart can pay for connections of New Approach, while Casual Conquest also commits to Epsom in a revitalised thriller
Bolger U-turn can see New Approach claim Classic recompense for Princess Haya
UNLIKE LAST YEAR, when the Vodafone Derby winner Authorized stood out like a sore thumb on both form and Dosage credentials, the picture this year had looked more of a puzzle. Several had similar claims in terms of stamina potential and the bulk of the form looked much of a muchness. The ante-post market had been further muddied by a couple of leading contenders needing to be supplemented (Casual Conquest and Doctor Fremantle) and another (New Approach) apparently left in “by mistake”. With the news that dual Classic runner-up New Approach (a colt screaming out for middle distances) is to line up in the premier Classic and that Casual Conquest has also committed to Epsom that picture has changed.
Contenders for the Derby require a blend of speed and stamina that conforms to a Dosage index (DI) of about 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of around zero – or the best fit to this standard in relative terms of those taking part. In addition to stamina suitability (to which the Dosage system confines itself) other factors will of course play their part – not least the ability to handle the track and the prevailing going, how well the horse has been prepared for the race and simply how good it is to begin with.
The accompanying table shows 16 of the 18 left in at the five-day confirmation stage – Maidstone Mixture and Bouguereau are excluded from the table as both have inadequate points totals (just 8 points each) making any reading unreliable. As usual the table is arranged with those showing the most stamina potential at the top and the least at the bottom, ranked in order of the Dosage Index (DI).
2008 Derby contenders
Colt sire/dam sire Profile DI CD
Alan Devonshire (Mtoto/High Top) 0-0-11-9-10 = 30, 0.22, -0.97
Tartan Bearer* (Spectrum/Generous) 2-1-12-7-2 = 24 0.60, -0.25
Washington Irving (Montjeu/Shirley Heights) 3-1-14-6-4 = 28, 0.65, -0.25
Casual Conquest (Hernando/Kris) 4-0-13-3-6 = 26, 0.68, -0.27
Bashkirov (Galileo/Shirley Heights) 5-1-18-6-4 = 34, 0.79, -0.09
Doctor Fremantle* (Sadler’s Wells/Rainbow Quest) 7-1-31-13-0 = 52 0.82, 0.04
Curtain Call (Sadler’s Wells/Darshaan) 6-1-24-9-2 = 42, 0.83, 0.00
New Approach (Galileo/Ahonoora) 5-0-7-6-0 = 18, 0.89, 0.22
Alessandro Volta (Montjeu/Machiavellian) 7-0-14-5-2 = 28, 1.00, 0.18
Frozen Fire (Montjeu/Woodman) 8-0-16-4-0 = 28, 1.33, 0.43
Tajaaweed (Dynaformer/Zilzal) 7-3-25-0-3 = 38, 1.45, 0.29
Bronze Cannon (Lemon Drop Kid/Markofesteem)6-0-10-1-1 = 18, 1.57, 0.50
King Of Rome (Montjeu/Forty Niner) 10-2-13-4-1 = 30, 1.61, 0.53
Kandahar Run (Rock Of Gibraltar/Kenmare) 2-2-7-1-0 = 12, 1.67, 0.42
Rio De La Plata (Rahy/Ahmad) 8-1-10-1-2 = 22, 1.75, 0.55
River Proud (Proud Citizen/River Special) 5-4-8-3-0 = 20, 1.86, 0.55
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
2008 Derby contenders
From his Freemason Lodge Stables at Newmarket Sir Michael Stoute is responsible for three Derby trial winners in Tartan Bearer, Doctor Fremantle and Tajaaweed.
Tartan Bearer has been successful in both of his starts this term, following up his maiden win at Leicester with success in the Dante Stakes, where he proved too good for Aidan O’Brien’s Frozen Fire and Henry Cecil’s Twice Over. The Spectrum colt is a brother to Golan and Gift Range, being out of the Generous mare Highland Gift. Golan finished runner-up to Galileo in the Derby after taking the 2,000 Guineas and subsequently won the King George. Tartan Bearer appears near the head of our table on a negative CD and a DI of 0.60, giving him more than enough stamina for his Epsom test.
Doctor Fremantle justified favouritism when landing the Chester Vase from the Michael Jarvis-trained All The Aces. He had previously been beaten a neck by John Gosden’s Bronze Cannon in a Newmarket handicap. The Sadler’s Wells colt has finished in the first two in his five starts and stays 12 furlongs well. He has just the sort of blend of speed and stamina that you would expect from a Derby winner and has been supplemented for the race.
Tajaaweed won the Dee Stakes at Chester from the Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer (the subsequent winner of a Listed race at Newmarket) and Achill Island (sent to the French Derby, where he finished at the back). Last term the Dynaformer colt won on his debut at Nottingham, but struggled in Group 1 company when finishing down the field in the Racing Post Trophy. Reportedly working well at home and not without chances, he just makes our threshold on stamina criteria.
Weld hopeful
The unbeaten Casual Conquest has more than enough stamina to see out the mile-and-a-half. The Hernando colt dismissed Washington Irving and Moiqen in impressive style to take the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown by six lengths. On the recommendation of trainer Dermot Weld connections have forked out the £75,000 to supplement him despite worries over his inexperience (he has only appeared twice, winning both times at Leopardstown).
Curtain Call is another who will improve for stepping up to 12 furlongs, being by Sadler’s Wells out of a Darshaan mare. Luca Cumani’s charge won a three-runner conditions stakes race at Nottingham this season by a convincing six lengths from Mark Johnston’s Drill Sergeant. He was subsequently a late withdrawal from the Lingfield Derby trial due to firm ground. The Sadler’s Wells colt split New Approach and Henrythenavigator in the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh last term before returning to the same course to win the Group 2 Juddmonte Beresford Stakes. He finished last season at Doncaster when fifth to Ibn Khaldun in the Racing Post Trophy. He is expected to improve again at the Derby trip and has already shown decent form.
Ballydoyle squad
Aidan O’Brien is responsible for five of the remaining 18. Alessandro Volta won a Listed race at Leopardstown at the tail end of last season. The Montjeu colt was a beaten favourite when fourth (saddle slipped) to Moiqen on his reappearance this term in the Ballysax Stakes but subsequently made amends by holding off stablemate King Of Rome in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Washington Irving is still a maiden but is one who will improve for stepping up in trip. However, he would have to show significant improvement on his effort behind Casual Conquest at Leopardstown to figure here.
A more realistic proposition from Ballydoyle could come in the shape of Dante runner-up Frozen Fire, although that one has shown recent market weakness. After winning a 14-runner maiden at Gowran Park last term he finished a well-beaten eighth at Group 1 level in the Racing Post Trophy. He left that form behind with a solid reappearance in the Dante, just failing to get to Tartan Bearer by a head.
In terms of ability the dual 2,000 Guineas winner, Henrythenavigator, was the clear pick of the O’Brien team. The negatives against him were the trip and the likely going, neither of which he was likely to relish. As mentioned in my 2,000 Guineas article last month, the Kingmambo colt is brother to Queen Cleopatra, an eight-furlong winner at three and Group 1-placed at eight to 10 furlongs. With a DI of 1.92 and four stamina points he was certain to improve when stepping up to a mile. However, a mile-and-a-half could well be beyond him. Sadler’s Wells is his dam sire and gives him a chance of getting it, while his sire Kingmambo is able to throw up middle-distance horses when matched to the right mare. The prevailing easy going has scuppered his participation, however, and he has been taken out.
Bashkirov makes up the Ballydoyle team with Achill Island having run in the French Derby. Bashkirov is a maiden who finished fourth behind Moiqen and Alessandro Volta at Navan last term and the Galileo colt has made little impression this term.
The John Gosden-trained Bronze Cannon beat Chester Vase winner Doctor Fremantle a neck at level weights in a handicap over 10 furlongs at Newmarket earlier this season and followed up over the same course and distance at the end of May. With a DI of 1.57 the Lemon Drop Kid colt is unlikely to fully see out the trip as well as some others here.
Henry Cecil’s remaining chance of landing his fifth Derby rests with Kandahar Run now that the beaten Dante favourite Twice Over has been scratched from the race. The Rock Of Gibraltar colt has finished first or second in his five appearances to date, the latest of which was in Listed company over 10 furlongs at Newmarket. He has reportedly been catching pigeons at home, but distances short of 12 furlongs are likely to prove optimum for him.
French 2,000 Guineas runner-up Rio De La Plata will be partnered by Frankie Dettori for Godolphin in the Derby. While the Rahy colt should prove effective at 10 furlongs, 12 furlongs may well stretch his stamina. Godolphin’s other hope Ibn Khaldun, a late withdrawal from the French Derby due to lameness, had better prospects of seeing out the trip at Chantilly than at Epsom.
The Mark Tompkins-trained Alan Devonshire appears at the head of our table and the Mtoto colt will certainly stay (beyond middle distances in fact). He finished a detached fourth of five to Alessandro Volta and King Of Rome in the Lingfield Derby trial and looks out of his depth here.
Peter Chapple-Hyam’s charge, Bouguereau, won his maiden at Pontefract this term and was subsequently beaten a neck by the Henry Cecil-trained Unnefer in a conditions stakes race at Newbury. The Alhaarth colt finished seventh in the Italian Derby over 11 furlongs on his latest outing.
The Fergus Wilson-owned Maidstone Mixture, whose Chantilly trainer Richard Chotard had refused to run in the Derby, has a hopeless cause. Hopefully the grey, by Linamix, who recently won a hurdles race at Strasbourg, will stay out of the way of the others.
Dramatic U-turn
The dramatic news that New Approach will run in the Derby providing the ground is “good or softer” revitalises a Derby market that needed a shot in the arm. Trainer Jim Bolger had previously said that New Approach had been left in “by mistake” (his target being the Irish Derby), which seemed a pity (if barely plausible) as the Galileo colt looks to be better suited to the mile-and-a-half at Epsom than to either of the English or Irish 2,000 Guineas, in which he finished an admirable runner-up on both occasions over an inadequate trip. The move makes sense for last season’s champion juvenile, who has just missed out on two Classics this term and is screaming out for middle distances. His DI of 0.89 gives him just the right blend of speed and stamina for the premier Classic. The colt’s owner Princess Haya Of Jordan (and her husband Sheikh Mohammed) no doubt had some say in this outcome, which is to be applauded.
River Proud is a surprise supplement to the Derby field. Last season’s Group 3 Tattersall Stakes winner reappeared in the Craven when a well-beaten fourth to Twice Over. Paul Cole’s charge subsequently ran a blinder from a bad draw in the French Guineas to be placed third and was considered by some to be unlucky to have not reached at least runner-up spot in that. He looks unlikely to get the Derby trip, however.
Speed/stamina balance
The optimum blend of speed and stamina for the Derby is often expressed as a Dosage index (DI) of 1.0 and a centre of distribution (CD) of zero. The average DI for the past ten winners is 1.12, but those slightly below this figure down to around and below 1.0 appear best suited to the stamina requirements of the race (see table).
Dosage of previous winners
Year Colt DI
2007 Authorized* 0.86* (from 1.00)
2006 Sir Percy 0.54
2005 Motivator 1.43
2004 North Light* 1.13* (from 1.60)
2003 Kris Kin* 1.05* (from 1.34)
2002 High Chaparral 0.82
2001 Galileo 1.11
2000 Sinndar 1.56
1999 Oath 1.86
1998 High Rise 0.82
Average 1.12
* Adjusted for the inclusion of Rainbow Quest as a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (see www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/rainbow_quest.htm)
The Derby winner typically comes from a band of below DI 1 up to about 1.4. The winners who matched this requirement over the past decade are: Authorized (0.86), Sir Percy (0.54), Motivator (1.43), North Light (1.13), Kris Kin (1.05), High Chaparral (0.82), Galileo (1.11) and High-Rise (0.82).
Shortlist
Using this indicator we arrive at the following shortlist of those with the required stamina for this year’s race: Tartan Bearer (0.60), Washington Irving (0.65), Casual Conquest (0.68), Bashkirov (0.79), Doctor Fremantle (0.82), Curtain Call (0.83), New Approach (0.89), Alessandro Volta (1.00), Frozen Fire (1.33) and Tajaaweed (1.45).
Of these the two that stand out are New Approach and the unexposed Casual Conquest. The three Freemason Lodge contenders (Doctor Fremantle, Tartan Bearer and Tajaaweed), the Ballydoyle team, and the likes of Curtain Call, Kandahar Run and Rio De La Plata, ensure excellent strength in depth. The Derby field once more is something to get excited about – and New Approach can show them the way.
Verdict
1) New Approach
2) Casual Conquest
3) Doctor Fremantle
4) Tartan Bearer
5) Curtain Call
More on the Dosage system from the author and from Dr Steven Roman can be found on www.chef-de-race.com and in the book Dosage: Pedigree and Performance, published by The Russell Meerdink Company, Ltd.
THE DOSAGE SYSTEM is a key tool in the assessment of the distance potential of racehorses, based on certain sires (only those that demonstrate prepotent influence) in the first four generations of the subject individual’s pedigree. It is especially useful when form information is either scant or absent. It also helps in identifying if a racehorse is being campaigned over a less effective distance than it is ideally suited.
Three statistics are generated by the Dosage system: a Dosage Profile (DP), a Dosage Index (DI) and a Centre of Distribution (CD).
Qualifying chefs-de-race (chiefs of breed) are divided into five categories: Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional. The categories correspond to a range of distance potential, from Brilliant (most speed, least stamina) to Professional (least speed, most stamina). Classic represents a balance of speed and stamina. Chefs may be assigned to one or two categories, with points split between the categories. A chef-de-race in the first generation is assigned 16 points, decreasing to eight, four and two points, to account for the diminishing influence of sires further back in the pedigree.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 25,009
People who know me will understand my disdain and contempt for PP but even I have to admit this is very clever PR.
Euronymous and I are very much of one mind as far as the race is concerned.
Euronymous and I are very much of one mind as far as the race is concerned.
I will be backing New Approach with a fairly high degree of confidence if he gets to post unscathed. I'd be happier to take 4/1, in those circumstances, than take 5/1 now and hope for the best.
BTW Cashmans are considering all Derby bets taken when NA was considered a non-runner, as win or come second to New Approach.
BTW Cashmans are considering all Derby bets taken when NA was considered a non-runner, as win or come second to New Approach.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
Thanks, Steve. :clap:
"I'd be very surprised if Causal Conquest lost the Derby. He earned a huge speed rating from me when winning the Derrinstown stud trial with a tremedous burst of acceleration. The people who compile Racing post ratings were pretty impressed too. They gave him a rating of 118 for the win. Only three winners of the Derrinstoiwn stud trial before Casual Conquest earned RPR's of 115 or more for their success in the big race. The three in queastion were Sinndar, Galileo and High Chapparral. All three went on to win at Epsom."
In answer to the second question. Yes
"Between 1967 and 1977 eight of the 11 Derby winners prepped over 1M or less at three. Between 1978 and 1992, only five of the 15 Derby winners had prep races over a mile or less> Since 1992 only one of the 59 runners who prepped over 1m or less that season, scored at Epsom. This was Sir Percy whose short head and rather fortunate looking success later earned his jockey the Lester Award for flat ride of the year."
I like Casual Conquest A LOT, but the worry if connections clearly had doubts about his readiness mentally for this race up to recently. It would have been interesting to know would they have been as sure to supplement if they new New Approach was staying in the race after all…they did not know this at the time of supplementing.
