The Long Shot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
Have backed Vivas 25/1 generally in the handicap hurdle at Ascot tomorrow. Managed a well beaten 5th behind Jenkins over this CD lto. Was badly hampered in the process and dropped back to last which wasn't a good place to be. It was also notable that the first 4 home on that occasion were widest on the course throughout and despite being hampered he's done the best of anything that raced nearer the inside. A clear run tomorrow could see him run well in a race that doesn't look as strong and he's also tried in first time pieces.
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They team up for one today - Top Ville Ben in the 3:50 at Haydock.
Forgive him the last run, because before that he was progressive, did win on heavy so will love the ground.
He doesn't technically qualify for this thread as he's 12/1 but I remembered Moehat's comment so posted this anyway.
Strongest fancy of the day for me.
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Plenty of blue about Vivas this morning but my sole longshot for today is in the same race.
Court Minstrel is top-rated on my own figures so I really need to back him at 25/1 although there is one in the race I've also backed as a strong possibility to improve past him.
swedish chef
At the Start
Gowran Park 4.20 Letter Of Credit 25/1 Bet365 - On a line through Icanstay the selection has the beating of fav & 2nd fav - is highest rated on RPR's - the negative is he is 13yo.
7.15 Kempton Yeah Baby Yeah - 20/1 with Corals, Laddies and Paddys.
Just chancing this one with a decent draw and the first time tongue tie. May need a class drop before it shows best but off a light weight for Josie Gordon I think there are worse bets on the card.
Just chancing this one with a decent draw and the first time tongue tie. May need a class drop before it shows best but off a light weight for Josie Gordon I think there are worse bets on the card.
swedish chef
At the Start
DING DONG just had to back it again today - just become my favourite horse
Nice one. I didn’t back it last time but made no such mistake today. Probably wouldn’t have done but for your previous post so thanks for that
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Desert Orchid
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I'm not sure I'll ever get my head round Evan Williams's insistence that his horses have to be waited with out of their ground. I'm presuming it's a case of them not trying and it they are it's a dangerous game to play unless the pace up front is over-fast.
The early mistake wouldn't have helped at all (cost him at least three lengths and momentum) and he was probably being looked after from then on.
My other bet was Friday Night Light (10/1) who got a terrific ride from Scu and was only beaten by a proper job. I'm satisfied that I got a real run for my money from him.
swedish chef
At the Start
Well done Danny nice place.
Cheers mate bit gutted as I've backed Le Patriote who I was raving about the other week and had the 2 in a decent fc. Seen as Mo' was fancying the second I think I should have tried a bit of a t/c as I normally would but didn't bother this time. Still its saved me from a complete blood bath and puts me up on the day so can't ask for more than that really.
DING DONG just had to back it again today - just become my favourite horse
Tbh mate I wanted to take on Agrapart as did Des and I tried to combi fc's against him and felt a little hard done to as Boite fell and No Hasslehoff fluffed the last and those were the 2 I'd used with Donna's. Owes me nothing as it saved my day last time you put it up and glad you've kept the faith today ..what a run !
Cracking effort Dan!
swedish chef
At the Start
Nice call Dan well done.
swedish chef
At the Start
Lingfield 1.45 Lord Condi 22/1 & Bard Of Brittany 25/1
Desert Orchid
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Might as well sneak this one in here before the price goes...
As mentioned in its own thread, I've backed Theatre Territory (ew) 20/1 for Saturday's RUK Chase at Kempton.
I can't see the price lasting long after today. Then again, I thought Irish Roe would be as low as 7/2 for the Betfair
I really think that race against Mister Whitaker might be very hot form, possibly better than handicap form. The worry is that
a) the race might leave a mark (in which case she might not run)
b) she is a mare and Irish Roe reminded me of the dangers in backing mares in open company, although it was open company last time.
As mentioned in its own thread, I've backed Theatre Territory (ew) 20/1 for Saturday's RUK Chase at Kempton.
I can't see the price lasting long after today. Then again, I thought Irish Roe would be as low as 7/2 for the Betfair
I really think that race against Mister Whitaker might be very hot form, possibly better than handicap form. The worry is that
a) the race might leave a mark (in which case she might not run)
b) she is a mare and Irish Roe reminded me of the dangers in backing mares in open company, although it was open company last time.
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Nonannyimfine
Apprentice
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Spes nostra in the lucky last at wolves seems a reasonable bet. Course distance winner who likes it around here. Fanning up. 50-1 is tempting for such an appropriately named horse.
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Good luck Nonannyimfine. I had my eye on Steal The Scene for this thread from thst race but something was nagging away and I didn't pull the trigger. Not got prices to hand so not sure if it's still a qualifier.
Nonannyimfine
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Not to be tonight. Spes Nostra ran well but died in the last furlong. The long shot to be on turned out to be Indian Affair! Ah well onwards and upwards.
Desert Orchid
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Might as well sneak this one in here before the price goes...
As mentioned in its own thread, I've backed Theatre Territory (ew) 20/1 for Saturday's RUK Chase at Kempton.
I can't see the price lasting long after today. Then again, I thought Irish Roe would be as low as 7/2 for the Betfair
I really think that race against Mister Whitaker might be very hot form, possibly better than handicap form. The worry is that
a) the race might leave a mark (in which case she might not run)
b) she is a mare and Irish Roe reminded me of the dangers in backing mares in open company, although it was open company last time.
Not all bookies are priced up this morning but I see Theatre Territory is best-priced 12/1 and as low as 9/1.
Two positives, then: I look like getting a run for my money and I look like beating the price.
Well, it's a start :lol:
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
I've backed Theatre Territory on both her last 2 runs at Cheltenham so will have to do so again.
Mentioned this on the other thread, DO. It could be a red letter day for you tomorrow, with Theatre Territory. Good luck! I'm more than happy to join in at current prices.