The Road to the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup

Desert Orchid said:
SDR is a value bet, imo. As I say, I'm more than confident he is a far, far better horse than his current rating.

I'll be finalising his Kelso mark tomorrow but it's shaping up around the 171 mark despite winning in a canter. Not many of the field can boast marks in the 170s let alone doing so head-in-chest.
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4 runners in that Kelso race. History suggests he is incapable of looking as good in a big field
 
With respect, DO, if you are awarding a 170+ for that 4-runner affair at Kelso, I'd have to think there is an error in there somewhere.

SDR has beaten two 12yos, and a horse who has never won off a mark higher than 133, and he was perfectly entitled to win the race on the bridle, without putting-up anything remotely-close to a top-class effort.

No slight is intended or inferred - but I do think you are putting more gloss on that Kelso performance than is merited. :cool:
 
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Euronymous said:
4 runners in that Kelso race. History suggests he is incapable of looking as good in a big field
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He had no trouble beating handicap fields of 16 and 13 (the Lanzarote) on his way through the hurdling ranks.

He's just been out of form for a season and a half and is on the way back now. It happens. Sometimes deliberately.
 
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Grasshopper said:
With respect, DO, if you are awarding a 170+ for that 4-runner affair at Kelso, I'd have to think there is an error in there somewhere.

SDR has beaten two 12yos, and a horse who has never won off a mark higher than 133, and he was perfectly entitled to win the race on the bridle, without putting-up anything remotely-close to a top-class effort.

No slight is intended or inferred - but I do think you are putting more gloss on that Kelso performance than is merited. :cool:
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No problem, GH. I'll get back to you tomorrow on that one.
 
Just got home, day off work and had a few shandys. For the Don Poli at 40s 25s and 20s. Me and my mate just chucked a wedge on and half 16s. I'll regret this in the morning, but I'm living like a king till then.

Plus it'll repay the ton I've lost on him AP for the national.
 
I've had a closer look at the Kelso race.

It's pretty impossible to rate, actually. It looks like it's been one of those Irish-type races where a hot-pot is allowed to do its own thing and the rest are just out for a hunt round, not giving it a race. The time was slow, the runner-up was on its seasonal debut (which I hadn't realised) and the well-beaten third made a lot of mistakes.

All it did was prove Saphir Du Rheu is still alive.

Sam T-D said the horse jumped well and he seems to think it's getting its act together again but that's all. The rest is a matter of faith. I still find him 'interesting', though.
 
Re Blaklion v Saphir Du Rheu...

As I suggested before, the handicapper has raised Blaklion for Saturday, up to 156, the same as SDR.

I reckon that's about Blaklion's mark, hence my conviction that he won't be anywhere near winning a Gold Cup. I can't accept that the Saphir Du Rheu who won the Mildmay (and who was touted as the new Big Buck's for long enough) is as bad as that. He was backed as though defeat were out of the question off 163 in the Hennessy and again first time up this season off 152.

Before that race I wrote:

Paul Kealy is all over Saphir Du Rheu like a rash in the Weekender and makes the case for him quite clearly. Then again, it is a ridiculously easy case to make! The question is whether he can still produce the goods given how disappointing he became. He will no doubt hack up one day. I just wonder if the Hennessy is the target since it is worth twice as much as this hundred-grander. The weights aren’t out until 9 November and he might end up blowing a winning opporchancity with a victory here.
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And after it:

Antony was a decent winner clearly on a curve but an 8lbs rise might make life tough in the near future. There’s always the chance, though, that this was actually a much better race than that since Saphir Du Rheu – which Tarnya has taken to re-naming Saffer De Ray – might be the very decent horse his best form makes him out to be and it’s hard to imagine that most of this field were just out for a racecourse gallop in a hundred-grander. In the short-term, I’m going positive and rating the second and third as fighting out an ‘average’ Saturday TV handicap and we’ll see how that pans out.
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It turns out only Tea For Two has done anything for the form but it was on faster ground and maybe the other principals will do so when it dries up again.

Three words spring to mind:

"Clear", "as" and "mud".
 
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I'm still happy with my Empire of dirt ticket from a few weeks ago. I do think course form counts for a lot and when you look at his win last year form franked by ballycasey this year who has won off 160. Confident if he turns up he will place at least.
 
Yes.....though Thistlecrack's absence may compel a re-think.

That and the fact that he is their best chance of winning the Gold Cup.
 
granger said:
I wouldn't use Ballycasey as a confident yardstick but if you have EOD at big prices be happy

i have a decent saver on Sizing John at 50s
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At the prices we both have we have to be happy. Heard the RYA air but I can't believe with Thistlecrack out they won't go for it . appreciate Ballycasey not a decent yardstick but EOD has to be significantly better than that horse.
 
After the Cotswold Chase I did not fancy Thistlecrack at all for the GC - his jumping suffered round Cheltenham with two grand proper jumpers in soft ground . I was very worried what might happen over 3m 2f on quicker ground to a novice and I was a bit surprised he was outstayed up the hill by Many Clouds as if Scudamore was hanging on to thin air . I know he is 9 but it may well be a blessing in disguise for the horse if he can come back by Christmas and go there next year a more experienced chaser.

After Saturday - it is for me all about whether Cue Card gets the trip . If he does he wins .
 
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Part time punter said:
At the prices we both have we have to be happy. Heard the RYA air but I can't believe with Thistlecrack out they won't go for it . appreciate Ballycasey not a decent yardstick but EOD has to be significantly better than that horse.
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Ignore Ballycasey and use Don Poli and Sizing John as your yardsticks, and you have a horse who absolutely deserves his chance in a Gold Cup.

EOD is 10yo now, and won't get another shot at the race. He is better-proven at the track than either of the other Gigginstown candidates, and I'm starting to convince myself that they will let him take his chance in the Gold Cup.

#rosetintedgoggles
 
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Cue Card wins the Gold Cup and the Snook's decision back in December has cost connections a million pound. Wonder if they'll all still be best buds in three weeks time :ninja:
 
This all follows a statement by Colin Tizzard that the heat has gone from Thistlecrack's leg and that they plan to rescan it. Just folk getting over excited.
 
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