The Oaks & Irish Oaks
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davidjohnson
At the Start
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Anna Pavlova stayed a mile and a half pretty well (and beyond).
It's difficult to come to any other conclusion... fill yer boots. Win or lose, if you don't make the most of opportunities like this one you might as well not have a bet.
I am getting quite sweet on Beauty O'Gwaun. Certain to stay and open to loads of improvement. Always a massive plus for me when a three year old can beat older horses early in the season - a real positive indicator. But of course the most positive indicator of all is that Oxx is going to bring her over in the first placed granted any bit of ease in the going.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I remember lumping on Galatee in 06 because she had beaten older fillies. She wouldn't have beaten Alexandrova even if she'd run and ended up being pretty average. Beauty O'Gwaun is a solid ew bet because RV's main rivals in the market are atrocious value.
Gamla Stan
At the Start
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Agree completely, BOG and Perfect Truth are outstanding value at present. Tempted to take a stance today on the market as I fear it could get shaken up come Monday.
I think BOG is ground dependent more than Perfect Truth though.
I think BOG is ground dependent more than Perfect Truth though.
Wouldn't disagree with that assessment. Her and Rainbow View stand out for me, and fround should suit both.
Rainbow view has the extra class, though in the event her stamina didn't last home, you'd imagine it would be a filly like Beauty O'Gwaun who outstays here.
Can't recall exactly what it said in yesterday's paper (read in haste). Didn't it say she's unlikely to run? Was it was related to the going in which case she should be okay.
All things being equal I like her chances of running a big race too, albeit in a supporting role to RV.
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Weather forecast for Southern England looks to be against any soft ground runners looking for their ground come Derby weekend - after today's rain, they are talking about a high moving in and staying put and some pretty settled decent weather.
Probably not to be relied on, of course but does look unlikely to be anything softer than good.
Probably not to be relied on, of course but does look unlikely to be anything softer than good.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Bet365 are going 9/2 Rainbow View NRNB. Well worth taking a slice of.
I think that sounds about right. I think the course have be reckoning on just the soft side of good without watering. As you say it's a bit of an inexact science though.
Sea The Stars won't be running if it's too soft and a whole raft of fillies seemingly won't be running if it's too fast. It will probably be the sort of ground that won't stop too many (if any) from taking part.
Seems like the bet... I took some more of the 9/2 all-in earlier.
Was that this morning or tomorrow morning?
...didn't get much sleep at the weekend... lost track of what day it is!
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Yes you're right. Debussy is set to join her.
"Stanjames.com 1,000 Guineas, has continued her preparation away from the main string at Clarehaven. Gosden said: "She did a piece of work on the Al Bahathri polytrack at the beginning of the week and we are going to Epsom [on Thursday] for a nice half speed and just get her used to coming down the hill."
"Stanjames.com 1,000 Guineas, has continued her preparation away from the main string at Clarehaven. Gosden said: "She did a piece of work on the Al Bahathri polytrack at the beginning of the week and we are going to Epsom [on Thursday] for a nice half speed and just get her used to coming down the hill."
David Johnson first suggested it, and having started cobbling together my final lists/ ratings (I'll pop them up later) I've got a problem with both Lingfield trials, and am growing deeply suspicious that neither was run at the advertised distance. Shame on Lingfield, the fibbers (or alternatively neither Age of Aquarius or Midday are any good). To bring both horses out on the 100 mark that a respective Derby or Oaks winner needs to run, then i estimate that Age of Aquarius would need to have run 3.26 secs faster than he did, and Midday 3.82 secs at race distance. It's hit and miss a bit (too much so for my liking) but if both horses were capable of this, then Lingfield's probably lobbed somewhere between an extra 51 - 58 yds on their 11.5F course. Such an anlaysis is flawed in that it presumes the horses are capable of reaching this level, I doubt that A of A is, so the extra yardage is likely to be less in truth, but I'm still left guessing. Either way, I'm left leaning towards a suspicion that Lingfield Park have probably tucked us away a bit, and have been dolling out.
My apologies if anyone else has pointed it out but I couldn't help noticing that Oxx in today's Weekender states in relation to Beauty O'Gwaun that "we...hope for a little ease in the ground" and in relation to Sea The Stars that "we want the ground riding fast".
Epsom dries out pretty quickly but I think he's going to be disappointed one way or the other.
Epsom dries out pretty quickly but I think he's going to be disappointed one way or the other.
It's normally the case (experience is teaching me) that horses improve about 2-4 points from their trials and I'm therefore building 3 pts onto a figure by way of a projection in cases like this. What has happened in the past is that the fastest times I clock going into the Derby/ Oaks are invariably recorded in a Guineas. This shouldn't be surprising really. A Guineas is afterall a legitimate target when a horse with serious aspirations of winning it, will be at its peak. The trial races by contrast are designed to put a horse 'on course' for Epsom, and there's less of an incentive to 'fire it home' at all costs, so it's hardly a surprise to see Guineas horses (especially as the races normally run at a good clip too, which isn't always the case for a trial), dominating a prima facie listing. So I've taken the respective English, French and Irish races at face value, and built in a slight performance boost for the trials. As mentioned earlier, I've also got a problem with the Lingfield trials in particular, which I'm increasingly thinking weren't run at the advertised distance.
Rainbow View = 100.00 on +3.27 (1000 Gns)
Perfect Truth = 99.82 on +3.95 (Cheshire O's)
Phillipina = 99.79 on +3.95 (Cheshire O's)
Again = 99.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000 Gns)
Beauty O'Gwaun = 98.64~ on 3.55 (Naas) very difficult, almost impossible to assess
Gus Chaire = 98.50 on +3.27 (1000 Gns)
Oh Goodness Me = 96.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000 Gns)
Sariska = 91.52 on +2.19 (Mussidora)
Three Moons = 91.33 on +3.27 (Pretty Polly)
The Miniver Rose = 89.92 on -0.56? (estimated to be about +2.90 due to headwind at Newmarket)
The Miniver Rose = 86.33 on +3.27 (Pretty Polly)
Oh Goodness Me = 85.85 on +3.71 (Poulliches)
High Heeled = 85.47 on -3.53 (Dubai Duty Free Newbury)
The Miniver Rose = 85.27 on -0.90 (The Sweetenam)
Midday = 83.82~ on +3.53 (Lingield)
Dance Pass = 83.75 on +1.98 (Leopardstown)
High Heeled = 81.02 on +2.19 (Mussidora)
Three Moons = 80.29 on +0.59 (Folkestone)
Just Jasmine = 77.82~ on +3.53 (Lingfield)
Aaroness = 73.82 on -7.24 (Gallinule Stks)
Dance Pass = 72.35 on +3.61 (Naas)
Dance Pass = 70.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000Gns)
Rainbow View = 100.00 on +3.27 (1000 Gns)
Perfect Truth = 99.82 on +3.95 (Cheshire O's)
Phillipina = 99.79 on +3.95 (Cheshire O's)
Again = 99.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000 Gns)
Beauty O'Gwaun = 98.64~ on 3.55 (Naas) very difficult, almost impossible to assess
Gus Chaire = 98.50 on +3.27 (1000 Gns)
Oh Goodness Me = 96.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000 Gns)
Sariska = 91.52 on +2.19 (Mussidora)
Three Moons = 91.33 on +3.27 (Pretty Polly)
The Miniver Rose = 89.92 on -0.56? (estimated to be about +2.90 due to headwind at Newmarket)
The Miniver Rose = 86.33 on +3.27 (Pretty Polly)
Oh Goodness Me = 85.85 on +3.71 (Poulliches)
High Heeled = 85.47 on -3.53 (Dubai Duty Free Newbury)
The Miniver Rose = 85.27 on -0.90 (The Sweetenam)
Midday = 83.82~ on +3.53 (Lingield)
Dance Pass = 83.75 on +1.98 (Leopardstown)
High Heeled = 81.02 on +2.19 (Mussidora)
Three Moons = 80.29 on +0.59 (Folkestone)
Just Jasmine = 77.82~ on +3.53 (Lingfield)
Aaroness = 73.82 on -7.24 (Gallinule Stks)
Dance Pass = 72.35 on +3.61 (Naas)
Dance Pass = 70.64 on -7.24 (Irish 1000Gns)
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* Oaks hope Rainbow View worked over 8.5 furlongs with four-year-old colt Expresso Star - she finished second in a very gentle piece of work without ever being asked a question by Jimmy Fortune.
Trainer John Gosden said: "She's done two pieces of work recently when she's gone six lengths clear of her galloping companion. She's the sort of horse that when you let her go, she just lets rip. But that was never the plan today.
"I'm certain she'll stay 10 furlongs but we can't be certain about a mile and a half until Oaks day."
* Jim Bolger confirmed that Cuis Ghaire will not run in the Oaks and he'll be represented by the 1000 Guineas third Oh Goodness Me.
* July Jasmine, one of two Oaks possibles for Sir Michael Stoute, works on Saturday and Prince Khalid Abdullah will decide after that whether she runs at Epsom. The Prince's racing manager Lord Grimthorpe says at this stage they're probably leaning towards the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.
Trainer John Gosden said: "She's done two pieces of work recently when she's gone six lengths clear of her galloping companion. She's the sort of horse that when you let her go, she just lets rip. But that was never the plan today.
"I'm certain she'll stay 10 furlongs but we can't be certain about a mile and a half until Oaks day."
* Jim Bolger confirmed that Cuis Ghaire will not run in the Oaks and he'll be represented by the 1000 Guineas third Oh Goodness Me.
* July Jasmine, one of two Oaks possibles for Sir Michael Stoute, works on Saturday and Prince Khalid Abdullah will decide after that whether she runs at Epsom. The Prince's racing manager Lord Grimthorpe says at this stage they're probably leaning towards the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.
Thanks Gal. I would be more interested about comments on her action on this better ground.
Any mention of Dubussy?
I found that reference that was at the back of my mind the other day:
"Beauty O'Gwaun...
However, the Currabeg trainer is not sure whether the Rainbow Quest filly will make the trip over to Epsom yet.
He explained: "We have not decided if she will run yet - we will probably have a piece of work at the weekend and then we will make a decision.
"We're not quite sure if she is good enough. She's a bit inexperienced and has a bit to do at that kind of level."
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Irish Stamp
Forum Moderator
Indeed Gal (re: 3yos beating older horses) - I remember seeing what Kitty O'Shea did on the first day of the flat season a few years ago, she obliterated a decent enough field and was 5/1 favourite for the race when she fractured her pelvis.
IMO it's generally harder to beat older horses in a group race than win a fillies Classic trial
Good to see her first foal win the other night
IMO it's generally harder to beat older horses in a group race than win a fillies Classic trial
Good to see her first foal win the other night
