The Long Shot Thread

I know it's got no chance but Princess Asta 2.00 is the sort of unknown quantity that I have to have a small bet on at 66/1.
 
swedish chef said:
This one was a non-runner in above race as he didn't eat up, but has managed to get a run tomorrow in The Coral Hurdle 4.05 Leopardstown 33/1 - Won off 99 on his penultimate start on the flat and btn 8L by Riven Light on his last start giving that horse 12lb. Riven Light was only btn 5L in a group 1 in Australia on his last start. I'm hoping this horse is a stable Cheltenham prospect. Watching his races you be hopeful he will be travelling well at 2 out and I will put in a LAY to cover stake but hopefully he has matured now and will properly see out the 2 miles
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Back this at 120.0 and put in a LAY at 8.0 to cover all bets on it - typically it got matched at 8.8 :mad:
 
Nae luck there, Chef...

Just one for today for me.

Leop 2.25 Phil's Magic 33/1 - I have to say I think if Total Recall is at his best and trying he wins. I reckon if he were to run in a UK hurdle his handicap mark would be about 140. However, Whisper and several other Hennessy runners have failed to frank the form. I reckon it’s because it was such a savage race most of them will take a long time to recover, if at all. It was reminiscent of Grundy and Bustino, neither of which were anywhere near their best again. Rather than take a short price about Total Recall, I’m going to take a punt on Phil’s Magic. I’m loath to back anything trained by Tony Martin but I can’t come up with a good reason to back anything else and he's top rated on my figures for the hurdles form.

Edit - I'd also like to see a nice run from Edwulf as I am on ante-post (nrnb/bog) for the Gold Cup. I think he'd have won the 4-miler last season if he hadn't gone wrong and that race is becoming a better Gold Cup trial than the RSA. But I would not recommend Edwulf here.
 
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I was gonna put up Enlighten 4.20 Musselburgh 20/1 but missed the gamble studying other outsiders - still available with BETSTARS bt I don't have an account with them and not opening one - Trainer 9 wins from 18 runs this season and use to do well in bumpers years ago - I havent had a bet but will be interesting to see how he goes.
 
I think I've just backed that one as I've been backing the steamers on oddschecker; didn't get 20/1 though.
 
swedish chef said:
Fairyhouse 2.45 Alletrix 40/1 - probably wants further but is joint third top rated on RPR's - On her last start she was coming to challenge when fell two out over course in a race won by a horse she beat a distance 3 races ago. She looks to be improving and looks over priced so worth a speculative small e/way.
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Have to wonder how this horse opened at 40/1 and sp 25/1 l/t/o hacked up today and paid a lovely compliment Laurina
 
Desert Orchid said:
I have to say I think if Total Recall is at his best and trying he wins.
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One of the few things I've got right this weekend :(

I was disappointed to see PM's rider allow the leaders to get away from him starting the turn for home without him making any effort to keep him going, only asking him again once the leaders had flown. Still, he was beaten so far it probably didn't make any difference at all.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nae luck there, Chef...

Just one for today for me.

Leop 2.25 Phil's Magic 33/1 - I have to say I think if Total Recall is at his best and trying he wins. I reckon if he were to run in a UK hurdle his handicap mark would be about 140. However, Whisper and several other Hennessy runners have failed to frank the form. I reckon it’s because it was such a savage race most of them will take a long time to recover, if at all. It was reminiscent of Grundy and Bustino, neither of which were anywhere near their best again. Rather than take a short price about Total Recall, I’m going to take a punt on Phil’s Magic. I’m loath to back anything trained by Tony Martin but I can’t come up with a good reason to back anything else and he's top rated on my figures for the hurdles form.

Edit - I'd also like to see a nice run from Edwulf as I am on ante-post (nrnb/bog) for the Gold Cup. I think he'd have won the 4-miler last season if he hadn't gone wrong and that race is becoming a better Gold Cup trial than the RSA. But I would not recommend Edwulf here.
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Hope you got a wager on it.
 
omigod; I backed Edwulf at 100/1 because I was so brassed off with not backing Josephs horse in the Melbourne Cup. Sorry to aftertime but it's been my lifetime ambition to back a 100/1 winner [after backing Mon Mome at 33/1 for the National and not topping up my bet]. Although I've topped up my W Hill account by £10 yesterday, I was down to @£1.50 before that. I've had several 80/1 winners, but the 100/1 was the one I wanted. Alas, I only put 3 pence ew on but, when you have the number of bets I do it's best to stick to small odds....[think I need to lie down now; also hope the horse is ok after his previous problems....]..oh, and hope the fallers are ok, too....
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Edit - I'd also like to see a nice run from Edwulf as I am on ante-post (nrnb/bog) for the Gold Cup. I think he'd have won the 4-miler last season if he hadn't gone wrong and that race is becoming a better Gold Cup trial than the RSA. But I would not recommend Edwulf here.
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Fvck.

Thought it was just on another step forward here and backed Outlander today.

Fvck.
 
Wow; wish I'd followed you with that one! So relieved to hear fallen horses are ok; I can only listen on the radio so I didn't realise that Killultagh Vic was down for quite a while.
 
Newcastle 2:45 Gold Opera 20/1 each way

The Young Master is out at Newcastle tomorrow. The fact they turned down the option of running him in the big Chase at Doncaster last week and run him here instead tells me that he's probably losing his form quite badly. Hence I don't see the drop down in class necessarily as a good thing, It may just tell us he's not at his best. The one who I can't believe the price of is Gold Opera who is rank outsider at 20/1 on the early betting. This is a two-time course winner, that's won in February in 2016 and 2017, so he does well this time of year. He also runs the odd stinker, but a mark of 123 is really quite fair in my opinion. I need him in the first two.
 
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7.45 Wolves - Elegant Joan - 25/1 general

Looks a weak race with no value to those prominent in the betting. Elegant Joan has proved she's only moderate but she's with a fair trainer of sprinters who should be up to winning a little race with her.

Draw is fine, bottom of the weights. I'm sure the plan will be to try and make all and not see another rival.
 
Southwell 3.00 Hurricane Dylan 25/1 - his form ties in with Pri Massini who won at 28/1 for thread. They were closely matched in a PTP with o/r 134 Woods Well. He then went on to finish second to o/r 130 Noble Robin in his next PTP, and after that was 3rd btn 6L to the o/r 135 Geordie Des Champs in a NHF race. The ability is there to run well and above his odds in this race but has been off the track for just under 2 years. Booking of Nico de Boinville a positive and trainer knows the time of day, but if he has a chance he will probably be gambled. However price too big for a horse who has shown good ability and could be anything if over problems.
 
swedish chef said:
Southwell 3.00 Hurricane Dylan 25/1 - his form ties in with Pri Massini who won at 28/1 for thread. They were closely matched in a PTP with o/r 134 Woods Well. He then went on to finish second to o/r 130 Noble Robin in his next PTP, and after that was 3rd btn 6L to the o/r 135 Geordie Des Champs in a NHF race. The ability is there to run well and above his odds in this race but has been off the track for just under 2 years. Booking of Nico de Boinville a positive and trainer knows the time of day, but if he has a chance he will probably be gambled. However price too big for a horse who has shown good ability and could be anything if over problems.
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This one goes in the tracker - lets just say he was looked after by the jockey and not asked a question. I do like the way he hurdled and predicting a handicap win at Aintree :ninja:
 
So relieved that the 100/1 2nd in the 4.20 wasn't Adams ride; I always back his horses but couldn't make any sort of a case for it today. Think it only just missed out on 2nd, though. That would have been a sickener.
 
Sedgefield 3.50 Fare Thee Well 20/1 Ladbrokes - I took 25/1 last night for a small e/way so it is good to see it has moved with most of the books. Hasn't raced since two PTP's in 2014 when 4th & 2nd but many good horses have come from those races, so the selection wouldn't have to be that good in a race of this nature today.
In his first PTP he was behind Stone Hard o/r 130Ch, Ballykan o/r 133Ch & in front of Lovely Job o/r 138Ch.
On his next & last start he was 7L 2nd to Alisier D'Irlande o/r 138Ch and dht with Ewings o/r 108H.
There may be ability there to outrun his odds but has been off track for nearly 4 years and only 7 runners so a small speculative e/way.
 
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swedish chef said:
Fairyhouse 1.45 Design Matters 33/1 - This came to my attention as he is the most expensive purchase in the field at 45,000 euros and I would of had a minimum e/way just for that reason. I did some research and came across this article http://www.itm.ie/en/Media_Centre/News/INTERVIEW__MARTIN_CULLINANE_OF_MOUNT_BROWN_FARM/
Pay particular attention on what he has to say about Lot 76 as that is the selection.
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I tested link and it didn't work here is the article.

The Irish Store Sales are upon us and Martin Cullinane is brimming with anticipation, hopeful that his latest crop of National Hunt youngsters will do themselves justice under the spotlight over the next few days and weeks. The County Galway consignor is vastly experienced and has seen some good ones pass through his hands. He describes this year’s offerings at Goffs and Tattersalls Ireland as “maybe more select as a bunch” against those from previous years, which must bode well.

Kingscliff (IRE) went through the academy at Mount Brown Farm near Athenry. So did Road To Riches (IRE) and Go Native (IRE), among many more topliners. At the Goffs Land Rover Sale in 2011 he sold his homebred Martello Tower (IRE) for €12,000 to Mags Mullins. That horse went on to win the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle at Cheltenham and has €175,000 in the bank. It’s fair to say Cullinane can unearth the odd gem.

Already there is a buzz about Lot 321 at next week’s Goffs Land Rover Sale, a three-year-old gelding sired by Frozen Fire out of a half-sister to Brametot (IRE), who recently completed the French 2,000 Guineas and Derby double.

“He is very correct to look at; he is a very good-moving horse. I was drawn to him both on type and on pedigree as he has Monsun down the page and he has been a superb sire of so many top class horses. The other closer relation [Brametot (IRE)] doing so well winning the Classic races in France has been a nice boost and good timing, I suppose. This horse is very sound and clear-winded. I’d say he’s fairly interesting,” says Cullinane.

Asked to nominate another from his draft at Goffs, he doesn’t have to deliberate too long before mentioning Lot 76, a son of Mastercraftsman (IRE) for whom he makes a big call. “Smashing big horse, that fella is. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up running well in a race like the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at Punchestown. The damsire is Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) and he seems to be turning into a good sire of sires, too. I’m very happy with that lad overall.”
 
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Doncaster 3:30 Nautical Nitwit 20/1 each way.

This one had been campained during the summer and consequently probably lost his form towards end of 2017. Therefore the two month break is a positive and should help the cause. His winning form is on decent ground, so the ground should suit. His previous winning marks, (off the top of my head) were 120, 125 and 129, so 130 is a fair-enough mark. He might be the each way horse in the race at 20's. A lot could depend on how well the progressive types do, especially the Emma Lavelle trained favourite.
 
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