The Domination of Mullins & Co

Grasshopper said:
Which sums up all of our discussions/arguments about ratings nicely.

None of us work to the same scale as each other, the OH, Timeform, Raceform or my Grannie's hatpin, so we are never really comparing apples-with-apples.
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the average OHR given to a CH winner in the last 15 runnings is 169 Grass
 
The consequences of Mullins' domination for betting markets is becoming very clear . They are going to be far shorter than their form justifies just so as to minimise losses .

The absurd prices for this weeks Cotswold Chase tell all - Djakadam is rated 2 lb above Smad Place and 4lb above Many Clouds yet he is 2-5 on Saturday with 6s bar . He is a worthy favourite after his win in the John Durkan Memorial but Many Clouds was only beaten 4 lengths by Don Poli giving him 5 lb and Smad Place ran off with the Hennessy and goes well at Cheltenham.
 
Ardross said:
The consequences of Mullins' domination for betting markets is becoming very clear . They are going to be far shorter than their form justifies just so as to minimise losses .

The absurd prices for this weeks Cotswold Chase tell all - Djakadam is rated 2 lb above Smad Place and 4lb above Many Clouds yet he is 2-5 on Saturday with 6s bar . He is a worthy favourite after his win in the John Durkan Memorial but Many Clouds was only beaten 4 lengths by Don Poli giving him 5 lb and Smad Place ran off with the Hennessy and goes well at Cheltenham.
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I used to apply similar logic when evaluating Mullins hotpots and ended up learning an expensive lesson. Nowadays I've largely stopped taking them on.
 
there are a myriad of races with no Mullins hotpots in Ardross..just pick a different race rather than lining up hoss after hoss against them. Last week it was.."he hasn't met a horse like Sire De Grugy yet"..he didn't need to meet him..his form was rock solid a level above SDG.....you now lining up Dodging Bullets ..why bother trying unless you have something against one that has a real chance of beating it?

so many races to go at..

Dodging Bullets is a nice horse..so is SDG..they aren't in same league though..its like backing Championship football winner against premiership winner..yes..every blue moon one might win..whereas time spent on races where you can back a winner is just slipping you by
 
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Grey said:
I used to apply similar logic when evaluating Mullins hotpots and ended up learning an expensive lesson. Nowadays I've largely stopped taking them on.
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I would not take them on I am just observing how absurd the prices are on form as compared to reputation.
 
You should listen to Tanya Ardross. She's got a killer stat for Mullins hotpots in the UK. It'll knock your socks off!

If Min wins I wonder what price the next Mullins/Ricci novice will be for the 2017 Supreme before it's even seen a racecourse?
 
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TheBear said:
You should listen to Tanya Ardross. She's got a killer stat for Mullins hotpots in the UK. It'll knock your socks off!

If Min wins I wonder what price the next Mullins/Ricci novice will be for the 2017 Supreme before it's even seen a racecourse?
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Yes I heard that pearl of wisdom from old Tarnya .
 
granger said:
Ruby timed his exit from Nicholls very well
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It might also be thought that the desire owners have for Ruby to ride their horses plays a part - look at the quality and number of the Wylie horses Mullins has now compared to P Nicholls .
 
Good article, DG, except for the section "Spreading The Net" where he's talking bullcrap. There have always been races for good horses at the likes of Navan, Limerick, Naas and even Thurles.
 
EC1 said:
he didn't need to meet him..his form was rock solid a level above SDG
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We can all be wise after the fact EC and that's a very bad example of that...

Even if you fancied UDS to win how the hell could you come away with trash like that.

You go on about ratings when it suits you then you dismiss those very same rating.

While we now know UDS no doubt has improved since his all out win against Gods Own prior to the race he was rated 168 and SDG 169 plus he had peaked at 172

As for Dodging Bullets we have no idea how he has improved since last season when he had Sire De Grugy a lot further back than UDS did the other day.

Anyone can say an odds on shot is a certainty but people who think outside of the box deserve some respect as very often they are proven right.

I seem to remember you telling us how JP's was going to win the QMCC how did that turn out for you?

I wouldn't have given Dodging Bullets a hope in hell of winning the Champion Chase or beating Sprinter Sacre but he did both
and went through the season winning the Tingle Creek, The Clarence House and the QMCC and you think he has no chance:whistle:

Dismissing horses like him so easily is why people end up in the poor house I've seen a lot better than UDS being turned over by much less talented animal than SS and DB.
 
we can all be wise after the fact EC and that's a very bad example of that...

Even if you fancied UDS to win how the hell could you come away with trash like that.

i don't do after the fact..i have no history of it..in my reply to Ardross who said UDS hadn't met a horse of SDG level yet..on 21 Jan ..i replied....

Even if SDG is back to best though..and the last two runs don't suggest that to me..he would still have about 10lb to find with UDS imo
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thats not being wise after the event as far as i can see

You go on about ratings when it suits you then you dismiss those very same rating.

example

As for Dodging Bullets we have no idea how he has improved since last season when he had Sire De Grugy a lot further back than UDS did the other day.

was that when SDG "had gone at game"..he was in the same form as he has been lately was he?

Anyone can say an odds on shot is a certainty but people who think outside of the box deserve some respect as very often they are proven right.

I never said an odds shot was a certainty..i leave that talk to you..do you think you think outside the box?

I seem to remember you telling us how JP's was going to win the QMCC how did that turn out for you?

Shall i list all the horses you have said will win in the past 12 months?..those you have said get your bank on..they are certs

I wouldn't have given Dodging Bullets a hope in hell of winning the Champion Chase or beating Sprinter Sacre but he did both
and went through the season winning the Tingle Creek, The Clarence House and the QMCC and you think he has no chance:whistle:

no chance?..i think i said UDS will beat him imo..yes..thats what we do on here pass opinion..is that a problem? Its you who uses the words no chance and certs,,i don't

Dismissing horses like him so easily is why people end up in the poor house I've seen a lot better than UDS being turned over by much less talented animal than SS and DB.

I think my record on here makes my opinion as valid as anyone else's..i'm not in the poor house yet. I don't have the same trainer bias you have..so i'm not absolutely desperate to see UDS beat like you are. Its just another horse race to me
 
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