The Oaks & Irish Oaks

As I just said on another thread, the track still has some juice in it, or did yesterday afternoon. It may well be a lot better ground than many think it will be.
 
High Heeled
Midday
Nashmiah
Oh Goodness Me
Perfect Truth
Phillipina
Rainbow View
Sariska
The Miniver Rose
Three Moons
Tottie
Wadaat
 
Was talking to Harry Dunlop's representative at Chepstow on Tuesday and the yard quietly fancy their Three Moons, very consistent and only beaten a short-head by Midday in a race last year.
 
No chance of it being good to firm or quicker, epsom will ensure the ground is no quicker than good on Oaks day
 
Slight worry over the ground now for Rainbow View. Can anyone tell me how far Epsom will go to ensure the ground doesn't have the word 'firm' in it come Friday?

I have also had a small bet on Oh Goodness me, who i think is overpriced at 23/1. I think there's a good chance she'll stay, despite being out of an Indian Ridge mare, as she's a half sister to the useful Eradicate.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Was talking to Harry Dunlop's representative at Chepstow on Tuesday and the yard quietly fancy their Three Moons, very consistent and only beaten a short-head by Midday in a race last year.
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Three Moons won't run... minor injury.
 
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Hamm said:
Slight worry over the ground now for Rainbow View. Can anyone tell me how far Epsom will go to ensure the ground doesn't have the word 'firm' in it come Friday?

I have also had a small bet on Oh Goodness me, who i think is overpriced at 23/1. I think there's a good chance she'll stay, despite being out of an Indian Ridge mare, as she's a half sister to the useful Eradicate.
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The course is still expecting good ground on Friday, but would be prepared to run on good to firm.
 
Unless the rains arrive the ground looks almost certain to have the word firm in it by Friday...

Epsom end watering prior to forecast rain


By Jon Lees4.12PM 2 JUN 2009
EPSOM groundstaff completed what was likely to be the last significant course of watering on Tuesday with any further similar action likely to be "very limited" because of a forecast change in the weather.


Clerk of the course Andrew Cooper described the going as good, good to firm in places, on the Derby course after 6mm of water had been applied to the track but quicker on thestands-side sprint track, which is good to firm.

"We have put 6mm on the course and we will have another look in the morning," he said. "We have beautiful ground and we would love to be racing right now.

"The outlook for the weekend has changed and there is the possibility of light rain on Friday afternoon and the potential for rain to be around on Saturday as a system comes in from the Bay of Biscay.

"With cooler temperatures the track isn't going to dry out so quickly and with the potential for rain any further watering is likely to be very limited."

The Met Office is predicting a 10C drop in temperatures over the next few days from a high of 26C today with more showery conditions forecast for Epsom on Friday and Saturday.

A spokeswoman said: "By Friday it will be cloudy with showery bursts of rain and temperatures of 14C, a considerable difference. Saturday will be cloudy with not quite as many showers."
 
High Heeled
Midday
Oh Goodness Me
Perfect Truth
Phillipina
Rainbow View
Sariska
The Miniver Rose
Tottie
Wadaat
 
Gamla Stan said:
Oaks looks wide open this year and given Oh Goodness Me's breeding and how well she just ran in the Irish Guineas, 33s looks a bit big.
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Been well supported over the last 24 hours and now into 14s with everyone but VC. I never actually backed her at 33s but I've covered my stake on Perfect Truth on her this morning at 16s like a mug. The front 3 in the market are begging to be taken on, it's a lot more open than the market suggests imo.
 
Agreed, Tom Segal seemed to think she'd go better on quick ground, not too sure where he gets that from though. Suppose she won her maiden on decent ground. She was too big in the betting that's for sure.
 
Right, by far and a way my worst classic, even though the market suggests it should be one of the easier. Levelled off at racing weights etc the result is;

1st...Rainbow View
1.5...Perfect Truth
nse...Phillipina
2.5...Oh Goodness Me
4......The Miniver Rose
1.5...Sariska
3......Midday
7......High Heeled
3.75..Tottie
PU....Wadaat

urm..... this doesn't look very clever (or indeed remotely likely).:lol:

I do hold an alternative figure for Sariska which puts her a neck behind Rainbow View but this was gained over 7F's on ground riding -2.88. It might be fairer to combine both the Fred Darling and Mussiadora into some kind of composite rating, which would put her 0.75L's behind Oh Goodness Me in 5th. Midday carries the same concerns as Age of Aquarius regarding the Lingfield trials and the real distance they were run at, and I'll revisit her.

I've tentatively worked some times out which I think would be indicative of good ground and will probably back one of Rainbow View or Perfect Truth/ Phillipina accordingly.

1st race = 1.45.10
2nd race = 1.45.90
3rd race = 2.38.60
4th race = 2.10.60 (bit more twtichy about this one, but I've used the top rated horse on 96 to set it)
 
I think those times are a bit generous. Only one of thirteen Coronation Cups and one of sixteen Diomeds run on officially Good ground since 1988 have produced times slower than those. I'll throw my ideas up later!
 
I haven't completely lost faith with The Miniver Rose, which I have at 25/1 ante-post so felt obliged to top up at 40s this evening. I still think the race won by Nehaam is hot and Monitor Closely has upheld it a couple of times now although others have let it down, including TMR herself.
 
14's in stand out for Oh Goodness Me now, Pricewise perhaps? The 7/2 for Rainbow View is being taken on Betfair.
 
Steve T said:
14's in stand out for Oh Goodness Me now, Pricewise perhaps? The 7/2 for Rainbow View is being taken on Betfair.
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Now 12s. Judging by his comments on RPTV, almost certainly Pricewise. I'm not sure she's upto winning but she was no 16/1 shot, let alone 33/1.
 
Any word on the likely ground?

What does Gosden think of the prospect of good/good to firm in places for Rainbow View?
 
845.jpg


This is from this morning.

Green = Good
Blue = Good To Firm
 
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