The Long Shot Thread
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
- Start date
PRICEWISE2008
At the Start
Top pick Marb and I'm hoping you put two and two together and had a couple of quid on the fc.
swedish chef
At the Start
Well done Marble - he ran a cracker
Desert Orchid
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Missed this. Been out all day since the crack of my back.
Good shout, Marble
Good shout, Marble
Desert Orchid
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I plan to back a few longshots in the Betfair Hurdle but in the meantime I'm sneaking this one in before the prices dip.
Win double: Saphir Du Rheu 4/1 & Value At Risk 100/30 (Warwick) = 20.65/1
Both Saphir Du Rheu and Native River have to overcome near-year absences in likely soft ground but Cloudy Dream is too far behind them in the ratings to make him worth chancing. However, there is no way on God’s green earth that a) Native River should be ahead of Saphir Du Rheu in the betting or b) that they should be so far apart in the betting. I had planned to leave the race alone but at 9/2 (available on Friday afternoon) Saphir Du Rheu, despite concerns about readiness in this ground, simply merits a bet. He got an RPR of 164 when hacking up in heavy at Kelso last season so he does go in it but he might have been fitter then although with the Gold Cup only a month away he should be almost ready at this stage. He’s 6lbs better off with Native River for their good Gold Cup runs and I’m convinced SDR was merely using that race as a prep for the National. That isn’t the case this year and he’s tongue-tied for the first time. His price is simply wrong.
I’m hoping I’ve stumbled across a little bit of value in this race with Value At Risk. He was a pretty decent hurdler but obviously fragile. Since most hurdlers tend to be a fair bit better over fences – Total Recall is an extreme example – there has to be the chance that Value At Risk might be able to win this cosily.
Win double: Saphir Du Rheu 4/1 & Value At Risk 100/30 (Warwick) = 20.65/1
Both Saphir Du Rheu and Native River have to overcome near-year absences in likely soft ground but Cloudy Dream is too far behind them in the ratings to make him worth chancing. However, there is no way on God’s green earth that a) Native River should be ahead of Saphir Du Rheu in the betting or b) that they should be so far apart in the betting. I had planned to leave the race alone but at 9/2 (available on Friday afternoon) Saphir Du Rheu, despite concerns about readiness in this ground, simply merits a bet. He got an RPR of 164 when hacking up in heavy at Kelso last season so he does go in it but he might have been fitter then although with the Gold Cup only a month away he should be almost ready at this stage. He’s 6lbs better off with Native River for their good Gold Cup runs and I’m convinced SDR was merely using that race as a prep for the National. That isn’t the case this year and he’s tongue-tied for the first time. His price is simply wrong.
I’m hoping I’ve stumbled across a little bit of value in this race with Value At Risk. He was a pretty decent hurdler but obviously fragile. Since most hurdlers tend to be a fair bit better over fences – Total Recall is an extreme example – there has to be the chance that Value At Risk might be able to win this cosily.
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Desert Orchid
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In a race like the Betfair Hurdle I always try to hoover up a wee bit of value on over-priced longshots and this renewal is no different.
I really do think Irish Roe will win but I'm hoping the following will out-run their odds by some way:
Divin Bere 40/1
Charlie Parcs 40/1
Nietzsche 40/1
Project Bluebook 66/1
If I were a bookie I'd be reluctant to offer any more than 20/1 for any of them.
JP McManus usually likes to target this race but the last time he had as many reps none came close. Charli Parcs caught my eye when running up to High Bridge in the Gerry Fielden. The bare form didn’t quite amount to what he had done as a juvenile but he looked a lot better than the bare form. He’s 3lbs better off for 1¼ lengths with High Bridge before taking Ned Curtis’s claim into account. I had to look up his record but he’s 7/27 for Hendo this season, mainly in under-the-radar types of races but that’s a pretty good strike rate. Soft ground might be a concern for the horse, though. Other 5yos who I think might still show improvement from their juvenile season are Nietzsche, Divin Bere and Project Bluebook, second, third and fourth respectively in the Fred Winter and not much higher here. I took 40/1 Divin Bere earlier in the week purely on the price. Nicholls’s only runner in the most valuable handicap hurdle of the season surely shouldn’t be that kind of price.
I really do think Irish Roe will win but I'm hoping the following will out-run their odds by some way:
Divin Bere 40/1
Charlie Parcs 40/1
Nietzsche 40/1
Project Bluebook 66/1
If I were a bookie I'd be reluctant to offer any more than 20/1 for any of them.
JP McManus usually likes to target this race but the last time he had as many reps none came close. Charli Parcs caught my eye when running up to High Bridge in the Gerry Fielden. The bare form didn’t quite amount to what he had done as a juvenile but he looked a lot better than the bare form. He’s 3lbs better off for 1¼ lengths with High Bridge before taking Ned Curtis’s claim into account. I had to look up his record but he’s 7/27 for Hendo this season, mainly in under-the-radar types of races but that’s a pretty good strike rate. Soft ground might be a concern for the horse, though. Other 5yos who I think might still show improvement from their juvenile season are Nietzsche, Divin Bere and Project Bluebook, second, third and fourth respectively in the Fred Winter and not much higher here. I took 40/1 Divin Bere earlier in the week purely on the price. Nicholls’s only runner in the most valuable handicap hurdle of the season surely shouldn’t be that kind of price.
swedish chef
At the Start
Betfair Hurdle - Lough Derg Spirit 28/1 - I've found form lines through Flying Tiger that could be interpreted, my selection is better handicapped than Irish Roe? He also has the look of a horse whose rating has been look after for a race such as this.
swedish chef
At the Start
Catterick 3.05 Justforjames - 33/1 StanJames 22/1 general - looks to be on a nice mark on his hurdles form and this race looks more his level - trainer does well at track. Two average runs in better company makes his price look tempting to me.
I'm counting Lough Derg Spirit as a winner as bookies were offering 6 places although I only got 25/1 - 1/5odds
I'm counting Lough Derg Spirit as a winner as bookies were offering 6 places although I only got 25/1 - 1/5odds
Cassivellaunus went from 50/1 to 16/1 in the space of a few minutes in the last at Plumpton. I caught it as it had gone into what I thought was 40's but it had gone in again to 33 by the time my bet went through. Somebodies made a bob or two on that one! Couldn't believe it when I saw it's price ended up at 16's.
That was one someone put up last time wasn't it?
I was following that yard trying to catch Pulsating right for what felt like forever. Can't stop winning now for Archie Watson.
Someone associated definitely likes a wager or two.
swedish chef
At the Start
Oh No moehat!! I put this up l/t/o and didn't see it today even though it was in my e-mail tracker, I never checked as always busy at work Mondays Absolutely gutted and definitely time for me to take a break. Until Cheltenham.
Unlucky Chef, knew I'd seen mention.Oh No moehat!! I put this up l/t/o and didn't see it today even though it was in my e-mail tracker, I never checked as always busy at work Mondays Absolutely gutted and definitely time for me to take a break. Until Cheltenham.
Forget about it. Can't be on them all, as much as we'd like to be.
I knew there was a reason why I kept going back to it and it was niggling at me; then, when I read the write up about it I couldn't convince myself to back it, until the price started to come in. I was, of course, obsessed with listening to Plumpton today cause Ding Ding was running again. I backed Harmonize for the Triumph at 100/1 yesterday in case she won today; connections really want a Cheltenham runner but don't know if she'll get in?
I can't provide any bombproof rationale, but The Compeller (Musselburgh 3:30) is the best long shot tomorrow. Rated 65 in Ireland on the flat, he ran two decent races in juvenile hurdles at the end of 2015. He lost his form after that, was pulled up on his reappearance, but maybe that was a fitness sharpener. This weak race looks tailor made for him to come back-to-form for the Grand National winning trainer. 20/1 each way. The proof will be in the pudding.
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Good luck Marb.
I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.
Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
I'm at work on my break so can't post reasoning atm but will try to at some point although it's not that hard to figure out. In what could turn out to be the real national trial at the weekend over at Ascot I can't help but feel Carole's Destrier has and outstanding chance. 33/1 with a few firms and ive split a rather tusky bet across a couple of those.
Have a look see what you think fellas and I'll post my reasoning when I get chance.
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swedish chef
At the Start
Makes a lot of sense Danny. 2lb lower than when finishing 2nd in the Hennessy 2016 and only 3 runs since. Trainers stable tour suggest The National is the seasons target for this horse, so below par performances are unsurprising. Now the weights are out trainer can let him loose.
Trainer "He will go straight for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury and he had a racecourse gallop last week in preparation for that race. He is very good and finished second in the Hennessy last season when having his first run of the season. We are going to do the same again this year and long term we are looking at the Grand National for him."
Desert Orchid
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Obviously a well-handicapped horse who shouldn't be 33/1 for any handicap chase if he's fit, well and trying.
I would worry about a slog in a bog for a prep though. Will probably end up with some sickness insurance as he's been on my radar for a long time.
I would worry about a slog in a bog for a prep though. Will probably end up with some sickness insurance as he's been on my radar for a long time.
Cheers Danny yep will have a look a bit later.
swedish chef
At the Start
Fontwell 3.45 Goldslinger 28/1 – His penultimate hurdle race last February when finishing fifth in a class 3 Novice hurdle at Newbury, I think is the best piece of form in the race. 10 runner race, the horse that finished,
10th came out and won 2 and finished 2nd in his next 4 races.
9th won next time out
8th won next time out beating none other than Next Destination in a bumper at Punchestown.
7th finished 2nd three times in his next 6 races.
6th let the form down
5th the selection was well btn next time out on heavy ground but that race came only two weeks after his respectable effort in this race and he had been on the go all season on the flat.
2nd, 3rd & 4th won next time out and the winner was High Bridge who finished 9th in the Supreme and now rated 147.
The select has since gone on to run on the flat and all weather but changed trainer from Dean Ivory to Gary Moore at the beginning of November. Gary Moore has two in the race and on jockey bookings my selection is the second string. I will have a minimum e/way unless a gamble develops as new trainer may have a nicely handicapped one?
10th came out and won 2 and finished 2nd in his next 4 races.
9th won next time out
8th won next time out beating none other than Next Destination in a bumper at Punchestown.
7th finished 2nd three times in his next 6 races.
6th let the form down
5th the selection was well btn next time out on heavy ground but that race came only two weeks after his respectable effort in this race and he had been on the go all season on the flat.
2nd, 3rd & 4th won next time out and the winner was High Bridge who finished 9th in the Supreme and now rated 147.
The select has since gone on to run on the flat and all weather but changed trainer from Dean Ivory to Gary Moore at the beginning of November. Gary Moore has two in the race and on jockey bookings my selection is the second string. I will have a minimum e/way unless a gamble develops as new trainer may have a nicely handicapped one?
I've written a bit for my place so some parts again won't apply but it covers my thoughts on CD's chances.
Yeah think I might have dropped a bollock with this race. But we shall see.
The basic premise of the Carols Destrier bet is based around whether you believe this seasons form is genuine efforts or whether its a ploy to get weighted for the National. If you looked back to the Peter Marsh thread when originally Carol's and VLR were entered for it I actually said I look forward to seeing them both run down the track somewhere.
The thing that originally set alarm bells ringing with CD was the weakness in the betting in the Hennessy. He shouldn't have been going off at an Sp of 33/1. If you take into consideration that literally the whole market shrinks close to the off in these big Saturday Handicaps especially where you have 5 or 6 places then normally a 50/1 shot early morning would be trimmed to and SP of 33/1 regardless of anything else. Carol who'd finished second in the race the year before from a 7lb higher mark to a horse Native River who went on to do wonders, even though higher in the handicap was still weighted to hold up form with a lot of those who were much shorter in the betting. Common sense would have told you no bookie would really want to be laying 6 places at 33/1. Carols was in close attendance turning for home and having stayed on strongly the previous year and having won over trips in excess of 3m2F one would of expected at least that he'd stay on for a place from that position. However he'd gradually weakened to a well beaten 8th. Given the drift and the way he ran although having won fresh in the past it seemed to me that they must of left plenty to work on this time around and he had another target in mind I.e the Grand National.
I fully expected Carols to get beat on that basis when turning up in the Peter Marsh and he duly obliged being pulled up half way around. The Handicapper has in my view been a bit to quick in his response to lower Carols being lowered 8lb for two efforts one which I believe you can put a line through Heavy ground at Haydock and the other where the betting and the run itself just smacked of lacking match fitness. Carole now finds himself 2lb lower than a mark of which he was 2nd to Native river in the Hennessy and although that is quite a while ago in terms of time its only actually 4 runs ago. If you can take that drop in context of the drop VLR has received he's been dropped 4lb for two efforts which showed even less promise and have been truly awful. I'm fairly sure Phil Smith has took one look at him and thought I'll give you a bit but I'm not falling for that game Mr Pipe.
VDR's run in the Grand National trial last term was epic not just in terms of collateral form lines but in terms of figures as well. It might be viewed that he didn't stay in the big one itself and that could be true although I'd suggest he may have left his race behind in the trial given how hard a race it was. I would expect a lot better showing from him some time soon and if you can get on with Skybet I believe the 20/1 for this is good value although going stick readings of 5.0 would worry me as I firmly believe he's a better horse on better ground but the same would be said for Carol who want anymore rain. That said though its hard sometimes to realise whether its the ground that is effecting these types or the possible fact that they have been running with the handbrake applied on these occasions. Its also difficult to tell the difference between Heavy at Haydock and Heavy at Ascot.
So with Carols I'm thinking I shouldn't have bothered taking the risk ante-post as the theory is that under the radar I doubt there will be much of a queue to get involved so I should have probably waited until the day. I expected the field to cut up quite badly which also offered up some value. I thought a couple including VLR would head to the GN trial at Haydock and there is the old racing post chase at Kempton next week which will offer a similar race on better ground for more money so I thought a fair few might head off there. Carol won what will probably be a lot weaker version of this race 3 years ago which again is a rather historical piece of form to be using he won by 8L off a mark 4lb lower than what he will race off on Saturday. I wouldn't take anything from that really other than if your looking for a horse to revitalise its form then its good to see it going back to a course its run well at previously. Saturday could end up being quite a slog and with winning form over 3m5F off the same mark of 146 you'd think he won't be lacking in the stamina department at least. There are quite a few I feel amongst the line up who the handicapper probably has in his grip and CD could have been amongst those but may he's just let this one slip a bit. There are plenty of dangers I really like Gold present but not at the prices and Minella Daddy is one of interest also. Venetias, Tenor Nivernais is a another having won this freakishly by 30 lengths last year and somehow ends up here from the same mark hence I've had a saver on this one at 14's or 16's ? can't remember.
Overall opinion though Carole's Destrier is probably an all or nothing shot really if the theory is correct then he will go close if its not and its a horse who has been trying but is just rapidly on the downgrade then he'll probably pull up.
At 33/1 though I don't mind these sort of bets although admittedly I've probably got a bit over excited initially and over bet its chances and I probably didn't need to take the Ante-post risk element of the bet as the price or bigger may well be available on the day.
I'd say I'd learn from the mistake but evidence points towards the fact I don't. Curse my itchy trigger finger !
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