The thoughts of Nick Mordin.
- Thread starter Colin Phillips
- Start date
Colin Phillips
At the Start
ASTROLOGY A SERIOUS DERBY CANDIDATE
ASTROLOGY (39) set a strong pace and just kept on running to win the Dee Stakes by eleven lengths in fast time. The searching gallop and very testing ground made the race a real stamina test, so I have n doubt that he will get the mile and a half of the Derby.
This was a very good Derby Trial. It merited the same speed rating I gave Astrology's stablemate Camelot for winning the Guineas. So I think the bookies have got him way too big for the Derby at 20-1. He now looks one of the big players at Epsom.
Astrology is a good-bodied, muscular, mature, classy looking sort that's a good mover. So he will surely have no trouble running as fast on quicker ground..
On his debut Astrology was allowed to remain wide from his outermost draw in a one mile 2YO maiden at Leopardstown. He had to be nudged along to go the strong pace early but began to pick up as they started rounding the home turn. He quickened up nicely when asked for his run and soon blew by the leaders despite racing green and unfocused with his head in the air while not putting in maximum effort. Once he was able to see the running rail in the final furlong he veered towards it. He was full of run crossing the line and clearly much better than his rivals.
Next time out Astrology tackled the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh.
Settled in the rear, Astrology moved up effortlessly on the wide outside, showing serious acceleration without being pressured and quickly took the lead two furlongs out, moving way better than his rivals. But when his jockey asked him to kick on and win the race he flashed his tail four times and eased himself up dramatically while veering to his left. He ended up third by two and a half lengths to the top class pair Dragon Pulse and Parish Hall.
That run looked horrible. But at Chester Astrology showed no sign of such behaviour, so I'm going to put it down to greenness.
Next time out Astrology might well have won the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket on his final 2YO start but for similar quirky behaviour. He moved well to dispute the lead in his group in the middle of the course. But as the race began in earnest he clearly didn't like the idea of being isolated in the middle of the course. He eased himself up and dropped back to fourth. A crack of the whip saw him focus again to move back into second. But then he saw the running rail with the winner racing next to it and that became an irresistible attraction. He veered left towards it and smashed into Red Aggressor who was racing just behind him. He'd blown his chance but it looked like he'd retain second place till his lack of focus saw him lose that position close home. As in both his previous starts, he clearly was not putting in maximum effort in the closing stages.
Astrology is clearly a very useful horse with a terrific turn of foot. Most likely his earlier wayward tendencies up the straight at Newmarket and around the dog leg 7f at the Curragh were prompted by the wide open nature of those courses. He has now won both times he's run around a full turn. The big field and tight turns in the Derby should suit him well. I see him running a big race there.
RETRIEVE HAS A BIG SHOT IN GROSSER DALLMAYR-PREIS
RETRIEVE (41) ran second in three Australian Group 1's. Following his smart success in a good Conditions race on Lingfield's Polytrack I can readily see him going one better and scoring a win at the top level in Europe.
The early pace wasn't that great in Retrieve's race but the way he quickened up saw them cover the last half mile 2.1 seconds faster than Main Sequence in the Derby Trial, 1.2 seconds faster than Vow in the Oaks Trial and 1.4 seconds faster than Bronze Prince in the good one mile handicap. My sectional timing formula indicates the performance merits a borderline Group 1 speed rating.
The breathing operation that Retrieve has had since flopping on his first two European starts has clearly worked.
I sometimes think that Godolphin and Coolmore are in a competition to tell us as little about the future plans for their horses as possible. So the cynical side of me was not surprised to read that Retrieve's trainer Saeed bin Suroor told reporters after the race "There are no plans for him."
In fact Retrieve holds two Group 1 entries, both in Germany. The first is the Grosser Preis von Berlin on July 22nd over a mile and a half. The second is the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis over ten furlongs a week later.
I'm not a great fan of taking on the Germans over their specialist distance of a mile and a half. But they're weaker over the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis distance of ten furlongs which does look to be perfect for Retrieve judged by his physique and the way he ran at Lingfield.
The Grosser Dallmayr-Preis is often a weak Group 1 because it's timing pretty much precludes the top three year olds running. In addition the top German horses tend to be best over a mile and a half and they have the option of the longer race a week earlier.
BETTEBETTERBETTER STILL HAS A SHOT IN THE OAKS
Mark Johnston has an amazing knack of training horses to run longer distances. And German sires tend to produce horses that excel over longer trips too. So it's perhaps not so surprising that Mark Johnston's Shirocco filly GOOD MORNING STAR (37) pulled off an upset win in testing ground in the Cheshire Oaks by staying on strongly in the closing stages.
Good Morning Star is not very big and it looks like she's best when she can take advantage of this to nip around tight turns like those at Chester. So far she's run the furlongs or more three times around tight tracks and lost just once by half a length. She's probably only Listed class and may need tight turns to produce her best, but she's capable of winning again in pattern company on my ratings.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) looked sure to win when kicking clear just after entering the short homestraight. But it looked like she idled in the lead and the soft ground exaggerated the effect of this and allowed the winner to catch and beat her a short head.
My impression was that on faster ground or with a little more experience Betterbetterbetter would have won this by a couple of lengths. As I see it this run did nothing to diminish her chances of at least placing in the Oaks - a race where her stable seem to have a very strong hand.
FRENCH OAKS MAYBE A BETTER OPTION FOR VOW THAN EPSOM
VOW (36) is a big bodied, heavy topped filly with a long stride. So I guess it's not surprising she got thrown wide by the tight home turn of Lingfield's Polytrack when winning the Oaks Trial. Thereafter she was unbalanced and drifted both ways up the straight but had so much in hand of her rivals she was able to sprint away from them anyway.
The obvious question now is whether Vow will be able to handle the much tougher home turn at Epsom.
Epsom's home bend is steeply downhill. There's a sharp turn into the straight which has a notorious counter-camber that unbalances many horses. You have to wonder whether it is going to suit Vow, especially at this very early stage of her career when she's only had two lifetime starts.
If Vow had kept straight I can readily believe she'd have run two or three lengths faster. That would bump her rating up to 37 or 38 when I invoke my sectional timing formula. And that's certainly in the ballpark of what's needed at Epsom. However, after seeing this run, I have to say that if she were mine I'd be inclined to take up her entry in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) instead of risking her at Epsom.
Vow has shown in both her outings to date that she can produce a serious burst of finishing speed. That's exactly what wins big races in France.
The Jockey Club course at Chantilly, on which the Prix de Diane is run, is a mile and a half around, features a steep uphill section where the track rises ten metres and has a three furlong homestraight. It looks more suitable for Vow than Epsom to me.
You could argue that the 10.5f of the Prix de Diane is a bit short for Vow as she stays a mile and a half and is so deep chested she'd probably have no trouble with the St Leger distance. But she blitzed her rivals with her sprint finish off a slow pace at Lingfield. So I don't think the cut back in trip in France would be a problem. The French race normally features a strong early pace too.
You could also argue that Vow could have trouble beating the brilliant French filly Beauty Parlour at Chantilly. But I'd rather risk that than the possibility of her getting jarred up or worse coming down the hill at Epsom.
Later on the Irish Oaks and the St Leger are logical targets for Vow. The Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille would suit her as well.
AIKEN HAS A REAL SHOT IN HARDWICKE STAKES
AIKEN (41) made a successful transition to pattern company when winning a mile and a half Listed race at ascot by ten lengths. He rolled clear in the closing stages to score by ten lengths.
Aiken clocked a time 2.7 seconds faster than the other mile and a half race on the card. And he covered the last six furlongs in the same time as the winner of that race. This indicates he put up a lifetime best performance here that was good enough to win the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over the same course and distance next month.
I don't see any good reason why Aiken shouldn't handle faster ground. Indeed he already has when winning a hot little handicap at Sandown.
FATHER OF SCIENCE CAN IMPROVE
FATHER OF SCIENCE (34) didn't clock that great a time when winning a ten furlong maiden at Chester. But the early pace was so strong that it caused the whole field to tire rather dramatically in the closing stages. They took 2.5 seconds longer to cover the last three furlongs than they did in the Cheshire Oaks.
I suspect the lopsidedly fast early gallop hurt the final time. Certainly it made the race ride more like a mile and a half contest in the very slow ground.
I liked the way Father Of Science came away from his field in the closing stages. He looked like a good horse as he did so and certainly has the physique and pedigree of one.
I doubt that Father Of Science will prove to be a Group 1 horse as a truly top class horse would probably have clocked a much better final time despite the testing early pace. But I can easily see him winning a Listed or Group race.
ANOTHER BIG RUN BY DUNTLE
The 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown saw a remarkable speed duel between multiple Group placed Princess Sinead and DUNTLE (36) who broke the track record and scored by the biggest margin ever seen on the course when scoring at Dundalk recently.
The pair reached the three furlong pole a near impossible 2.4 seconds faster than they went in the preceding strongly run Group 3 won by the top class Famous Name. Not surprisingly Princess Sinead stopped to finish tailed off by 28 lengths. But Duntle actually kicked on into a two length lead at the two furlong marker and wasn't headed until inside the final furlong. At that point she was rolling around through tiredness.
Off a more sensible early gallop or on faster ground I feel sure Duntle would have held on. If I'm right then we're looking at a genuine Group 1 filly.
The winner was YELLOW ROSEBUD (38) who came out of the pack to take the lead late and score by a length. She'd run second to Maybe in the Group 2 Debutante last year and fourth in the Boussac, but this was a step ahead of those efforts. She looks a solid candidate for the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Runner up DEVOTION (37) is built and bred for longer distances. But the searching pace and soft ground brought her stamina into play, enabling her to stay on strongly for second. I doubt that she'd be able to reproduce this form off a normal pace over a mile. She'll be interesting when she goes longer though and is yet another decent Oaks prospect for Ballydoyle.
Third placed CORAL WAVE (37) earned a Group 1 rating from me when winning a Listed race last year and went on the become the only horse to beat subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes next time. Her trainer, Paddy Prendergast, had warned that she'd come on considerably for the run (her first of the season) so she did really well to get beat only a length.
LIGHT HEAVY CRYING OUT FOR A MILE AND A HALF
Coolmore pacemaker TOWER ROCK (37) very nearly stole the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial when allowed to set a moderate pace. This enabled him to save enough energy to cover the last three furlongs a fifth of a second faster than they went in the Group 3 over a mile won by Famous Name earlier on the card.
It took the winner LIGHT HEAVY (37) the length of the homestraight to grind away at Tower Rock's lead and finally get by him inside the last furlong.
I can't rate this performance quite as highly as Light Heavy's win in the Ballysax Stakes even when I adjust my rating for the near sprint finish. But Light Heavy will surely be capable of better over the mile and a half of the Irish Derby. He looked to be crying out for that distance here.
ATHENS GETS INTERESTING FOR IRISH DERBY
Longchamp's downhill homestraight claimed another victim in the Prix Hocquart when front running ATHENS (39) was caught and swamped for finishing speed by four French rivals in one of the wild sprint finishes the track so often produces.
On a normal track the gallop Athens set would have ensured that the last three furlongs was run in 36 seconds or more. In which case I don't think he'd have been caught. But the energy-saving nature of the long downhill run to the furlong marker at Longchamp saw them clock a seriously quick 33.56 seconds for the last three furlongs - compared with the 36.50 seconds for the final three furlongs of the much shorter Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) where they went a truly scorching pace for the first five furlongs.
I really liked the way Athens kept on strongly when headed and tried to catch back up to the horses that had passed him. I'm now getting rather interested in his chances for the Irish Derby where the more testing track never produces finishes this fast
If there had been in-running betting on the race I'm sure SAINT LOUP (39) would have been a short price turning in. He was visibly going better than any of his rivals for most of the race but, like Athens, he couldn't quite cope with the extreme sprint finish. Off a stronger early pace, on a more testing tack or over a furlong longer I think he might have won this.
LOI (39) finished last in the bunched sprint finish. But he was staying on strongly. I wouldn't write off his chances of winning the Prix du Jockey Club off this run, though clearly he's going to be better suited to the mile and a half of the Grand Prix de Paris.
The winner TOP TRIP (40) produced a really good burst of speed to catch the leaders and then kick away from then in the last fifty yards. He won a really good race here and now has to rank as a big player in the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris. It's interesting to note that the only horse to beat him in his last four starts was the unbeaten Derby entrant Kesampour who had him two lengths back in second at Saint-Cloud last month. In fact the form of both Kesampour's races this season is starting to look better with every passing day, so I think I need to take his Derby chances a good deal more seriously now.
Runner up MASTERSTROKE (40) looks rather weak and not fully developed up front, so I suspect he will improve in the latter half of the season after his midsummer break when he'll get the chance to mature and strengthen. He came through to challenge in the last furlong but could not go with the winner and went under by half a length. He's clearly smart but I think he's not quite mature enough to win a Group 1.
Third placed SIR JADE (39) chased Athens most of the way. He's the least good looking of the six runners in the race and the way the first two readily caught and outpaced him in the last furlong makes me think he's a Group 2 rather than a Group 1 horse.
BEAUTY PARLOUR STILL FOLLOWING IN ZARKAVA'S FOOTSTEPS
BEAUTY PARLOUR (38) got away with running over the inadequate mile of the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches thanks to the decent gallop set by her pacemaker. It was a bit messy as she had to take the lead a little sooner than ideal and UP (37) came out of the pace to press her in the closing stages. But, despite running a bit below the form she showed last time, she kept her unbeaten record and now has the chance to emulate Zarkava who became the first horse in many years to land the fillies Triple Crown in France - the Pouliches, the Prix de Diane and the Vermeille.
Like Zarkava, Beauty Parlour is built and bred for a mile and a half. But I'd say her biggest challenge is actually going to come when she tackles the Vermeille over that distance.
There are three exceptional older middle distance fillies in France this year in Giofra, Galikova and Solemia. Beauty Parlour is going to have to be as good as Zarkava to beat them in the Prix Vermeille.
Up was hung out wide at the back of the big field early and had to weave her way through to deliver her strong late run. Clearly she'll be better suited by a longer distance. I can't put her in the same class as her stablemate Kissed on my ratings but she deserves a shot at the Oaks.
The other horse to take out of the race for me was our old friend PETITE NOBLESSE (33) who I've written up here a few times now. This handsome filly moved well for a long way but got boxed in and then lacked the pace to catch the leaders when seeing daylight over a clearly inadequate distance. Her jockey only rode her out hands and heels in the last furlong once he saw she wasn't able to get there.
Petite Noblesse is a long striding, scopey filly that has been crying out for a step up to middle distances. She can have another crack at the winner in the Prix de Diane over 10.5f, but her best shot of winning a Group 1 would surely be in the Prix Saint-Alary on the 27th of this month.
ASTROLOGY (39) set a strong pace and just kept on running to win the Dee Stakes by eleven lengths in fast time. The searching gallop and very testing ground made the race a real stamina test, so I have n doubt that he will get the mile and a half of the Derby.
This was a very good Derby Trial. It merited the same speed rating I gave Astrology's stablemate Camelot for winning the Guineas. So I think the bookies have got him way too big for the Derby at 20-1. He now looks one of the big players at Epsom.
Astrology is a good-bodied, muscular, mature, classy looking sort that's a good mover. So he will surely have no trouble running as fast on quicker ground..
On his debut Astrology was allowed to remain wide from his outermost draw in a one mile 2YO maiden at Leopardstown. He had to be nudged along to go the strong pace early but began to pick up as they started rounding the home turn. He quickened up nicely when asked for his run and soon blew by the leaders despite racing green and unfocused with his head in the air while not putting in maximum effort. Once he was able to see the running rail in the final furlong he veered towards it. He was full of run crossing the line and clearly much better than his rivals.
Next time out Astrology tackled the Group 2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh.
Settled in the rear, Astrology moved up effortlessly on the wide outside, showing serious acceleration without being pressured and quickly took the lead two furlongs out, moving way better than his rivals. But when his jockey asked him to kick on and win the race he flashed his tail four times and eased himself up dramatically while veering to his left. He ended up third by two and a half lengths to the top class pair Dragon Pulse and Parish Hall.
That run looked horrible. But at Chester Astrology showed no sign of such behaviour, so I'm going to put it down to greenness.
Next time out Astrology might well have won the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket on his final 2YO start but for similar quirky behaviour. He moved well to dispute the lead in his group in the middle of the course. But as the race began in earnest he clearly didn't like the idea of being isolated in the middle of the course. He eased himself up and dropped back to fourth. A crack of the whip saw him focus again to move back into second. But then he saw the running rail with the winner racing next to it and that became an irresistible attraction. He veered left towards it and smashed into Red Aggressor who was racing just behind him. He'd blown his chance but it looked like he'd retain second place till his lack of focus saw him lose that position close home. As in both his previous starts, he clearly was not putting in maximum effort in the closing stages.
Astrology is clearly a very useful horse with a terrific turn of foot. Most likely his earlier wayward tendencies up the straight at Newmarket and around the dog leg 7f at the Curragh were prompted by the wide open nature of those courses. He has now won both times he's run around a full turn. The big field and tight turns in the Derby should suit him well. I see him running a big race there.
RETRIEVE HAS A BIG SHOT IN GROSSER DALLMAYR-PREIS
RETRIEVE (41) ran second in three Australian Group 1's. Following his smart success in a good Conditions race on Lingfield's Polytrack I can readily see him going one better and scoring a win at the top level in Europe.
The early pace wasn't that great in Retrieve's race but the way he quickened up saw them cover the last half mile 2.1 seconds faster than Main Sequence in the Derby Trial, 1.2 seconds faster than Vow in the Oaks Trial and 1.4 seconds faster than Bronze Prince in the good one mile handicap. My sectional timing formula indicates the performance merits a borderline Group 1 speed rating.
The breathing operation that Retrieve has had since flopping on his first two European starts has clearly worked.
I sometimes think that Godolphin and Coolmore are in a competition to tell us as little about the future plans for their horses as possible. So the cynical side of me was not surprised to read that Retrieve's trainer Saeed bin Suroor told reporters after the race "There are no plans for him."
In fact Retrieve holds two Group 1 entries, both in Germany. The first is the Grosser Preis von Berlin on July 22nd over a mile and a half. The second is the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis over ten furlongs a week later.
I'm not a great fan of taking on the Germans over their specialist distance of a mile and a half. But they're weaker over the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis distance of ten furlongs which does look to be perfect for Retrieve judged by his physique and the way he ran at Lingfield.
The Grosser Dallmayr-Preis is often a weak Group 1 because it's timing pretty much precludes the top three year olds running. In addition the top German horses tend to be best over a mile and a half and they have the option of the longer race a week earlier.
BETTEBETTERBETTER STILL HAS A SHOT IN THE OAKS
Mark Johnston has an amazing knack of training horses to run longer distances. And German sires tend to produce horses that excel over longer trips too. So it's perhaps not so surprising that Mark Johnston's Shirocco filly GOOD MORNING STAR (37) pulled off an upset win in testing ground in the Cheshire Oaks by staying on strongly in the closing stages.
Good Morning Star is not very big and it looks like she's best when she can take advantage of this to nip around tight turns like those at Chester. So far she's run the furlongs or more three times around tight tracks and lost just once by half a length. She's probably only Listed class and may need tight turns to produce her best, but she's capable of winning again in pattern company on my ratings.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) looked sure to win when kicking clear just after entering the short homestraight. But it looked like she idled in the lead and the soft ground exaggerated the effect of this and allowed the winner to catch and beat her a short head.
My impression was that on faster ground or with a little more experience Betterbetterbetter would have won this by a couple of lengths. As I see it this run did nothing to diminish her chances of at least placing in the Oaks - a race where her stable seem to have a very strong hand.
FRENCH OAKS MAYBE A BETTER OPTION FOR VOW THAN EPSOM
VOW (36) is a big bodied, heavy topped filly with a long stride. So I guess it's not surprising she got thrown wide by the tight home turn of Lingfield's Polytrack when winning the Oaks Trial. Thereafter she was unbalanced and drifted both ways up the straight but had so much in hand of her rivals she was able to sprint away from them anyway.
The obvious question now is whether Vow will be able to handle the much tougher home turn at Epsom.
Epsom's home bend is steeply downhill. There's a sharp turn into the straight which has a notorious counter-camber that unbalances many horses. You have to wonder whether it is going to suit Vow, especially at this very early stage of her career when she's only had two lifetime starts.
If Vow had kept straight I can readily believe she'd have run two or three lengths faster. That would bump her rating up to 37 or 38 when I invoke my sectional timing formula. And that's certainly in the ballpark of what's needed at Epsom. However, after seeing this run, I have to say that if she were mine I'd be inclined to take up her entry in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) instead of risking her at Epsom.
Vow has shown in both her outings to date that she can produce a serious burst of finishing speed. That's exactly what wins big races in France.
The Jockey Club course at Chantilly, on which the Prix de Diane is run, is a mile and a half around, features a steep uphill section where the track rises ten metres and has a three furlong homestraight. It looks more suitable for Vow than Epsom to me.
You could argue that the 10.5f of the Prix de Diane is a bit short for Vow as she stays a mile and a half and is so deep chested she'd probably have no trouble with the St Leger distance. But she blitzed her rivals with her sprint finish off a slow pace at Lingfield. So I don't think the cut back in trip in France would be a problem. The French race normally features a strong early pace too.
You could also argue that Vow could have trouble beating the brilliant French filly Beauty Parlour at Chantilly. But I'd rather risk that than the possibility of her getting jarred up or worse coming down the hill at Epsom.
Later on the Irish Oaks and the St Leger are logical targets for Vow. The Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille would suit her as well.
AIKEN HAS A REAL SHOT IN HARDWICKE STAKES
AIKEN (41) made a successful transition to pattern company when winning a mile and a half Listed race at ascot by ten lengths. He rolled clear in the closing stages to score by ten lengths.
Aiken clocked a time 2.7 seconds faster than the other mile and a half race on the card. And he covered the last six furlongs in the same time as the winner of that race. This indicates he put up a lifetime best performance here that was good enough to win the Group 2 Hardwicke Stakes over the same course and distance next month.
I don't see any good reason why Aiken shouldn't handle faster ground. Indeed he already has when winning a hot little handicap at Sandown.
FATHER OF SCIENCE CAN IMPROVE
FATHER OF SCIENCE (34) didn't clock that great a time when winning a ten furlong maiden at Chester. But the early pace was so strong that it caused the whole field to tire rather dramatically in the closing stages. They took 2.5 seconds longer to cover the last three furlongs than they did in the Cheshire Oaks.
I suspect the lopsidedly fast early gallop hurt the final time. Certainly it made the race ride more like a mile and a half contest in the very slow ground.
I liked the way Father Of Science came away from his field in the closing stages. He looked like a good horse as he did so and certainly has the physique and pedigree of one.
I doubt that Father Of Science will prove to be a Group 1 horse as a truly top class horse would probably have clocked a much better final time despite the testing early pace. But I can easily see him winning a Listed or Group race.
ANOTHER BIG RUN BY DUNTLE
The 1000 Guineas trial at Leopardstown saw a remarkable speed duel between multiple Group placed Princess Sinead and DUNTLE (36) who broke the track record and scored by the biggest margin ever seen on the course when scoring at Dundalk recently.
The pair reached the three furlong pole a near impossible 2.4 seconds faster than they went in the preceding strongly run Group 3 won by the top class Famous Name. Not surprisingly Princess Sinead stopped to finish tailed off by 28 lengths. But Duntle actually kicked on into a two length lead at the two furlong marker and wasn't headed until inside the final furlong. At that point she was rolling around through tiredness.
Off a more sensible early gallop or on faster ground I feel sure Duntle would have held on. If I'm right then we're looking at a genuine Group 1 filly.
The winner was YELLOW ROSEBUD (38) who came out of the pack to take the lead late and score by a length. She'd run second to Maybe in the Group 2 Debutante last year and fourth in the Boussac, but this was a step ahead of those efforts. She looks a solid candidate for the Irish 1000 Guineas.
Runner up DEVOTION (37) is built and bred for longer distances. But the searching pace and soft ground brought her stamina into play, enabling her to stay on strongly for second. I doubt that she'd be able to reproduce this form off a normal pace over a mile. She'll be interesting when she goes longer though and is yet another decent Oaks prospect for Ballydoyle.
Third placed CORAL WAVE (37) earned a Group 1 rating from me when winning a Listed race last year and went on the become the only horse to beat subsequent 1000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen in the Group 3 Weld Park Stakes next time. Her trainer, Paddy Prendergast, had warned that she'd come on considerably for the run (her first of the season) so she did really well to get beat only a length.
LIGHT HEAVY CRYING OUT FOR A MILE AND A HALF
Coolmore pacemaker TOWER ROCK (37) very nearly stole the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial when allowed to set a moderate pace. This enabled him to save enough energy to cover the last three furlongs a fifth of a second faster than they went in the Group 3 over a mile won by Famous Name earlier on the card.
It took the winner LIGHT HEAVY (37) the length of the homestraight to grind away at Tower Rock's lead and finally get by him inside the last furlong.
I can't rate this performance quite as highly as Light Heavy's win in the Ballysax Stakes even when I adjust my rating for the near sprint finish. But Light Heavy will surely be capable of better over the mile and a half of the Irish Derby. He looked to be crying out for that distance here.
ATHENS GETS INTERESTING FOR IRISH DERBY
Longchamp's downhill homestraight claimed another victim in the Prix Hocquart when front running ATHENS (39) was caught and swamped for finishing speed by four French rivals in one of the wild sprint finishes the track so often produces.
On a normal track the gallop Athens set would have ensured that the last three furlongs was run in 36 seconds or more. In which case I don't think he'd have been caught. But the energy-saving nature of the long downhill run to the furlong marker at Longchamp saw them clock a seriously quick 33.56 seconds for the last three furlongs - compared with the 36.50 seconds for the final three furlongs of the much shorter Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) where they went a truly scorching pace for the first five furlongs.
I really liked the way Athens kept on strongly when headed and tried to catch back up to the horses that had passed him. I'm now getting rather interested in his chances for the Irish Derby where the more testing track never produces finishes this fast
If there had been in-running betting on the race I'm sure SAINT LOUP (39) would have been a short price turning in. He was visibly going better than any of his rivals for most of the race but, like Athens, he couldn't quite cope with the extreme sprint finish. Off a stronger early pace, on a more testing tack or over a furlong longer I think he might have won this.
LOI (39) finished last in the bunched sprint finish. But he was staying on strongly. I wouldn't write off his chances of winning the Prix du Jockey Club off this run, though clearly he's going to be better suited to the mile and a half of the Grand Prix de Paris.
The winner TOP TRIP (40) produced a really good burst of speed to catch the leaders and then kick away from then in the last fifty yards. He won a really good race here and now has to rank as a big player in the Prix du Jockey Club and Grand Prix de Paris. It's interesting to note that the only horse to beat him in his last four starts was the unbeaten Derby entrant Kesampour who had him two lengths back in second at Saint-Cloud last month. In fact the form of both Kesampour's races this season is starting to look better with every passing day, so I think I need to take his Derby chances a good deal more seriously now.
Runner up MASTERSTROKE (40) looks rather weak and not fully developed up front, so I suspect he will improve in the latter half of the season after his midsummer break when he'll get the chance to mature and strengthen. He came through to challenge in the last furlong but could not go with the winner and went under by half a length. He's clearly smart but I think he's not quite mature enough to win a Group 1.
Third placed SIR JADE (39) chased Athens most of the way. He's the least good looking of the six runners in the race and the way the first two readily caught and outpaced him in the last furlong makes me think he's a Group 2 rather than a Group 1 horse.
BEAUTY PARLOUR STILL FOLLOWING IN ZARKAVA'S FOOTSTEPS
BEAUTY PARLOUR (38) got away with running over the inadequate mile of the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches thanks to the decent gallop set by her pacemaker. It was a bit messy as she had to take the lead a little sooner than ideal and UP (37) came out of the pace to press her in the closing stages. But, despite running a bit below the form she showed last time, she kept her unbeaten record and now has the chance to emulate Zarkava who became the first horse in many years to land the fillies Triple Crown in France - the Pouliches, the Prix de Diane and the Vermeille.
Like Zarkava, Beauty Parlour is built and bred for a mile and a half. But I'd say her biggest challenge is actually going to come when she tackles the Vermeille over that distance.
There are three exceptional older middle distance fillies in France this year in Giofra, Galikova and Solemia. Beauty Parlour is going to have to be as good as Zarkava to beat them in the Prix Vermeille.
Up was hung out wide at the back of the big field early and had to weave her way through to deliver her strong late run. Clearly she'll be better suited by a longer distance. I can't put her in the same class as her stablemate Kissed on my ratings but she deserves a shot at the Oaks.
The other horse to take out of the race for me was our old friend PETITE NOBLESSE (33) who I've written up here a few times now. This handsome filly moved well for a long way but got boxed in and then lacked the pace to catch the leaders when seeing daylight over a clearly inadequate distance. Her jockey only rode her out hands and heels in the last furlong once he saw she wasn't able to get there.
Petite Noblesse is a long striding, scopey filly that has been crying out for a step up to middle distances. She can have another crack at the winner in the Prix de Diane over 10.5f, but her best shot of winning a Group 1 would surely be in the Prix Saint-Alary on the 27th of this month.
B
Bruce_Savage
Guest
POSTED ON MAY 22, 2012
BONFIRE SHOULD BE DERBY FAVOURITE AFTER DANTE WIN
BONFIRE (42) put up a top class performance when taking the Dante. Normally there is some room for debate about which horse has run the best Derby Trial and how much they can improve at Epsom. But this run leaves no doubts because Bonfire ran as fast as almost any Derby winner. There is no question in my mind that if he reproduces this run he should win the Derby.
I liked the way Bonfire got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up that saw the pair power clear of the rest over the last quarter mile. I also liked the way he found a bit extra to kick away in the last 75 yards.
You can make a decent case for saying that Bonfire won't stay the extra furlong and a half at Epsom. After all he has the build of a ten furlong horse. His pedigree points the same way too. And his dam, her four foals and her three siblings have so far failed to win beyond ten furlongs. However you could have made similar arguments for many Dante winners, but the last twenty or more all stayed a mile and a half, if only at Epsom where the long downhill run to the straight makes it so much easier for doubtful stayers to last home.
The clincher for me is the way Bonfire kicked clear late following a good early pace and a sustained duel with the runner up. If he fails to stay the mile and a half at Epsom having done that I'd be very surprised.
Seeing how well he performed in the Dante it is interesting to look back at Bonfire's previous runs.
He won a one mile maiden at Salisbury on soft ground first time out.
He was ponied down to the start for that race and seemed to be caught by surprise when the stalls opened - hesitating then jinking to his left.
The slow start caused a wall of horses to be in front of Bonfire in a densely packed field, so traffic problems looked a big possibility. But his jockey waited patiently for the gap caused by the junction of the courses then urged him forward. He saw another gap towards his left, nudged him towards it and the race was soon over. Bonfire only had to be nudged along from there.
Inside the last furlong Bonfire was just coasting along with little effort when he seemed to spot something in the distance (almost certainly the entrance to the stables). Despite the sheepskin noseband he was wearing his head came up to get a better view of what he was looking at He pricked his ears and started to run a bit faster and was hard to pull up after crossing the line.
It wasn't a great race but Bonfire won it as if it was no more than an exercise canter. The noseband, the quirky behaviour in the last furlong and the fact he needed to be ponied to the start all raised the idea that he was very green and needed more experience.
Next time out Bonfire was stepped up to Group 1 company for the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He was allowed to drop back through the field after a good start to race ninth of the eleven runners.
As with his first run, traffic problems soon looked likely as there seemed to be no gaps he could take to improve his position approaching halfway. His jockey may have been anticipating a gap opening up as they rounded the home turn since the field often makes its way towards the stands rail on soft ground at Saint-Cloud, creating a huge gap for horses that were racing on the inside. But that did not happen in this race, so Bonfire was totally bottled up with nowhere to go.
With three hundred metres left Bonfire's jockey was forced to take a pull as a gap closed in front of him. He was visibly full of run at that point. It wasn't until 200 metres out that a gap finally appeared and by then French Fifteen had already started to charge down the outside. It was simply too late for Bonfire to get to the lead but he surged forwards to take third, gaining ground hand over fist all the way to the line despite only being pushed out hands and heels.
With a clear run Bonfire might very well have run. Certainly it would have been close between him and French Fifteen who clocked a seriously good time.
That French run suggests Bonfire is highly manoeuvrable, as does his physique. This is an obvious plus for Epsom.
The only legitimate concern I can see about the Derby for Bonfire is the one expressed by his trainer before the Dante. He said he was worried that Bonfire might not have time to recover from a tough race in the Dante in the two and a half weeks before the Derby.
Certainly Bonfire had a fairly hard race in the Dante. But it was still his seasonal debut and the vast majority of horses that run best fresh can take their first two runs of the season back to back before they need to be rested.
Runner up EKTIHAAM (41) is a big-bodied, powerful sort that is not as well balanced as the winner. Indeed he apparently got unbalanced at Newmarket the only time he was asked to tackle anything but a dead flat track. Here he was held up last and then surged forward with three furlongs left and soon engaged in a prolonged duel with Bonfire. He pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to get by Bonfire but couldn't quite do so.
Trainer Roger Varian felt that Bonfire saw out the distance a bit better than Ektihaam, so he plans on keeping him to a mile and a quarter for now.
Third placed FENCING (38) could not go with the first two in the closing stages. But he was so far clear of the rest that his jockey only rode him out hands and heels for most of the final furlong. This was a clear improvement on his Guineas run which he clearly needed. He may very well be able to improve again in the Derby, though I concede it's hard to see him reversing placings with the winner.
FRANKEL RUNS IMPOSSIBLY FAST
It's quite easy to tell when the horses pass the five furlong marker from videos of races at Newbury. They cross the camera at that point, the rails on the near side end and the five furlong marker itself is very obvious.
This being so I know I've clocked the final five furlongs for all the races at Newbury last Saturday accurately. I mention this because not only did FRANKEL (47) run much closer to my standard times (and everybody's) than any other winner on the card, he also ran the final five furlongs much faster.
The only horse to come close to Frankel's final five furlongs was Palace Moon, a Listed class sprinter. In his race they ran the last five furlongs 1.2 seconds slower than they did in Frankel's Lockinge. Seeing how fast Frankel had run the first three furlongs of his race and that Palace Moon's race was two furlongs shorter simply equalling the final five furlong time of the sprint would have entitled Frankel to a solid Group 1 speed rating. Running 1.2 seconds faster amazes me.
Frankel does seem to be an almost unstoppable force over a mile. And his pedigree, physique and big stride all indicate he's crying out for ten furlongs. However I don't think it would be a great idea to step him up in distance at Royal Ascot for the Prince Of Wales Stakes. He came closest to defeat when only just scraping home in the St James's Palace Stakes at the same meeting last year. It may very well be that his huge stride makes him unsuited to tracks with relatively short homestraights like Ascot's round course. If he were mind I wouldn't risk his unbeaten record there. I would wait for the longer homestraights provided by Sandown's Eclipse Stakes or York's Juddmonte International.
Out of interest I counted how many strides Frankel took to cover the last five furlongs. It was 135. That means his stride length was 24.4 feet, a bit more than 10% longer than average. At the slightly slower pace he'd be going over ten furlongs he would probably adopt a longer stride of around 27 feet. Indeed I bet he's already done that in races where he hasn't been pressed to go as fast as he was here.
Runner up EXCELEBRATION (42) was asked to shadow Frankel's every move but simply couldn't go with him in the closing stages. Nonetheless he proved that he's a proper Group 1 horse with this performance.
Seeing that he's a nippy sort with plenty of pace and acceleration and won the German Guineas so impressively around the tight track at Cologne, the race I'd be aiming Excelebration at long term would be the Breeders' Cup Mile.
THE FUGUE HAS A MAJOR CHANCE IN OAKS
THE FUGUE (39) clocked a time fast enough to win the Oaks when taking the Musidora. She cruised up to lead two furlongs out and proceeded to draw clear without having to be ridden too hard.
This run ranks as equal to the smart performance of Kissed in the Salsabil Stakes on my ratings. The difference between the two fillies is that so far Kissed has yet to prove she acts on anything but soft ground whereas The Fugue clearly prefers a faster surface.
The Fugue is a more substantial filly than Kissed, being good-bodied and quite muscular. This suggests she'll take her racing better without needing as many breaks and that she'll have more pace and acceleration. However the mile and a half of the Oaks should swing things back in favour of Kissed
Trainer John Gosden says that if the ground ends up being too soft at Epsom he will divert The Fugue to the Prix de Diane. So, as I see it, the result of the Oaks now depends on the ground. If it's good or faster The Fugue should win. If it's good to soft or softer Kissed should score.
DERBY IS STILL WORTH A SHOT WITH NOBLE MISSION
NOBLE MISSION (38) just missed scoring his third successive win when beaten a neck in the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket. He was flat to the boards when the gallop picked up off the ordinary early pace. But he was picking up strongly in the last furlong.
It looks clear that Noble Mission wants a mile and a half. It's now looking even more likely that he is not a Group 1 horse. However he is still lightly raced and looks likely to improve for the longer distance at Epsom. So it looks logical to give3 him a shot at the Derby.
The winner THOUGHT WORTHY (38) led most of the way but started running a bit green and lost the lead soon after the pace picked up. He looked set to lose until rallying surprisingly strongly when getting more organised in the final furlong.
Thought Worthy is a brother to Lucarno and it looks logical to follow the same path to the St Leger as that one via the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He clearly has a touch of class and a fair turn of foot though, so it will be tempting for his owners to let him take his chance at Epsom. I can see him reaching the first four if he does.
A MILE MAYBE BETTER FOR ALJAMAAHEER THAN SEVEN FURLONGS
ALJAMAAHEER (37) produced a serious turn of foot to win the Listed King Charles II Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket. He's a good moving sort that clearly needs a fast surface. I got the impression that the seven furlongs was the absolute minimum for him and that he only managed to win because the early pace was strong enough to bring his stamina into play. I reckon he'll be better suited to a mile, so I'm a little dubious about his prospects for the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs.
BISHOP ROKO IS SMART
BISHOP ROKO (37) clocked a very decent time to win a ten furlong maiden at Newbury in which he sprinted six lengths clear in the last furlong. He's only medium sized, so he did well to recover quickly after bumping with a rival two furlongs out. The way that he ran away from his rivals thereafter suggests he's smart. Certainly he's Listed class at least on my ratings.
EXPENSE CLAIM SHOULD BE TOUGH TO BEAT AT ROYAL ASCOT
The London Gold Cup is invariably one of the hottest three year old handicaps of the season. But EXPENSE CLAIM (36) won it as though his rivals were moderate. This good-bodied, muscular, mature colt cruised away from his rivals in the final furlong while running fast and passed the post full of running. I can only award him a Listed class rating for the win but it looks clear he can run faster. He's not unbeaten in three starts over middle distances.
I would have thought that the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes was the logical target at Royal Ascot for Expense Claim. But the plan apparently is to keep him to handicap company for the valuable King George V handicap instead. He should have a favourite's chance of winning that race and would merit serious consideration if diverted to the Group 2 race.
GATEWOOD IS GROUP CLASS
GATEWOOD (39) clocked a time between Group 2 and Group 3 class when winning a strongly run 10.5f handicap at York. He stayed on well from the back to lead before the furlong pole and kept on strongly, ridden right out.
Gatewood is built and bred to be most effective over a mile and a half but showed here that he can produce smart form over a bit shorter if the pace is strong enough. The race may have been a sighter for the John Smiths Cup over the same course and distance in July. But whatever race he runs in over the next few months I'd be wary of opposing Gatewood. This run was seriously good for handicap company.
Runner up ROMEO MONTAGUE (38) is hard to read. My best guess is that he's better over ten furlongs than twelve.
IZZI TOP THE ONE TO BEAT IN NASSAU
IZZI TOP (38) reinforced the idea that she's probably the top older middle distance filly in Britain with a convincing win in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York's Dante meeting. She's run a bit faster in the past but the way she picked up in the closing stages to beat a good field suggests she had something to spare. When asked to go and win her race she showed much greater leg speed than the runner up and is clearly going to be tough to get past.
Izzi Top's big objective is to secure a Group 1 win, with her main targets being the Nassau Stakes and the Prix l'Opera. With so many brilliant older French fillies around this year the Nassau is surely going to be easier to win. Izzi Top is almost certainly going to start favourite for the Goodwood race and looks the one to beat.
Runner up SAJJHA (37) is a little one paced. For this reason her best form has been on ground that race times suggest was yielding or softer. She's a rangy, scopey sort, so I'd like to see her given another shot at a mile and a half. Over that distance I suspect the ground wouldn't matter too her. The plan of cutting her back to eight and a half furlongs for the Group 3 fillies race at Epsom's Derby meeting does not strike me as a good idea.
FURY MAY WELL STAY TEN FURLONGS
FURY (37) has run one good race after another this season. So it was no big surprise to see him win a Listed mile handicap at York. I liked the way he kept on strongly to get the better of a duel with the runner up following a searching early pace. Watching his performance I got the impression that he'd have no problem stepping up to a mile and a quarter.
Fury is pretty much weighted out of handicaps now. So the plan is to tackle a Group 3 even next, probably in France. My feeling is that he could well improve a bit when he's not asked to give chunks of weight to his rivals.
BONFIRE SHOULD BE DERBY FAVOURITE AFTER DANTE WIN
BONFIRE (42) put up a top class performance when taking the Dante. Normally there is some room for debate about which horse has run the best Derby Trial and how much they can improve at Epsom. But this run leaves no doubts because Bonfire ran as fast as almost any Derby winner. There is no question in my mind that if he reproduces this run he should win the Derby.
I liked the way Bonfire got the better of a sustained duel with the runner up that saw the pair power clear of the rest over the last quarter mile. I also liked the way he found a bit extra to kick away in the last 75 yards.
You can make a decent case for saying that Bonfire won't stay the extra furlong and a half at Epsom. After all he has the build of a ten furlong horse. His pedigree points the same way too. And his dam, her four foals and her three siblings have so far failed to win beyond ten furlongs. However you could have made similar arguments for many Dante winners, but the last twenty or more all stayed a mile and a half, if only at Epsom where the long downhill run to the straight makes it so much easier for doubtful stayers to last home.
The clincher for me is the way Bonfire kicked clear late following a good early pace and a sustained duel with the runner up. If he fails to stay the mile and a half at Epsom having done that I'd be very surprised.
Seeing how well he performed in the Dante it is interesting to look back at Bonfire's previous runs.
He won a one mile maiden at Salisbury on soft ground first time out.
He was ponied down to the start for that race and seemed to be caught by surprise when the stalls opened - hesitating then jinking to his left.
The slow start caused a wall of horses to be in front of Bonfire in a densely packed field, so traffic problems looked a big possibility. But his jockey waited patiently for the gap caused by the junction of the courses then urged him forward. He saw another gap towards his left, nudged him towards it and the race was soon over. Bonfire only had to be nudged along from there.
Inside the last furlong Bonfire was just coasting along with little effort when he seemed to spot something in the distance (almost certainly the entrance to the stables). Despite the sheepskin noseband he was wearing his head came up to get a better view of what he was looking at He pricked his ears and started to run a bit faster and was hard to pull up after crossing the line.
It wasn't a great race but Bonfire won it as if it was no more than an exercise canter. The noseband, the quirky behaviour in the last furlong and the fact he needed to be ponied to the start all raised the idea that he was very green and needed more experience.
Next time out Bonfire was stepped up to Group 1 company for the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He was allowed to drop back through the field after a good start to race ninth of the eleven runners.
As with his first run, traffic problems soon looked likely as there seemed to be no gaps he could take to improve his position approaching halfway. His jockey may have been anticipating a gap opening up as they rounded the home turn since the field often makes its way towards the stands rail on soft ground at Saint-Cloud, creating a huge gap for horses that were racing on the inside. But that did not happen in this race, so Bonfire was totally bottled up with nowhere to go.
With three hundred metres left Bonfire's jockey was forced to take a pull as a gap closed in front of him. He was visibly full of run at that point. It wasn't until 200 metres out that a gap finally appeared and by then French Fifteen had already started to charge down the outside. It was simply too late for Bonfire to get to the lead but he surged forwards to take third, gaining ground hand over fist all the way to the line despite only being pushed out hands and heels.
With a clear run Bonfire might very well have run. Certainly it would have been close between him and French Fifteen who clocked a seriously good time.
That French run suggests Bonfire is highly manoeuvrable, as does his physique. This is an obvious plus for Epsom.
The only legitimate concern I can see about the Derby for Bonfire is the one expressed by his trainer before the Dante. He said he was worried that Bonfire might not have time to recover from a tough race in the Dante in the two and a half weeks before the Derby.
Certainly Bonfire had a fairly hard race in the Dante. But it was still his seasonal debut and the vast majority of horses that run best fresh can take their first two runs of the season back to back before they need to be rested.
Runner up EKTIHAAM (41) is a big-bodied, powerful sort that is not as well balanced as the winner. Indeed he apparently got unbalanced at Newmarket the only time he was asked to tackle anything but a dead flat track. Here he was held up last and then surged forward with three furlongs left and soon engaged in a prolonged duel with Bonfire. He pulled well clear of the rest in his efforts to get by Bonfire but couldn't quite do so.
Trainer Roger Varian felt that Bonfire saw out the distance a bit better than Ektihaam, so he plans on keeping him to a mile and a quarter for now.
Third placed FENCING (38) could not go with the first two in the closing stages. But he was so far clear of the rest that his jockey only rode him out hands and heels for most of the final furlong. This was a clear improvement on his Guineas run which he clearly needed. He may very well be able to improve again in the Derby, though I concede it's hard to see him reversing placings with the winner.
FRANKEL RUNS IMPOSSIBLY FAST
It's quite easy to tell when the horses pass the five furlong marker from videos of races at Newbury. They cross the camera at that point, the rails on the near side end and the five furlong marker itself is very obvious.
This being so I know I've clocked the final five furlongs for all the races at Newbury last Saturday accurately. I mention this because not only did FRANKEL (47) run much closer to my standard times (and everybody's) than any other winner on the card, he also ran the final five furlongs much faster.
The only horse to come close to Frankel's final five furlongs was Palace Moon, a Listed class sprinter. In his race they ran the last five furlongs 1.2 seconds slower than they did in Frankel's Lockinge. Seeing how fast Frankel had run the first three furlongs of his race and that Palace Moon's race was two furlongs shorter simply equalling the final five furlong time of the sprint would have entitled Frankel to a solid Group 1 speed rating. Running 1.2 seconds faster amazes me.
Frankel does seem to be an almost unstoppable force over a mile. And his pedigree, physique and big stride all indicate he's crying out for ten furlongs. However I don't think it would be a great idea to step him up in distance at Royal Ascot for the Prince Of Wales Stakes. He came closest to defeat when only just scraping home in the St James's Palace Stakes at the same meeting last year. It may very well be that his huge stride makes him unsuited to tracks with relatively short homestraights like Ascot's round course. If he were mind I wouldn't risk his unbeaten record there. I would wait for the longer homestraights provided by Sandown's Eclipse Stakes or York's Juddmonte International.
Out of interest I counted how many strides Frankel took to cover the last five furlongs. It was 135. That means his stride length was 24.4 feet, a bit more than 10% longer than average. At the slightly slower pace he'd be going over ten furlongs he would probably adopt a longer stride of around 27 feet. Indeed I bet he's already done that in races where he hasn't been pressed to go as fast as he was here.
Runner up EXCELEBRATION (42) was asked to shadow Frankel's every move but simply couldn't go with him in the closing stages. Nonetheless he proved that he's a proper Group 1 horse with this performance.
Seeing that he's a nippy sort with plenty of pace and acceleration and won the German Guineas so impressively around the tight track at Cologne, the race I'd be aiming Excelebration at long term would be the Breeders' Cup Mile.
THE FUGUE HAS A MAJOR CHANCE IN OAKS
THE FUGUE (39) clocked a time fast enough to win the Oaks when taking the Musidora. She cruised up to lead two furlongs out and proceeded to draw clear without having to be ridden too hard.
This run ranks as equal to the smart performance of Kissed in the Salsabil Stakes on my ratings. The difference between the two fillies is that so far Kissed has yet to prove she acts on anything but soft ground whereas The Fugue clearly prefers a faster surface.
The Fugue is a more substantial filly than Kissed, being good-bodied and quite muscular. This suggests she'll take her racing better without needing as many breaks and that she'll have more pace and acceleration. However the mile and a half of the Oaks should swing things back in favour of Kissed
Trainer John Gosden says that if the ground ends up being too soft at Epsom he will divert The Fugue to the Prix de Diane. So, as I see it, the result of the Oaks now depends on the ground. If it's good or faster The Fugue should win. If it's good to soft or softer Kissed should score.
DERBY IS STILL WORTH A SHOT WITH NOBLE MISSION
NOBLE MISSION (38) just missed scoring his third successive win when beaten a neck in the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket. He was flat to the boards when the gallop picked up off the ordinary early pace. But he was picking up strongly in the last furlong.
It looks clear that Noble Mission wants a mile and a half. It's now looking even more likely that he is not a Group 1 horse. However he is still lightly raced and looks likely to improve for the longer distance at Epsom. So it looks logical to give3 him a shot at the Derby.
The winner THOUGHT WORTHY (38) led most of the way but started running a bit green and lost the lead soon after the pace picked up. He looked set to lose until rallying surprisingly strongly when getting more organised in the final furlong.
Thought Worthy is a brother to Lucarno and it looks logical to follow the same path to the St Leger as that one via the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. He clearly has a touch of class and a fair turn of foot though, so it will be tempting for his owners to let him take his chance at Epsom. I can see him reaching the first four if he does.
A MILE MAYBE BETTER FOR ALJAMAAHEER THAN SEVEN FURLONGS
ALJAMAAHEER (37) produced a serious turn of foot to win the Listed King Charles II Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket. He's a good moving sort that clearly needs a fast surface. I got the impression that the seven furlongs was the absolute minimum for him and that he only managed to win because the early pace was strong enough to bring his stamina into play. I reckon he'll be better suited to a mile, so I'm a little dubious about his prospects for the Jersey Stakes over seven furlongs.
BISHOP ROKO IS SMART
BISHOP ROKO (37) clocked a very decent time to win a ten furlong maiden at Newbury in which he sprinted six lengths clear in the last furlong. He's only medium sized, so he did well to recover quickly after bumping with a rival two furlongs out. The way that he ran away from his rivals thereafter suggests he's smart. Certainly he's Listed class at least on my ratings.
EXPENSE CLAIM SHOULD BE TOUGH TO BEAT AT ROYAL ASCOT
The London Gold Cup is invariably one of the hottest three year old handicaps of the season. But EXPENSE CLAIM (36) won it as though his rivals were moderate. This good-bodied, muscular, mature colt cruised away from his rivals in the final furlong while running fast and passed the post full of running. I can only award him a Listed class rating for the win but it looks clear he can run faster. He's not unbeaten in three starts over middle distances.
I would have thought that the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes was the logical target at Royal Ascot for Expense Claim. But the plan apparently is to keep him to handicap company for the valuable King George V handicap instead. He should have a favourite's chance of winning that race and would merit serious consideration if diverted to the Group 2 race.
GATEWOOD IS GROUP CLASS
GATEWOOD (39) clocked a time between Group 2 and Group 3 class when winning a strongly run 10.5f handicap at York. He stayed on well from the back to lead before the furlong pole and kept on strongly, ridden right out.
Gatewood is built and bred to be most effective over a mile and a half but showed here that he can produce smart form over a bit shorter if the pace is strong enough. The race may have been a sighter for the John Smiths Cup over the same course and distance in July. But whatever race he runs in over the next few months I'd be wary of opposing Gatewood. This run was seriously good for handicap company.
Runner up ROMEO MONTAGUE (38) is hard to read. My best guess is that he's better over ten furlongs than twelve.
IZZI TOP THE ONE TO BEAT IN NASSAU
IZZI TOP (38) reinforced the idea that she's probably the top older middle distance filly in Britain with a convincing win in the Group 2 Middleton Stakes at York's Dante meeting. She's run a bit faster in the past but the way she picked up in the closing stages to beat a good field suggests she had something to spare. When asked to go and win her race she showed much greater leg speed than the runner up and is clearly going to be tough to get past.
Izzi Top's big objective is to secure a Group 1 win, with her main targets being the Nassau Stakes and the Prix l'Opera. With so many brilliant older French fillies around this year the Nassau is surely going to be easier to win. Izzi Top is almost certainly going to start favourite for the Goodwood race and looks the one to beat.
Runner up SAJJHA (37) is a little one paced. For this reason her best form has been on ground that race times suggest was yielding or softer. She's a rangy, scopey sort, so I'd like to see her given another shot at a mile and a half. Over that distance I suspect the ground wouldn't matter too her. The plan of cutting her back to eight and a half furlongs for the Group 3 fillies race at Epsom's Derby meeting does not strike me as a good idea.
FURY MAY WELL STAY TEN FURLONGS
FURY (37) has run one good race after another this season. So it was no big surprise to see him win a Listed mile handicap at York. I liked the way he kept on strongly to get the better of a duel with the runner up following a searching early pace. Watching his performance I got the impression that he'd have no problem stepping up to a mile and a quarter.
Fury is pretty much weighted out of handicaps now. So the plan is to tackle a Group 3 even next, probably in France. My feeling is that he could well improve a bit when he's not asked to give chunks of weight to his rivals.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
SOLE POWER HAS REAL SHOT OF REPEATING NUNTHORPE WIN
BATED BREATH (44) showed that he's a world class sprinter with his win in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. Always moving smoothly he held off the late run of Sole Power to smash the course record.
The two key factors for Bated Breath appear to be the ground and the number of runners. He has a fast ground action and clearly is not at his best when the going is yielding or softer. In addition all his wins since his maiden success have been in fields of twelve or less. He has in fact won all five times he's run in fields of twelve or less on fast ground. Outside his maiden win he's lost all six times he's run in fields bigger than twelve.
Big fields are the norm at Royal Ascot. So if he were mine I'd prefer to aim him at the Golden Jubilee rather than the King's Stand Stakes in the hope that Black Caviar scares away enough rivals to ensure that only twelve or less line up for the former event.
SOLE POWER (44) is another brilliant sprinter, the best Ireland has produced in many years. He surged up to the winner late but couldn't quite get by. Toss out his runs at Tipperary and he'd won the previous four times he'd run five furlongs on a dead flat or downhill track on Polytrack or of turf where the word 'firm' appeared in the official going description. If he gets his ground he should have a real shot of repeating his 2010 win in the Nunthorpe. The only other race that's a logical target is the Abbaye which he was unlucky to lose last year.
DANDINO CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND IN HARDWICKE
DANDINO (40) looked sure to beat Sea Moon when surging forwards to head him inside the final furlong in a sprint finish for a hot Listed race at Goodwood. But Sea Moon had been allowed to set a moderate gallop which meant his jockey had been able to hold something in reserve for a rally which enabled him to get back up and win in a photo.
So far Dandino has yet to win after June. If this photo had gone his way he would have won seven of the eight times he's run a mile and a half or less in June or earlier. He's lost seven times out of seven in July or later.
I think Dandino will be better suited to the shorter homestraight in the Hardwicke Stakes more than the winner. The likely stronger pace should help him too. So I think he has a fine chance of scoring a second win at the Royal meeting.
The winner SEA MOON (40) is a long striding sort that clearly does nothing quickly. Having seen the way he ran here and in the St Leger I'm now inclined to think his best shot of a Group 1 win lies in the Irish St Leger and that he'll do best with a bit of cut in the ground to take the emphasis off finishing speed.
MICHAELANGELO ROLLS ON TOWARDS ST LEGER
It's rather odd to have an obvious St Leger candidate this early in the season. But the way MICHAELANGELO (38) won Goodwood's Cocked Hat Stakes suggests that trainer John Gosden has a serious chance of winning the final Classic for a fifth time.
Michaelangelo soon recovered from a slow start to trundle along in third behind front running Expense Claim. However he was flat to the boards when his rival suddenly accelerated into a big lead with half a mile left. Victory looked almost impossible at this point (he went out to 37-1 on Betfair).
The closing stages saw Expense Claim's stamina begin to ebb away just as Michaelangelo's stamina really started to kick in. And with the use of his long, raking stride he was able to secure a narrow and rather improbable victory.
Three of Gosden's four St Leger winners tackled the King Edward VII Stakes en route to Doncaster. Michaelangelo is booked to appear in the same race next time. The way that Expense Claim had him on the stretch for so long suggests that Michaelangelo will face a tough task at Ascot- because the homestraight there is much shorter, which gives him less time to unwind his finishing run. Still, it is just a stepping stone to the big objective, and the failure of Gosden's three Leger winners to win it suggests that merely running well will be enough to advertise his chances for the longer race in September.
Runner up EXPENSE CLAIM (38) looked home and hosed when he kicked four lengths clear with half a mile left. He was full of running at that point while his rivals were all under pressure. It looked like he might be about to spread-eagle them. Unfortunately he began to shorten his stride approaching the furlong pole and was caught close home.
The step up from ten to eleven furlongs did look to find Expense Claim out here. If that's right, and seeing how well he ran, than I'm left to wonder just how good he might be back over ten furlongs.
PERENNIAL (37) was outpaced just as badly as the winner when Expense Claim kicked on but stayed on strongly all the way to the line. He looked to be crying out for another furlong and might just be able to turn this form around with the winner in the King Edward VII Stakes.
GATHERING SHOULD IMPROVE
The early pace in the Height Of Fashion Stakes was so strong that it almost certainly helped the runners that were held up and hurt those that stuck close to the lead. This being so the performance of third placed GATHERING (35) is almost certainly a bit better than it looks.
Gathering chased the tearaway Estrella early on and was pulling despite the strong pace that one was setting. When Estrella kicked four lengths clear soon after entering the 5f homestraight Gathering's jockey, William Buick, decided to keep tabs on her. In doing so Gathering briefly pulled three lengths clear of the rest of the field.
Gathering looked likely to win for a long way. But by the time she got to the lead just before the furlong pole she and all the other runners were starting to get very tired and slowing down. Gathering was soon rolling around like a drunken and got headed. Buick saw that he couldn't get back to the two that had passed him and was clear of the rest, so he simply let his mount coast with minimal pressure in the last half furlong rather than risk getting her unbalanced further by riding her vigorously.
The winner COQUET (36) and runner up MINIDRESS (36) only ran fast enough to merit weak Listed class ratings from me. And they had the benefit of being held up off the lopsidedly fast early pace. To run them so close I have to believe that Gathering is a bit better. Certainly she's a bigger, stronger, more scopey filly than them.
Coquet's trainer Hughie Morrison says that she blew up through lack of fitness a furlong and a half out, and several observers say she looked big in the paddock for her seasonal debut. So perhaps she can move forward off this. But I think Gathering is the horse to be taking out of this race.
GABRIAL SHOULD IMPROVE OVER LONGER
GABRIAL (36) is a good-bodied, rangy, scopey colt that shows knee action and has the build for jumping. He looked rather out of place contesting a hot handicap on firm ground over only a mile at Haydock. Nonetheless he came through late with a strong run to power away from his rivals despite hanging all over the place in the closing stages.
It looks near certain from Gabrial's physique and stride pattern that he'd be best suited to galloping courses and a bit of cut in the ground. Ten furlongs plus would surely also be preferable to the mile he tackled here.
Gabrial is, I concede, by the sprinter Dark Angel. However the dam's side of Gabrial's pedigree is packed with stamina. His dam sire Mtoto is one of the strongest influences for 12 furlongs or more. His only sibling to race so far produced his best run over a mile and a half. His dam scored her three wins over ten and a half furlongs. Her seven siblings were all best over a mile and a quarter plus.
SKY LANTERN IS USEFUL
SKY LANTERN (34) clocked a time three seconds slower than the winner of a low grade handicap over the same distance later on the card. But that's simply because the field cantered through the first two furlongs of the maiden she won at Goodwood on her racecourse debut. She covered the last four furlongs 0.7 seconds faster than the handicappers. And once she'd gotten used to the increased pace and her rivals began to flag she started to come away from them rather quickly - opening up a gap of nearly four lengths in determined fashion.
It's hard to say just how good Sky Lantern is on the basis of this performance. But the way she sustained the sprint to power clear suggests to me that that the ballpark rating around Listed class I've assigned her is about right. Certainly she looks a viable candidate for the Albany Stakes where the likely stronger early pace should suit her. In the long run she looks a 7-8f horse judged by her physique, pedigree and the way she was initially a bit stretched when the sprint began.
BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE A SOLID NORFOLK STAKES CANDIDATE
BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE (35) clocked a fast time to win a five furlong juvenile maiden at Salisbury. He's a muscular, mature, lengthy sort that clearly has plenty of pace.
Bungleinthejungle swept through from his wide draw to lead after little more than a furlong and jumping the path that comes up just after didn't stop his progress. He continued running strongly all the way to the line. When the runner up came out of the pack to challenge him he rallied to score by a rather long looking neck (it looked more like half a length).
This run marks Bungleinthejungle out as a solid prospect for all the big five furlong two year old races. His jockey says he's a nervous sort and this is why he was taken down to the start early. Add this to his gung ho style of running and the fact he jumped that path and he clearly has a fair bit to learn. Most likely he needs a fast surface.
Runner up JUBILEE BRIG (34) was waited with before coming with a powerful challenge that would have taken him past most horses. My impression was that he'll do better over six furlongs.
SO YOU THINK STILL WORLD CLASS OVER TEN FURLONGS
SO YOU THINK (42) has now proven pretty conclusively that he doesn't show his best form on any surface other than turf and that he excels over nine to ten and a half furlongs. He has now won eleven of the thirteen times he's run this sort of distance on turf following his second success in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. His only two losses were a defeat by Rewilding in the Prince Of Wales' and a three quarter length beating by Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes. Both of those losses came in his two runs at Ascot. He's won all eleven times he's run 9-10.5f elsewhere on turf.
The Tattersalls Gold Cup is normally a weak Group 1, partly because it clashes with the longer established Prix d'Ispahan. It usually offers a good opportunity for a single top class performer to secure a top level success against outclassed opponents. That was certainly the case this year. So You Think only had to be pushed out to come six lengths clear of his nearest pursuer Famous Name.
So You Think does lack a little in acceleration, mostly because he's so darned big. This is what enabled both Rewilding and Cirrus Des Aigles to beat him. Then again it could well be that the steep uphill finish at Ascot is what found him out in those two losses.
Next time out So You Think will be facing his old rival Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. The obvious strategy to adopt there would be to throw in a brace of pacemakers in an attempt to take the sting out of the French horse's superior acceleration. If such tactics fail and cause So You Think to tire it will at least show that it's the testing nature of the track at Ascot that doesn't suit him.
Runner up FAMOUS NAME (38) moved well for a long way but simply couldn't go with the winner in the closing stages. His jockey looked over his shoulder, saw he had second place in safe keeping and didn't ride him hard in the last furlong.
Famous Name has now won the last thirteen times he has run below Group 2 class. He's earned borderline Group 1 ratings from me and others on many occasions. But he has now lost all thirteen times he's tackled Group 1 or Group 2 races.
Trainer Dermot Weld said before this race that he plans to travel abroad with Famous Name in a last ditch effort to finally gain the Group 1 win the horse needs to secure his value as a stallion. Towards this end he has him entered up in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis on July 29th, a race he ran second in last year. If all else fails there is always the Premio Roma right at the end of the season. The Italian race is usually a very weak Group 1. So it might be wise to give Famous Name a rather lengthy midsummer break to ensure he stays fresh for it if he fails to win in Germany.
POWER WINS A VERY WEAK IRISH 2000 GUINEAS
POWER (35) clocked a remarkably slow time to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. There's no question of the official time being wrong or the early pace being unsustainably fast. He simply ran a bit slower than the average Listed winner but still managed to win a Classic.
Actually, Power aside, no horse in the race had ever earned better than a Listed class speed rating from me. So maybe Power simply ran as fast as he had to in order to beat a freakishly weak field. He certainly picked up strongly and looked quite impressive. But I'm going to be cautious about assuming this run suggests he's still as good as he was last year.
With the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket also having been rather slow it's now looking like the top three year old colts are emulating the fillies in that the middle distance performers are superior to the milers. This does not bode well for the chances of Guineas winner Camelot in the Derby.
SAMITAR CAN WIN ANOTHER GROUP 1
SAMITAR (38) looked decidedly useful as she kicked away from her rivals to win the Irish Guineas. She'd always been moving well and picked up well to lose her only near pursuer Ishvana about a furlong from the finish.
If the photo had gone her way in last year's Fillies' Mile Samitar would now3 have won all three times she's run seven furlongs or more when the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. She was purchased to run in America before this season and will surely do very well over there. Her turn of foot and preference for firm ground will make her tough to beat in the weak Grade 1 races for fillies that are so common in America. Meanwhile there's every chance she can follow up this success in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Runner up ISHVANA (37) is a bigger, scopier filly than the winner. She couldn't go with Samitar but I liked the way she rallied and pulled clear of the rest in her efforts to do so. I recognise that her pedigree and past form suggest the mile of this race will be her limit, but I can see her getting ten furlongs off this run.
Like the winner Ishvana seems best on fast ground. She got hampered in one race but has won two of the other four times she's run on Polytrack or good ground. One of her losses was a second place finish to subsequent Group 2 winner Requinto over an inadequate five furlongs. The other was this smart run.
BLUE CORNER A USEFUL 3YO
BLUE CORNER (37) came right away from his rivals in the closing stages to win a ten furlong maiden in good style on the Irish 1000 Guineas card at the Curragh. The time he clocked was rather fast too. In fact if you time the race from the starting stalls parked on the inside of the track eight or ten strides past the start you'll find he got home from there a fifth of a second faster than So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But this was because they didn't go very fast early in the Group 1 race. So You Think quickened up to cover the last three furlongs 1.45 seconds faster than they went in Blue Corner's race. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests a Listed class performance by Blue Corner.
The way Blue Corner powered away from his rivals in the closing stages makes it seem that he should have no trouble staying a mile and a half. What makes me cautious about this idea is that the clock shows the field were all tiring pretty badly in the closing stages. In addition his pedigree does suggest serious doubts about longer trips than the ten furlongs he tackled here.
Only time will answer the stamina question with Blue Corner. Certainly he should be capable of winning at least a Listed race on this showing.
PACE MAKES THE RACE FOR SPEAKING OF WHICH
The Gallinule Stakes was a strange contest this year thanks to an extraordinary early move by British raider CRIUS (26).
I noted after his second in the Craven Stakes that he'd won all three times he'd run seven furlongs and lost all three times he'd tried a mile. Seeing that his stamina appeared to give out in the closing stages of the Craven it was surprising to see him stepped up to ten furlongs for the Gallinule Stakes. It was even more surprising to see him allowed to sprint through the first three furlongs in a time two seconds faster than in the very strongly run maiden later on the card.
The terrific burst of early speed Crius put in over the first three furlongs saw him blast eight lengths clear by the time they reached the seven furlong marker. His jockey allowed him to slow down from there, but the damage had been done, the first three furlongs being mostly uphill. By the time they reached the quarter mile pole Crius was done. He started to fall back rapidly thereafter.
The mad early burst by Crius hurt the time of the race and turned it into a greater test of stamina than most ten furlong contests. This clearly suited SPEAKING OF WHICH (37) who proceeded to run away from his rivals in the closing stages to score by nine lengths.
Speaking Of Which has now won both times he's run on the fast ground that trainer Dermot Weld says he favours. I doubt that he's good enough to win the Irish Derby, but he deserves a crack at the race.
Third placed ATHENS (29) may well have paid the price for being the only one to chase Crius and also for being the first to be asked to catch him. He almost certainly prefers softer ground as well, so I'm happy to forgive him this loss.
HUNT CUP THE RIGHT TARGET FOR GLOR NA MARA
With just one win from nineteen lifetime starts and an official rating that had dropped 24 pounds in little more than a year, GLOR NA MARA (39) was not an obvious choice for a valuable one mile handicap. But he came off a pace slightly faster than Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas for the first five furlongs to clock a time 0.74 of a second faster for the full distance.
Glor Na Mara had a wall of horses in front of him two furlongs out and had to be swung out around them all to start his run down the wide outside. He always looked likely to get there once in the clear, winning a good duel with the smart runner up to score by a neck.
Trainer Jim Bolger suggested that the Ballycorus Stakes could be the next target for Glor Na Mara. I think that would be a mistake as it would mean cutting him back to a sprint distance. The fact is Glor Na Mara has run twice over a mile and won both times. His sire was a top miler in America. His unraced dam was bred to be a miler, and her only other foal has produced his best form over a mile. Glor Na Mara's fine record over a mile coupled with his failure to win in seventeen previous sprint starts and one 10f outing suggests awfully strongly that he is indeed a miler.
It's a shame that the weights haven't already come out for the Royal Hunt Cup as Glor Na Mara would have been thrown in off the official mark he ran off here. But I can't see how they can put him up much for such a narrow win, so the big Royal Ascot handicap is surely the race he should go for.
Runner up DANDY BOY (39) has put up smart Group class performances like this several times before when fresh and racing on a fast surface. This run was preceded by a three month break so it's quite possible that Dandy Boy will hold his form for his next outing. He's entered in the Wokingham Stakes and would be an interesting candidate there as the race often falls to a seven furlong performer. He's also in the Ballycorus Stakes. Whatever happens to him in either of those races watch out for him to bounce back when he's rested thereafter and brought back on fast ground.
Third placed BANNA BOIRCHE (37) would have won ten of the eleven times he's run seven furlongs plus on Dundalk's Polytrack if two photos had gone his way. He's failed to score in 25 other starts but showed he can produce his best on fast turf here.
Fourth placed BROWN BUTTERFLY (36) put up a performance that would win many Listed races for fillies. She has won both times she's run in single figure fields but lost all her other fifteen starts. If she were mine I'd be strongly inclined to step her up to Listed company where she'd be likely to meet smaller fields, especially if she ran in Britain or France.
GOLDEN LILAC SHOWS THAT AMAZING ACCELERATION AGAIN
Last year in the Prix de la Grotte GOLDEN LILAC (40) ran the penultimate furlong in ten seconds flat according to the official sectional times. That's the fastest furlong clocked by any horse as far as I know.
It is therefore not too surprising that Golden Lilac was able to narrowly get the better of Cirrus Des Aigles in a wild sprint finish to the Prix d'Ispahan. Her astonishing turn of foot was enough to see her finish in front of the European middle distance champion over a trip a little bit on the short side for him.
Golden Lilac pulled hard in the early stages, as she often has in the past. But she was eventually wrestled back into third before delivering her decisive late burst to win a race where the final quarter mile was about as fast as you'll ever see (around 21.6 seconds by my estimates - the official sectional times not being displayed on the video I watched).
This win means that there are now four older fillies in France that are capable of beating males over middle distances. Namely Giofra, Solemia, Galikova and Golden Lilac. This quartet are surely going to make it very hard for any 3YO filly to win a Group 1 WFA race over ten to twelve furlongs this year.
Golden Lilac has such pace and pulls so hard I have trouble believing that she'll stay the mile and a half of the Vermeille and the Arc. The race I'd be shooting for with her is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Her turn of foot would make her pretty much unstoppable in that race.
CIRRUS DES AIGLES (40) got beat a neck by the brilliant Goldikova in the Prix d'Ispahan last year. And it's tempting to say the nine and a quarter furlongs of the race is a bit too short for him. But if the early pace had been stronger or if he'd kicked for home earlier he might well have won. He remains a very hard horse to beat at pretty much any distance as long as he's had that all important run in the previous month.
I find it hard to see anything getting by Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prince Of Wales or the King George and eagerly look forward to his end of season face off against Frankel in the Champion Stakes. I still think he'll prevail in that race as the relatively short homestraight and his ability to quicken rounding a home turn should give him a major tactical edge over the long striding Frankel.
PLANTEUR (39) got going late, as he had when third in the Dubai World Cup. His best run on my ratings was his close second to Behkabad over a mile and a half in the Prix Niel. The uphill finish could pull him into the race in the Prince Of Wales, especially if there are a couple of Coolmore pacemakers for So You Think. But, on balance, I think Planteur will need to go back up to a mile and a half to score another Group 1 win.
NO RISK AT ALL (39) ran another smart race to finish a close fourth. His record in fields of eight or less such as this is excellent.
Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Niel winner RELIABLE MAN (37) couldn't make much headway late due to the wild sprint finish. He surely needs to go back up in distance, probably all the way to a mile and a half.
SAGAWARA MAY IMPROVE OVER LONGER
SAGAWARA (37) looked a little uncomfortable trying to cope with the sprint finish for the Prix Saint-Alary. But after switching her legs she got to the front and was always going to hang on from there.
The Prix Saint-Alary is rarely as good a race as the Prix de Diane, and I Sagawara wouldn't be up to beating Beauty Parlour in that contest if my speed ratings are any guide. Her best shot of another Group 1 win probably lies in the Irish Oaks where the longer distance might improve her.
I say this because Sagawara is quite tall and looks built for a mile and a half. Indeed two of her three winning siblings scored over that far (one won over 1m 7f).
AIZAVOSKI ALWAYS A BIG THREAT AROUND LITTLE TRACKS
AIZAVOSKI (39) is a strong, good-bodied, rangy, long striding sort that logically should be suited by big galloping tracks. But, weirdly, he has lost all nine times he's run around courses that are 12 furlongs or more in circumference. He's won eight from eleven around smaller ovals.
In his latest win in the Grand Prix de Bordeaux, Aizavoski came through to take the lead halfway up Bordeaux Le-Bouscat's two furlong homestraight and steadily edged clear to win by a length and a half without much fuss.
Aizavoski is clearly capable of winning races a good deal better than the Listed class races he's been mopping up in the French provinces. Unfortunately the only major French course less than a mile and a half around is Saint-Cloud, which is just half a furlong shy of that.
If he were mine I'd be entering up Aizavoski for all the big German middle distance races since all German tracks are less than 12 furlongs in circumference. He might be able to sneak a Group 1 win over there. If he stays at home he's going to be running on unsuitable tracks any time he tackles Group company.
BATED BREATH (44) showed that he's a world class sprinter with his win in the Temple Stakes at Haydock. Always moving smoothly he held off the late run of Sole Power to smash the course record.
The two key factors for Bated Breath appear to be the ground and the number of runners. He has a fast ground action and clearly is not at his best when the going is yielding or softer. In addition all his wins since his maiden success have been in fields of twelve or less. He has in fact won all five times he's run in fields of twelve or less on fast ground. Outside his maiden win he's lost all six times he's run in fields bigger than twelve.
Big fields are the norm at Royal Ascot. So if he were mine I'd prefer to aim him at the Golden Jubilee rather than the King's Stand Stakes in the hope that Black Caviar scares away enough rivals to ensure that only twelve or less line up for the former event.
SOLE POWER (44) is another brilliant sprinter, the best Ireland has produced in many years. He surged up to the winner late but couldn't quite get by. Toss out his runs at Tipperary and he'd won the previous four times he'd run five furlongs on a dead flat or downhill track on Polytrack or of turf where the word 'firm' appeared in the official going description. If he gets his ground he should have a real shot of repeating his 2010 win in the Nunthorpe. The only other race that's a logical target is the Abbaye which he was unlucky to lose last year.
DANDINO CAN TURN THIS FORM AROUND IN HARDWICKE
DANDINO (40) looked sure to beat Sea Moon when surging forwards to head him inside the final furlong in a sprint finish for a hot Listed race at Goodwood. But Sea Moon had been allowed to set a moderate gallop which meant his jockey had been able to hold something in reserve for a rally which enabled him to get back up and win in a photo.
So far Dandino has yet to win after June. If this photo had gone his way he would have won seven of the eight times he's run a mile and a half or less in June or earlier. He's lost seven times out of seven in July or later.
I think Dandino will be better suited to the shorter homestraight in the Hardwicke Stakes more than the winner. The likely stronger pace should help him too. So I think he has a fine chance of scoring a second win at the Royal meeting.
The winner SEA MOON (40) is a long striding sort that clearly does nothing quickly. Having seen the way he ran here and in the St Leger I'm now inclined to think his best shot of a Group 1 win lies in the Irish St Leger and that he'll do best with a bit of cut in the ground to take the emphasis off finishing speed.
MICHAELANGELO ROLLS ON TOWARDS ST LEGER
It's rather odd to have an obvious St Leger candidate this early in the season. But the way MICHAELANGELO (38) won Goodwood's Cocked Hat Stakes suggests that trainer John Gosden has a serious chance of winning the final Classic for a fifth time.
Michaelangelo soon recovered from a slow start to trundle along in third behind front running Expense Claim. However he was flat to the boards when his rival suddenly accelerated into a big lead with half a mile left. Victory looked almost impossible at this point (he went out to 37-1 on Betfair).
The closing stages saw Expense Claim's stamina begin to ebb away just as Michaelangelo's stamina really started to kick in. And with the use of his long, raking stride he was able to secure a narrow and rather improbable victory.
Three of Gosden's four St Leger winners tackled the King Edward VII Stakes en route to Doncaster. Michaelangelo is booked to appear in the same race next time. The way that Expense Claim had him on the stretch for so long suggests that Michaelangelo will face a tough task at Ascot- because the homestraight there is much shorter, which gives him less time to unwind his finishing run. Still, it is just a stepping stone to the big objective, and the failure of Gosden's three Leger winners to win it suggests that merely running well will be enough to advertise his chances for the longer race in September.
Runner up EXPENSE CLAIM (38) looked home and hosed when he kicked four lengths clear with half a mile left. He was full of running at that point while his rivals were all under pressure. It looked like he might be about to spread-eagle them. Unfortunately he began to shorten his stride approaching the furlong pole and was caught close home.
The step up from ten to eleven furlongs did look to find Expense Claim out here. If that's right, and seeing how well he ran, than I'm left to wonder just how good he might be back over ten furlongs.
PERENNIAL (37) was outpaced just as badly as the winner when Expense Claim kicked on but stayed on strongly all the way to the line. He looked to be crying out for another furlong and might just be able to turn this form around with the winner in the King Edward VII Stakes.
GATHERING SHOULD IMPROVE
The early pace in the Height Of Fashion Stakes was so strong that it almost certainly helped the runners that were held up and hurt those that stuck close to the lead. This being so the performance of third placed GATHERING (35) is almost certainly a bit better than it looks.
Gathering chased the tearaway Estrella early on and was pulling despite the strong pace that one was setting. When Estrella kicked four lengths clear soon after entering the 5f homestraight Gathering's jockey, William Buick, decided to keep tabs on her. In doing so Gathering briefly pulled three lengths clear of the rest of the field.
Gathering looked likely to win for a long way. But by the time she got to the lead just before the furlong pole she and all the other runners were starting to get very tired and slowing down. Gathering was soon rolling around like a drunken and got headed. Buick saw that he couldn't get back to the two that had passed him and was clear of the rest, so he simply let his mount coast with minimal pressure in the last half furlong rather than risk getting her unbalanced further by riding her vigorously.
The winner COQUET (36) and runner up MINIDRESS (36) only ran fast enough to merit weak Listed class ratings from me. And they had the benefit of being held up off the lopsidedly fast early pace. To run them so close I have to believe that Gathering is a bit better. Certainly she's a bigger, stronger, more scopey filly than them.
Coquet's trainer Hughie Morrison says that she blew up through lack of fitness a furlong and a half out, and several observers say she looked big in the paddock for her seasonal debut. So perhaps she can move forward off this. But I think Gathering is the horse to be taking out of this race.
GABRIAL SHOULD IMPROVE OVER LONGER
GABRIAL (36) is a good-bodied, rangy, scopey colt that shows knee action and has the build for jumping. He looked rather out of place contesting a hot handicap on firm ground over only a mile at Haydock. Nonetheless he came through late with a strong run to power away from his rivals despite hanging all over the place in the closing stages.
It looks near certain from Gabrial's physique and stride pattern that he'd be best suited to galloping courses and a bit of cut in the ground. Ten furlongs plus would surely also be preferable to the mile he tackled here.
Gabrial is, I concede, by the sprinter Dark Angel. However the dam's side of Gabrial's pedigree is packed with stamina. His dam sire Mtoto is one of the strongest influences for 12 furlongs or more. His only sibling to race so far produced his best run over a mile and a half. His dam scored her three wins over ten and a half furlongs. Her seven siblings were all best over a mile and a quarter plus.
SKY LANTERN IS USEFUL
SKY LANTERN (34) clocked a time three seconds slower than the winner of a low grade handicap over the same distance later on the card. But that's simply because the field cantered through the first two furlongs of the maiden she won at Goodwood on her racecourse debut. She covered the last four furlongs 0.7 seconds faster than the handicappers. And once she'd gotten used to the increased pace and her rivals began to flag she started to come away from them rather quickly - opening up a gap of nearly four lengths in determined fashion.
It's hard to say just how good Sky Lantern is on the basis of this performance. But the way she sustained the sprint to power clear suggests to me that that the ballpark rating around Listed class I've assigned her is about right. Certainly she looks a viable candidate for the Albany Stakes where the likely stronger early pace should suit her. In the long run she looks a 7-8f horse judged by her physique, pedigree and the way she was initially a bit stretched when the sprint began.
BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE A SOLID NORFOLK STAKES CANDIDATE
BUNGLEINTHEJUNGLE (35) clocked a fast time to win a five furlong juvenile maiden at Salisbury. He's a muscular, mature, lengthy sort that clearly has plenty of pace.
Bungleinthejungle swept through from his wide draw to lead after little more than a furlong and jumping the path that comes up just after didn't stop his progress. He continued running strongly all the way to the line. When the runner up came out of the pack to challenge him he rallied to score by a rather long looking neck (it looked more like half a length).
This run marks Bungleinthejungle out as a solid prospect for all the big five furlong two year old races. His jockey says he's a nervous sort and this is why he was taken down to the start early. Add this to his gung ho style of running and the fact he jumped that path and he clearly has a fair bit to learn. Most likely he needs a fast surface.
Runner up JUBILEE BRIG (34) was waited with before coming with a powerful challenge that would have taken him past most horses. My impression was that he'll do better over six furlongs.
SO YOU THINK STILL WORLD CLASS OVER TEN FURLONGS
SO YOU THINK (42) has now proven pretty conclusively that he doesn't show his best form on any surface other than turf and that he excels over nine to ten and a half furlongs. He has now won eleven of the thirteen times he's run this sort of distance on turf following his second success in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. His only two losses were a defeat by Rewilding in the Prince Of Wales' and a three quarter length beating by Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes. Both of those losses came in his two runs at Ascot. He's won all eleven times he's run 9-10.5f elsewhere on turf.
The Tattersalls Gold Cup is normally a weak Group 1, partly because it clashes with the longer established Prix d'Ispahan. It usually offers a good opportunity for a single top class performer to secure a top level success against outclassed opponents. That was certainly the case this year. So You Think only had to be pushed out to come six lengths clear of his nearest pursuer Famous Name.
So You Think does lack a little in acceleration, mostly because he's so darned big. This is what enabled both Rewilding and Cirrus Des Aigles to beat him. Then again it could well be that the steep uphill finish at Ascot is what found him out in those two losses.
Next time out So You Think will be facing his old rival Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prince Of Wales' Stakes. The obvious strategy to adopt there would be to throw in a brace of pacemakers in an attempt to take the sting out of the French horse's superior acceleration. If such tactics fail and cause So You Think to tire it will at least show that it's the testing nature of the track at Ascot that doesn't suit him.
Runner up FAMOUS NAME (38) moved well for a long way but simply couldn't go with the winner in the closing stages. His jockey looked over his shoulder, saw he had second place in safe keeping and didn't ride him hard in the last furlong.
Famous Name has now won the last thirteen times he has run below Group 2 class. He's earned borderline Group 1 ratings from me and others on many occasions. But he has now lost all thirteen times he's tackled Group 1 or Group 2 races.
Trainer Dermot Weld said before this race that he plans to travel abroad with Famous Name in a last ditch effort to finally gain the Group 1 win the horse needs to secure his value as a stallion. Towards this end he has him entered up in the Grosser Dallmayr Preis on July 29th, a race he ran second in last year. If all else fails there is always the Premio Roma right at the end of the season. The Italian race is usually a very weak Group 1. So it might be wise to give Famous Name a rather lengthy midsummer break to ensure he stays fresh for it if he fails to win in Germany.
POWER WINS A VERY WEAK IRISH 2000 GUINEAS
POWER (35) clocked a remarkably slow time to win the Irish 2000 Guineas. There's no question of the official time being wrong or the early pace being unsustainably fast. He simply ran a bit slower than the average Listed winner but still managed to win a Classic.
Actually, Power aside, no horse in the race had ever earned better than a Listed class speed rating from me. So maybe Power simply ran as fast as he had to in order to beat a freakishly weak field. He certainly picked up strongly and looked quite impressive. But I'm going to be cautious about assuming this run suggests he's still as good as he was last year.
With the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket also having been rather slow it's now looking like the top three year old colts are emulating the fillies in that the middle distance performers are superior to the milers. This does not bode well for the chances of Guineas winner Camelot in the Derby.
SAMITAR CAN WIN ANOTHER GROUP 1
SAMITAR (38) looked decidedly useful as she kicked away from her rivals to win the Irish Guineas. She'd always been moving well and picked up well to lose her only near pursuer Ishvana about a furlong from the finish.
If the photo had gone her way in last year's Fillies' Mile Samitar would now3 have won all three times she's run seven furlongs or more when the word 'firm' has appeared in the official going description. She was purchased to run in America before this season and will surely do very well over there. Her turn of foot and preference for firm ground will make her tough to beat in the weak Grade 1 races for fillies that are so common in America. Meanwhile there's every chance she can follow up this success in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Runner up ISHVANA (37) is a bigger, scopier filly than the winner. She couldn't go with Samitar but I liked the way she rallied and pulled clear of the rest in her efforts to do so. I recognise that her pedigree and past form suggest the mile of this race will be her limit, but I can see her getting ten furlongs off this run.
Like the winner Ishvana seems best on fast ground. She got hampered in one race but has won two of the other four times she's run on Polytrack or good ground. One of her losses was a second place finish to subsequent Group 2 winner Requinto over an inadequate five furlongs. The other was this smart run.
BLUE CORNER A USEFUL 3YO
BLUE CORNER (37) came right away from his rivals in the closing stages to win a ten furlong maiden in good style on the Irish 1000 Guineas card at the Curragh. The time he clocked was rather fast too. In fact if you time the race from the starting stalls parked on the inside of the track eight or ten strides past the start you'll find he got home from there a fifth of a second faster than So You Think in the Tattersalls Gold Cup. But this was because they didn't go very fast early in the Group 1 race. So You Think quickened up to cover the last three furlongs 1.45 seconds faster than they went in Blue Corner's race. When I adjust my rating to take account of this it suggests a Listed class performance by Blue Corner.
The way Blue Corner powered away from his rivals in the closing stages makes it seem that he should have no trouble staying a mile and a half. What makes me cautious about this idea is that the clock shows the field were all tiring pretty badly in the closing stages. In addition his pedigree does suggest serious doubts about longer trips than the ten furlongs he tackled here.
Only time will answer the stamina question with Blue Corner. Certainly he should be capable of winning at least a Listed race on this showing.
PACE MAKES THE RACE FOR SPEAKING OF WHICH
The Gallinule Stakes was a strange contest this year thanks to an extraordinary early move by British raider CRIUS (26).
I noted after his second in the Craven Stakes that he'd won all three times he'd run seven furlongs and lost all three times he'd tried a mile. Seeing that his stamina appeared to give out in the closing stages of the Craven it was surprising to see him stepped up to ten furlongs for the Gallinule Stakes. It was even more surprising to see him allowed to sprint through the first three furlongs in a time two seconds faster than in the very strongly run maiden later on the card.
The terrific burst of early speed Crius put in over the first three furlongs saw him blast eight lengths clear by the time they reached the seven furlong marker. His jockey allowed him to slow down from there, but the damage had been done, the first three furlongs being mostly uphill. By the time they reached the quarter mile pole Crius was done. He started to fall back rapidly thereafter.
The mad early burst by Crius hurt the time of the race and turned it into a greater test of stamina than most ten furlong contests. This clearly suited SPEAKING OF WHICH (37) who proceeded to run away from his rivals in the closing stages to score by nine lengths.
Speaking Of Which has now won both times he's run on the fast ground that trainer Dermot Weld says he favours. I doubt that he's good enough to win the Irish Derby, but he deserves a crack at the race.
Third placed ATHENS (29) may well have paid the price for being the only one to chase Crius and also for being the first to be asked to catch him. He almost certainly prefers softer ground as well, so I'm happy to forgive him this loss.
HUNT CUP THE RIGHT TARGET FOR GLOR NA MARA
With just one win from nineteen lifetime starts and an official rating that had dropped 24 pounds in little more than a year, GLOR NA MARA (39) was not an obvious choice for a valuable one mile handicap. But he came off a pace slightly faster than Power in the Irish 2000 Guineas for the first five furlongs to clock a time 0.74 of a second faster for the full distance.
Glor Na Mara had a wall of horses in front of him two furlongs out and had to be swung out around them all to start his run down the wide outside. He always looked likely to get there once in the clear, winning a good duel with the smart runner up to score by a neck.
Trainer Jim Bolger suggested that the Ballycorus Stakes could be the next target for Glor Na Mara. I think that would be a mistake as it would mean cutting him back to a sprint distance. The fact is Glor Na Mara has run twice over a mile and won both times. His sire was a top miler in America. His unraced dam was bred to be a miler, and her only other foal has produced his best form over a mile. Glor Na Mara's fine record over a mile coupled with his failure to win in seventeen previous sprint starts and one 10f outing suggests awfully strongly that he is indeed a miler.
It's a shame that the weights haven't already come out for the Royal Hunt Cup as Glor Na Mara would have been thrown in off the official mark he ran off here. But I can't see how they can put him up much for such a narrow win, so the big Royal Ascot handicap is surely the race he should go for.
Runner up DANDY BOY (39) has put up smart Group class performances like this several times before when fresh and racing on a fast surface. This run was preceded by a three month break so it's quite possible that Dandy Boy will hold his form for his next outing. He's entered in the Wokingham Stakes and would be an interesting candidate there as the race often falls to a seven furlong performer. He's also in the Ballycorus Stakes. Whatever happens to him in either of those races watch out for him to bounce back when he's rested thereafter and brought back on fast ground.
Third placed BANNA BOIRCHE (37) would have won ten of the eleven times he's run seven furlongs plus on Dundalk's Polytrack if two photos had gone his way. He's failed to score in 25 other starts but showed he can produce his best on fast turf here.
Fourth placed BROWN BUTTERFLY (36) put up a performance that would win many Listed races for fillies. She has won both times she's run in single figure fields but lost all her other fifteen starts. If she were mine I'd be strongly inclined to step her up to Listed company where she'd be likely to meet smaller fields, especially if she ran in Britain or France.
GOLDEN LILAC SHOWS THAT AMAZING ACCELERATION AGAIN
Last year in the Prix de la Grotte GOLDEN LILAC (40) ran the penultimate furlong in ten seconds flat according to the official sectional times. That's the fastest furlong clocked by any horse as far as I know.
It is therefore not too surprising that Golden Lilac was able to narrowly get the better of Cirrus Des Aigles in a wild sprint finish to the Prix d'Ispahan. Her astonishing turn of foot was enough to see her finish in front of the European middle distance champion over a trip a little bit on the short side for him.
Golden Lilac pulled hard in the early stages, as she often has in the past. But she was eventually wrestled back into third before delivering her decisive late burst to win a race where the final quarter mile was about as fast as you'll ever see (around 21.6 seconds by my estimates - the official sectional times not being displayed on the video I watched).
This win means that there are now four older fillies in France that are capable of beating males over middle distances. Namely Giofra, Solemia, Galikova and Golden Lilac. This quartet are surely going to make it very hard for any 3YO filly to win a Group 1 WFA race over ten to twelve furlongs this year.
Golden Lilac has such pace and pulls so hard I have trouble believing that she'll stay the mile and a half of the Vermeille and the Arc. The race I'd be shooting for with her is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Her turn of foot would make her pretty much unstoppable in that race.
CIRRUS DES AIGLES (40) got beat a neck by the brilliant Goldikova in the Prix d'Ispahan last year. And it's tempting to say the nine and a quarter furlongs of the race is a bit too short for him. But if the early pace had been stronger or if he'd kicked for home earlier he might well have won. He remains a very hard horse to beat at pretty much any distance as long as he's had that all important run in the previous month.
I find it hard to see anything getting by Cirrus Des Aigles in the Prince Of Wales or the King George and eagerly look forward to his end of season face off against Frankel in the Champion Stakes. I still think he'll prevail in that race as the relatively short homestraight and his ability to quicken rounding a home turn should give him a major tactical edge over the long striding Frankel.
PLANTEUR (39) got going late, as he had when third in the Dubai World Cup. His best run on my ratings was his close second to Behkabad over a mile and a half in the Prix Niel. The uphill finish could pull him into the race in the Prince Of Wales, especially if there are a couple of Coolmore pacemakers for So You Think. But, on balance, I think Planteur will need to go back up to a mile and a half to score another Group 1 win.
NO RISK AT ALL (39) ran another smart race to finish a close fourth. His record in fields of eight or less such as this is excellent.
Prix du Jockey Club and Prix Niel winner RELIABLE MAN (37) couldn't make much headway late due to the wild sprint finish. He surely needs to go back up in distance, probably all the way to a mile and a half.
SAGAWARA MAY IMPROVE OVER LONGER
SAGAWARA (37) looked a little uncomfortable trying to cope with the sprint finish for the Prix Saint-Alary. But after switching her legs she got to the front and was always going to hang on from there.
The Prix Saint-Alary is rarely as good a race as the Prix de Diane, and I Sagawara wouldn't be up to beating Beauty Parlour in that contest if my speed ratings are any guide. Her best shot of another Group 1 win probably lies in the Irish Oaks where the longer distance might improve her.
I say this because Sagawara is quite tall and looks built for a mile and a half. Indeed two of her three winning siblings scored over that far (one won over 1m 7f).
AIZAVOSKI ALWAYS A BIG THREAT AROUND LITTLE TRACKS
AIZAVOSKI (39) is a strong, good-bodied, rangy, long striding sort that logically should be suited by big galloping tracks. But, weirdly, he has lost all nine times he's run around courses that are 12 furlongs or more in circumference. He's won eight from eleven around smaller ovals.
In his latest win in the Grand Prix de Bordeaux, Aizavoski came through to take the lead halfway up Bordeaux Le-Bouscat's two furlong homestraight and steadily edged clear to win by a length and a half without much fuss.
Aizavoski is clearly capable of winning races a good deal better than the Listed class races he's been mopping up in the French provinces. Unfortunately the only major French course less than a mile and a half around is Saint-Cloud, which is just half a furlong shy of that.
If he were mine I'd be entering up Aizavoski for all the big German middle distance races since all German tracks are less than 12 furlongs in circumference. He might be able to sneak a Group 1 win over there. If he stays at home he's going to be running on unsuitable tracks any time he tackles Group company.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
CAMELOT AN ABOVE AVERAGE DERBY WINNER
A lot of recent Derby winners have not been that smart. Nine of the last eighteen never won another Group race after their success at Epsom. However I don't think that is going to be the case with CAMELOT (43). He's a couple of lengths a mile better than the average Derby winner according to my ratings.
It was impressive how Camelot came from well off the strong pace set by stablemate Astrology to pick off the leaders quickly despite hanging, take the lead a furlong out and then surge five lengths by the time he reached the line.
With his sire Montjeu dying recently there is clearly a lot of pressure on Coolmore to find a replacement before the next breeding season. Camelot would be ideal as he's already won a big 2YO race and two Classics. The trick will be to use the next four months to build Camelot's reputation to a high enough level. That means hopefully keeping him unbeaten.
In a normal season this would not be a big problem. Camelot is almost certainly capable of beating any three year old over ten furlongs or more. In addition the weight for age allowance would usually give him a big edge over older horses in all-age races like the Arc.
The trouble is that this year, smart as he is, Camelot is up against a freakishly strong group of older horses that any three year old of the last quarter century would have trouble beating.
Foremost amongst these is of course the mighty Frankel. I can't imagine Camelot being able to beat Cecil's star and he surely won't be asked to face him.
Another older horse that Camelot ought to sidestep in my opinion is last season's highest rated middle distance performer Cirrus Des Aigles. The French horse looks likely to win a whole bunch of the top WFA races. His tenacity and turn of foot could easily make Camelot look bad.
Finally I would be wary of tackling the Arc with Camelot. Aidan O'Brien's Classic colts are invariably over the top by the time that race is run. Proof of this is that he's had 33 three year old runners in British, French and Irish Group 1's in October or later over the last sixteen years and they've all lost. The only two to reach the first three were Eagle Mountain who was rested for ten weeks before running second in the Champion Stakes and High Chaparral who was off to three months before running third in the Arc.
In the circumstances there's an awful lot to like about the plan mooted by Camelot's connections of shooting for the St Leger. This would avoid the problems presented by the older generation while at the same time giving him a huge chance of becoming the first Triple Crown winner in over fourty years. If he did that it would probably earn bigger headlines than anything Frankel, Cirrus des Aigles or any other horse does this season.
Runner up MAIN SEQUENCE (40) got rather warm before the race but still produced a lifetime best effort to come with a strong late run and snatch second on the line. My ratings say he's just a good Group 2 horse, so he'll probably struggle to win again if he's kept to top level races.
The one Group 1 race I could just about see Main Sequence winning is the Grand Prix de Paris. The absence of Camelot from that race would clearly enhance Main Sequence's chances, so it seems logical to make it his immediate target.
Incidentally I have a slight quibble over the naming of Main Sequence. He is by Aldeberan, a sire clearly named for the binary star system 65.1 million light years away in the Constellation Taurus.
The thing is neither Aldeberan A or B is a main sequence star. Aldeberan A is an orange red giant and Aldeberan B s a red dwarf. So although you could say that Main Sequence established himself as a star with his Derby second he's not really bred to be a Main Sequence star.
Third placed ASTROLOGY (40) set a stronger pace than previous Memphis Tennessee, At First Sight and Golden Sword had for Coolmore in the previous three Derbies. And he looked to pay the price for doing so. He looked likely to win and went odds on in running when kicking clear two furlongs out. But the effect of his earlier exertions told and he got caught.
My feeling is that Astrology would have been a clear second if he'd been able to go a bit slower early. I therefore think he's going to prove capable of winning a Group 1 of his own. His best options are clearly the Grand Prix de Paris or, if Camelot skips the race, the Irish Derby.
BONFIRE (34) moved well for a long way and looked a threat turning in. However he tired in the closing stages. It could be he regressed due to the effects of his hard race in the Dante or that he simply didn't stay.
No doubt Bonfire will be rested following this run. I imagine he'll be brought back for the Eclipse or, more likely, the Juddmonte International.
ASCOT NOT A GREAT OPTION FOR ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (43) showed a seriously good turn of foot to quicken away from his rivals in the Coronation Cup. The performance showed once again that he is a world class performer.
Following as it did, less than a month after his flop at the Curragh, this run lends more weight to the idea that St Nicholas Abbey is best on left-handed tracks.
As I've mentioned before St Nicholas Abbey has won around the right handed dog leg at the Curragh, but he's lost all five times he's been asked to tackle a full right hand turn - at Ascot, Longchamp and the Curragh. If the photo had gone his way in the Sheema Classic he would have won all five times he's run on left handed tracks.
In the circumstances I don't like the two targets nominated by trainer Aidan O'Brien after this race, namely the Prince Of Wales or the King George. Both of those races are at right handed Ascot.
If he were mine I'd be shifting St Nicholas Abbey's focus to America where all the tracks are left handed. He would be hot favourite for the United Nations, the Man O'War, the Sword Dancer, the Arlington Million or the Turf Classic. By winning one or more of those races in addition to a second Breeders' Cup Turf he would be pretty much guaranteed to win the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf performer in America.
Second placed RED CADEAUX (40) ran a terrific race for to finish second, staying on strongly from a long way out all the way to the line. This run clearly flags up his chances for his second attempt at the Melbourne Cup. He'll have a bit more weight than when he lost by a short head last year but still looks a big player on this showing.
CLINICAL HAS REAL CHANCE IN WINDSOR FOREST
CLINICAL (39) kept on really well to win the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom. My sectional timing formula suggests her performance was good enough to win many Group 1 races for fillies.
Ground and distance appear to be the key factors for Clinical. She seems to need a fast surface and less than ten furlongs. So far she's won five times out of seven on Polytrack or good or faster ground over less than ten furlongs. She should have a real chance in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot on this showing.
Runner up JOVIALITY (38) has the build of a ten furlong performer and won the Musidora over that distance. She stayed on strongly despite getting unbalanced and was surely not helped by the rather moderate early gallop.
It could well be that Joviality is best in single figure fields. With a bit of luck she might have won all three times she's run in races with less than ten runners. But the only time she placed in bigger fields was on a maiden race. This being so I'm inclined to think she won't turn this form around in the Windsor Forest unless there's a smaller than average field. Besides I think she prefers longer.
Third placed BAREFOOT LADY (37) is so small she may well have trouble fighting for position around a turn except in tiny fields. This would explain why all her three wins have been on straight courses and also why the nearest she's come to winning around a turn was in the smallest field she's encountered. In the circumstances the Windsor Forest looks an even more logical target for her than the two horses that beat her as it is run on a straight course. For the same reason the Falmouth Stakes, the Prix Rothschild and the Sun Chariot Stakes seem tempting.
THE FUGUE SHOULD HAVE WON THE OAKS
The Oaks reminded us just how easily the track at Epsom generates major traffic problems. There were a whole series of incidents when the already moderate early pace slowed even more for a few seconds after about three furlongs. The field compressed, causing several horses in the rear to get in each other's way.
The principal sufferer was THE FUGUE (38) who had to be snatched up sharply, losing about two and a half lengths and momentum.
The way that The Fugue finished down the outside to get beat only three parts of a length suggests strongly that she should have won this race by a length or two. If she had she'd have equalled the speed rating of 39 that I gave her for her win in the Musidora.
The winner ended up being WAS (38) who clearly benefited from racing up close to the pace and staying out of trouble. Having said that Was clocked a perfectly respectable time and kept on strongly to hold off the late runs of the second and third.
On her previous start Was had finished third to the smart Princess Highway when not fully fit. That was her sole loss in three tries. At this stage I have my doubts about her being able to beat Princess Highway, The Fugue or stablemate Kissed in the Irish Oaks. But she's done pretty much everything you could ask and has the potential to develop.
Runner up SHIROCCO STAR (38) stayed on strongly and very nearly got up. Clearly she improved for the step up to a mile and a half. Her trainer noted last year that easier ground would suit her, just as it did her sire Shirocco. So I'm going to be cautious about her chances of acting on the faster Summer ground that now looks likely to prevail.
VOW (37) handled the track better than I thought she would and moved best for a long way. I thought she was going to go and win the race when she came to challenge two furlongs out. But she lacked the pace to cope with the sprint finish as well as her rivals. She's a deep chested, strong filly that would have appreciated a stronger gallop, a more testing track, softer ground or a longer distance.
GATEWOOD IS DEFINITELY GROUP CLASS
GATEWOOD (39) earned a borderline Group 2 class speed rating from me for the second successive time when winning a valuable ten furlong handicap on the Oaks card at Epsom. And he did so despite being boxed in until rather late in proceedings. He was full of running at the finish and my impression was that if he'd gotten out earlier he would have won by something like two lengths instead of a neck. This suggests he should have no trouble making a successful transition to Group company.
My one concern is that Gatewood is built and bred for a mile and a half and has probably only been able to produce such smart form over ten furlongs due to the strong early pace that's the norm in valuable handicaps. In pattern races I'd like to see him stepped up to a mile and a half, so I'm worried that his only current Group race entry is over ten furlongs.
The ten furlongs of the Wolferton handicap wouldn't worry me as it's invariably a very strongly run contest. If Gatewood can sneak into the bottom of the handicap for that race he'd surely he very hard to beat.
Runner up OTTOMAN EMPIRE (39) has earned a Group class rating from me before and is clearly very useful on Polytrack or fast turf. He goes for the Wolferton handicap as well but I have trouble seeing him turn this form around given how rapidly the winner swept by him once in the clear. He deserves a shot at Group company.
Third placed BORUG (39) had won a class 2 handicap, finished second to useful Group racer Slumber and run fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial the three previous times he'd run on fast ground around tight tracks. He's clearly very useful in such circumstances and insanely well handicapped on his old official mark of just 82. He's entered up at Goodwood and Chester this week to take advantage of that and will surely be hard to beat. Later on he's an obvious candidate for the valuable ten furlong handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
SKY LANTERN IS SMART
SKY LANTERN (36) recovered from a rather moderate early pace to clock a similar time to the well regarded colt Dawn Approach when winning a Listed race at Naas. She initially looked a little uncomfortable in the sprint finish but picked up twice - once to go clear with the runner up and then to shake her off in the last hundred yards.
Sky Lantern only had to be ridden along to win her race and passed the post moving strongly. She's not that big but looks the one they all have to beat in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Runner up TRUE VERDICT (35) produced an impressive surge to clear away from the rest of the field as she duelled with the winner. She looks Group class.
DAWN APPROACH NOT THAT SMART
DAWN APPROACH (33) stretched his unbeaten record to three with a near three length win in the Listed Rochestown Stakes at Naas. But once more he failed to clock anything better than a borderline Listed class time for a 2YO despite a strong early gallop.
The relatively slow time Dawn Approach ran the last three furlongs (1.2 seconds slower than Sky Lantern in the Fillies race) tells me that this is about as good as he is. And that's almost certainly not good enough for Royal Ascot however big his reputation may be.
JUST AN AVERAGE PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB
SAONOIS (40) is an athletic, nippy sort of horse, and I suspect this helped him win a rough renewal of the Prix du Jockey Club which highlighted once more the need to reduce the maximum field from the twenty that lined up this year.
A lot of horses were hung out very wide around the turns due to the huge field and many got hampered.
Saonois escaped all the trouble to scamper away from his rivals in the last 100 yards to win narrowly in a bunch finish.
This was just an average Prix du Jockey Club according to my ratings. But it's worth bearing in mind that if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in six starts on fast turf or the All Weather.
KESAMPOUR (39) came with what looked like a winning run down the outside to lead a furlong out. But his run flattened out late and he lost a three way photo for the runner up spot. It could well be he wasted valuable energy by being switched out wide for his run. In addition he's always looked likely to be better suited to the mile and a half of the Grand Prix de Paris. This was his first loss in five starts and he continues to look a potential Group 1 winner.
SAINT BAUDOLINO (39) won the photo for second. He couldn't go with the winner late but is clearly useful since he overcame traffic problems up the straight.
NUTELLO (39) improved for the step up in distance, staying on well to nearly take second. He is another obvious candidate for the Grand Prix de Paris. The same is true for Prix Hocquart winner TOP TRIP (38) who picked up well in the last quarter mile.
IMPERIAL MONARCH (37) and FRENCH FIFTEEN (37) both met serious traffic problems and are clearly capable of better. But the unluckiest horse of all was surely LUNAYIR (37) who led a furlong and a half out but then got badly squeezed out and had to be snatched up, losing a lot of momentum. He would probably have finished a close fifth or sixth but for this.
MASHOORA WAS UNLUCKY
MASHOORA (34) looked unlucky to me in the Prix Sandringham. She pulled hard and threw her head around due to the slow early pace set by the winner LAUGH OUT LOUD. Then she got caught a bit flat footed when the winner sprinted for home before keeping on strongly.
In a more normally run race I think Mashoora would have won. She'd looked smart winning the Prix Imprudence before getting stuck in the mud in the Guineas. I'll be very interested in her chances if she tackles the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next time.
SEDICIOSA PROBABLY A GROUP 1 FILLY
SEDICIOSA (38) is a classy looking filly that impressed me with her win in the Group 3 Prix de Royaumont at Chantilly.
Always moving well in third, Sediciosa looked in danger of not getting a clear run for a long way. But a gap opened up for her a furlong out and she surged through to win comfortably.
This run puts Sediciosa bang there with the best three year old fillies on my ratings. She'd be unbeaten in four outings if a short head photo in a sprint finish hadn't gone against her last time. I can readily see her doing very well in the Prix Vermeille and note with interest her connections have her entered in the Arc.
A lot of recent Derby winners have not been that smart. Nine of the last eighteen never won another Group race after their success at Epsom. However I don't think that is going to be the case with CAMELOT (43). He's a couple of lengths a mile better than the average Derby winner according to my ratings.
It was impressive how Camelot came from well off the strong pace set by stablemate Astrology to pick off the leaders quickly despite hanging, take the lead a furlong out and then surge five lengths by the time he reached the line.
With his sire Montjeu dying recently there is clearly a lot of pressure on Coolmore to find a replacement before the next breeding season. Camelot would be ideal as he's already won a big 2YO race and two Classics. The trick will be to use the next four months to build Camelot's reputation to a high enough level. That means hopefully keeping him unbeaten.
In a normal season this would not be a big problem. Camelot is almost certainly capable of beating any three year old over ten furlongs or more. In addition the weight for age allowance would usually give him a big edge over older horses in all-age races like the Arc.
The trouble is that this year, smart as he is, Camelot is up against a freakishly strong group of older horses that any three year old of the last quarter century would have trouble beating.
Foremost amongst these is of course the mighty Frankel. I can't imagine Camelot being able to beat Cecil's star and he surely won't be asked to face him.
Another older horse that Camelot ought to sidestep in my opinion is last season's highest rated middle distance performer Cirrus Des Aigles. The French horse looks likely to win a whole bunch of the top WFA races. His tenacity and turn of foot could easily make Camelot look bad.
Finally I would be wary of tackling the Arc with Camelot. Aidan O'Brien's Classic colts are invariably over the top by the time that race is run. Proof of this is that he's had 33 three year old runners in British, French and Irish Group 1's in October or later over the last sixteen years and they've all lost. The only two to reach the first three were Eagle Mountain who was rested for ten weeks before running second in the Champion Stakes and High Chaparral who was off to three months before running third in the Arc.
In the circumstances there's an awful lot to like about the plan mooted by Camelot's connections of shooting for the St Leger. This would avoid the problems presented by the older generation while at the same time giving him a huge chance of becoming the first Triple Crown winner in over fourty years. If he did that it would probably earn bigger headlines than anything Frankel, Cirrus des Aigles or any other horse does this season.
Runner up MAIN SEQUENCE (40) got rather warm before the race but still produced a lifetime best effort to come with a strong late run and snatch second on the line. My ratings say he's just a good Group 2 horse, so he'll probably struggle to win again if he's kept to top level races.
The one Group 1 race I could just about see Main Sequence winning is the Grand Prix de Paris. The absence of Camelot from that race would clearly enhance Main Sequence's chances, so it seems logical to make it his immediate target.
Incidentally I have a slight quibble over the naming of Main Sequence. He is by Aldeberan, a sire clearly named for the binary star system 65.1 million light years away in the Constellation Taurus.
The thing is neither Aldeberan A or B is a main sequence star. Aldeberan A is an orange red giant and Aldeberan B s a red dwarf. So although you could say that Main Sequence established himself as a star with his Derby second he's not really bred to be a Main Sequence star.
Third placed ASTROLOGY (40) set a stronger pace than previous Memphis Tennessee, At First Sight and Golden Sword had for Coolmore in the previous three Derbies. And he looked to pay the price for doing so. He looked likely to win and went odds on in running when kicking clear two furlongs out. But the effect of his earlier exertions told and he got caught.
My feeling is that Astrology would have been a clear second if he'd been able to go a bit slower early. I therefore think he's going to prove capable of winning a Group 1 of his own. His best options are clearly the Grand Prix de Paris or, if Camelot skips the race, the Irish Derby.
BONFIRE (34) moved well for a long way and looked a threat turning in. However he tired in the closing stages. It could be he regressed due to the effects of his hard race in the Dante or that he simply didn't stay.
No doubt Bonfire will be rested following this run. I imagine he'll be brought back for the Eclipse or, more likely, the Juddmonte International.
ASCOT NOT A GREAT OPTION FOR ST NICHOLAS ABBEY
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY (43) showed a seriously good turn of foot to quicken away from his rivals in the Coronation Cup. The performance showed once again that he is a world class performer.
Following as it did, less than a month after his flop at the Curragh, this run lends more weight to the idea that St Nicholas Abbey is best on left-handed tracks.
As I've mentioned before St Nicholas Abbey has won around the right handed dog leg at the Curragh, but he's lost all five times he's been asked to tackle a full right hand turn - at Ascot, Longchamp and the Curragh. If the photo had gone his way in the Sheema Classic he would have won all five times he's run on left handed tracks.
In the circumstances I don't like the two targets nominated by trainer Aidan O'Brien after this race, namely the Prince Of Wales or the King George. Both of those races are at right handed Ascot.
If he were mine I'd be shifting St Nicholas Abbey's focus to America where all the tracks are left handed. He would be hot favourite for the United Nations, the Man O'War, the Sword Dancer, the Arlington Million or the Turf Classic. By winning one or more of those races in addition to a second Breeders' Cup Turf he would be pretty much guaranteed to win the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf performer in America.
Second placed RED CADEAUX (40) ran a terrific race for to finish second, staying on strongly from a long way out all the way to the line. This run clearly flags up his chances for his second attempt at the Melbourne Cup. He'll have a bit more weight than when he lost by a short head last year but still looks a big player on this showing.
CLINICAL HAS REAL CHANCE IN WINDSOR FOREST
CLINICAL (39) kept on really well to win the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom. My sectional timing formula suggests her performance was good enough to win many Group 1 races for fillies.
Ground and distance appear to be the key factors for Clinical. She seems to need a fast surface and less than ten furlongs. So far she's won five times out of seven on Polytrack or good or faster ground over less than ten furlongs. She should have a real chance in the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot on this showing.
Runner up JOVIALITY (38) has the build of a ten furlong performer and won the Musidora over that distance. She stayed on strongly despite getting unbalanced and was surely not helped by the rather moderate early gallop.
It could well be that Joviality is best in single figure fields. With a bit of luck she might have won all three times she's run in races with less than ten runners. But the only time she placed in bigger fields was on a maiden race. This being so I'm inclined to think she won't turn this form around in the Windsor Forest unless there's a smaller than average field. Besides I think she prefers longer.
Third placed BAREFOOT LADY (37) is so small she may well have trouble fighting for position around a turn except in tiny fields. This would explain why all her three wins have been on straight courses and also why the nearest she's come to winning around a turn was in the smallest field she's encountered. In the circumstances the Windsor Forest looks an even more logical target for her than the two horses that beat her as it is run on a straight course. For the same reason the Falmouth Stakes, the Prix Rothschild and the Sun Chariot Stakes seem tempting.
THE FUGUE SHOULD HAVE WON THE OAKS
The Oaks reminded us just how easily the track at Epsom generates major traffic problems. There were a whole series of incidents when the already moderate early pace slowed even more for a few seconds after about three furlongs. The field compressed, causing several horses in the rear to get in each other's way.
The principal sufferer was THE FUGUE (38) who had to be snatched up sharply, losing about two and a half lengths and momentum.
The way that The Fugue finished down the outside to get beat only three parts of a length suggests strongly that she should have won this race by a length or two. If she had she'd have equalled the speed rating of 39 that I gave her for her win in the Musidora.
The winner ended up being WAS (38) who clearly benefited from racing up close to the pace and staying out of trouble. Having said that Was clocked a perfectly respectable time and kept on strongly to hold off the late runs of the second and third.
On her previous start Was had finished third to the smart Princess Highway when not fully fit. That was her sole loss in three tries. At this stage I have my doubts about her being able to beat Princess Highway, The Fugue or stablemate Kissed in the Irish Oaks. But she's done pretty much everything you could ask and has the potential to develop.
Runner up SHIROCCO STAR (38) stayed on strongly and very nearly got up. Clearly she improved for the step up to a mile and a half. Her trainer noted last year that easier ground would suit her, just as it did her sire Shirocco. So I'm going to be cautious about her chances of acting on the faster Summer ground that now looks likely to prevail.
VOW (37) handled the track better than I thought she would and moved best for a long way. I thought she was going to go and win the race when she came to challenge two furlongs out. But she lacked the pace to cope with the sprint finish as well as her rivals. She's a deep chested, strong filly that would have appreciated a stronger gallop, a more testing track, softer ground or a longer distance.
GATEWOOD IS DEFINITELY GROUP CLASS
GATEWOOD (39) earned a borderline Group 2 class speed rating from me for the second successive time when winning a valuable ten furlong handicap on the Oaks card at Epsom. And he did so despite being boxed in until rather late in proceedings. He was full of running at the finish and my impression was that if he'd gotten out earlier he would have won by something like two lengths instead of a neck. This suggests he should have no trouble making a successful transition to Group company.
My one concern is that Gatewood is built and bred for a mile and a half and has probably only been able to produce such smart form over ten furlongs due to the strong early pace that's the norm in valuable handicaps. In pattern races I'd like to see him stepped up to a mile and a half, so I'm worried that his only current Group race entry is over ten furlongs.
The ten furlongs of the Wolferton handicap wouldn't worry me as it's invariably a very strongly run contest. If Gatewood can sneak into the bottom of the handicap for that race he'd surely he very hard to beat.
Runner up OTTOMAN EMPIRE (39) has earned a Group class rating from me before and is clearly very useful on Polytrack or fast turf. He goes for the Wolferton handicap as well but I have trouble seeing him turn this form around given how rapidly the winner swept by him once in the clear. He deserves a shot at Group company.
Third placed BORUG (39) had won a class 2 handicap, finished second to useful Group racer Slumber and run fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial the three previous times he'd run on fast ground around tight tracks. He's clearly very useful in such circumstances and insanely well handicapped on his old official mark of just 82. He's entered up at Goodwood and Chester this week to take advantage of that and will surely be hard to beat. Later on he's an obvious candidate for the valuable ten furlong handicap at Glorious Goodwood.
SKY LANTERN IS SMART
SKY LANTERN (36) recovered from a rather moderate early pace to clock a similar time to the well regarded colt Dawn Approach when winning a Listed race at Naas. She initially looked a little uncomfortable in the sprint finish but picked up twice - once to go clear with the runner up and then to shake her off in the last hundred yards.
Sky Lantern only had to be ridden along to win her race and passed the post moving strongly. She's not that big but looks the one they all have to beat in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Runner up TRUE VERDICT (35) produced an impressive surge to clear away from the rest of the field as she duelled with the winner. She looks Group class.
DAWN APPROACH NOT THAT SMART
DAWN APPROACH (33) stretched his unbeaten record to three with a near three length win in the Listed Rochestown Stakes at Naas. But once more he failed to clock anything better than a borderline Listed class time for a 2YO despite a strong early gallop.
The relatively slow time Dawn Approach ran the last three furlongs (1.2 seconds slower than Sky Lantern in the Fillies race) tells me that this is about as good as he is. And that's almost certainly not good enough for Royal Ascot however big his reputation may be.
JUST AN AVERAGE PRIX DU JOCKEY CLUB
SAONOIS (40) is an athletic, nippy sort of horse, and I suspect this helped him win a rough renewal of the Prix du Jockey Club which highlighted once more the need to reduce the maximum field from the twenty that lined up this year.
A lot of horses were hung out very wide around the turns due to the huge field and many got hampered.
Saonois escaped all the trouble to scamper away from his rivals in the last 100 yards to win narrowly in a bunch finish.
This was just an average Prix du Jockey Club according to my ratings. But it's worth bearing in mind that if a short head photo against the useful Sir Jade had gone his way Saonois would now be unbeaten in six starts on fast turf or the All Weather.
KESAMPOUR (39) came with what looked like a winning run down the outside to lead a furlong out. But his run flattened out late and he lost a three way photo for the runner up spot. It could well be he wasted valuable energy by being switched out wide for his run. In addition he's always looked likely to be better suited to the mile and a half of the Grand Prix de Paris. This was his first loss in five starts and he continues to look a potential Group 1 winner.
SAINT BAUDOLINO (39) won the photo for second. He couldn't go with the winner late but is clearly useful since he overcame traffic problems up the straight.
NUTELLO (39) improved for the step up in distance, staying on well to nearly take second. He is another obvious candidate for the Grand Prix de Paris. The same is true for Prix Hocquart winner TOP TRIP (38) who picked up well in the last quarter mile.
IMPERIAL MONARCH (37) and FRENCH FIFTEEN (37) both met serious traffic problems and are clearly capable of better. But the unluckiest horse of all was surely LUNAYIR (37) who led a furlong and a half out but then got badly squeezed out and had to be snatched up, losing a lot of momentum. He would probably have finished a close fifth or sixth but for this.
MASHOORA WAS UNLUCKY
MASHOORA (34) looked unlucky to me in the Prix Sandringham. She pulled hard and threw her head around due to the slow early pace set by the winner LAUGH OUT LOUD. Then she got caught a bit flat footed when the winner sprinted for home before keeping on strongly.
In a more normally run race I think Mashoora would have won. She'd looked smart winning the Prix Imprudence before getting stuck in the mud in the Guineas. I'll be very interested in her chances if she tackles the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot next time.
SEDICIOSA PROBABLY A GROUP 1 FILLY
SEDICIOSA (38) is a classy looking filly that impressed me with her win in the Group 3 Prix de Royaumont at Chantilly.
Always moving well in third, Sediciosa looked in danger of not getting a clear run for a long way. But a gap opened up for her a furlong out and she surged through to win comfortably.
This run puts Sediciosa bang there with the best three year old fillies on my ratings. She'd be unbeaten in four outings if a short head photo in a sprint finish hadn't gone against her last time. I can readily see her doing very well in the Prix Vermeille and note with interest her connections have her entered in the Arc.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
rorydelargy
At the Start
That whole spiel would work better if he bothered to get the spelling of Aldebaran right (sorry Marble!).
I thought Aldebaran was blown up by the death star in Star Wars......
Colin Phillips
At the Start
BACKBENCH BLUES IS VERY SMART
BACKBENCH BLUES (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win the Listed Nijinsky Stakes at Leopardstown. He kicked clear early in the straight and maintained a big lead despite wandering all over the place in the heavy ground in the closing stages.
The winner got from the electricity sub station just after the ten furlong start to the finish 1.9 seconds or more faster than any of the other four winners over 10f+ on the card. I have to award him a very good Group 2 class speed rating for the performance.
Looking at his form you could argue that Backbench Blues is not at this best on good or faster turf since that would account for his two losses. But it's also interesting to note that his two defeats have also come the only two times he's tackled right handed courses. Given the way that he wandered in the closing stages this may well be the right interpretation.
In any event Backbench Blues is clearly smart and deserves a shot at something better. The bottomless ground made this a much greater test of stamina than most eleven furlong races, so I wouldn't be concerned about him staying a mile and a half or even a mil4e and three quarters.
Further back in the field CORAL WAVE (33) ran like a non stayer, tiring badly after being second turning into the homestraight. She'd inflicted the only defeat the smart Homecoming Queen has suffered in five tries on yielding or softer ground when winning the Group 3 CL Weld Park Stakes on heavy going last season. Therefore I don't think the going is a valid excuse. She probably needs to go back to a mile.
PENNY'S PICNIC STILL ON TARGET FOR PAPIN
PENNY'S PICNIC (34) didn't run as spectacularly fast as he had on his previous start when winning a Listed five furlong race at Maisons-Laffitte. But he made all the running and jockey Thiery Jarnet never had to go for the whip as he nudged him out to a three quarters of a length success.
Penny's Picnic was moving smoothly passing the line and clearly could have produced more. It was interesting that Jarnet said after the race he felt his mount wasn't getting through the soft ground very well and would have preferred a faster surface. This makes sense as he's a good moving sort. But it was just as slow when he scored his runaway success in fast time on his previous start. So I'm a bit dubious on that score.
In any event Penny's Picnic will clearly be tough to beat in the Prix Robert Papin and the Prix Morny afterwards.
XANADOU A BIT HARD TO ASSESS
XANADOU (38) ran like a smart horse when winning the Group 3 Prix Paul de Moussac at Chantilly over a mile. He only had to be shaken up to catch the pacemaking Archbishop, who had been given an easy lead, and swamped his rivals for finishing speed.
Xanadou is a good moving horse that clearly has a serious turn of foot. He's only lost once in five starts. This was when he got badly hampered in the Prix de Guiche on his previous start.
In the Prix de Guiche Xanadou quickened up to lead by about a length with a furlong to run. Then very soon after he started to tire. His pursuers caught him and then squeezed him out, causing him to be snatched up dramatically about thirty yards from the finish.
It certainly looked like Xanadou ran out of stamina in the nine furlong Prix de Guiche. But he's such a good mover there has to be a real chance it was simply the soft ground that caused him a problem. He has the build of a ten furlong horse and is a half brother to a useful 11 furlong winner in Spain despite the fact his dam was a sprinter. So I'm going to go with the idea that he'll stay ten furlongs for now.
I should note that it looked like Xanadou could have won by a length or two more if he'd been pushed. That makes him look a serious candidate for the Prix Jean Prat over the same course and distance as the Prix Paul de Moussac next month.
This is the third time in a row that runner up ARCHBSHOP (37) has tired dramatically late in proceedings. You could argue that he'd do better if cut back to seven furlongs. But it's equally possible that this is simply the way he runs. It's possible he prefers faster ground too since he beat the smart Faraaj the only time he encountered such a surface.
BACKBENCH BLUES (39) clocked a seriously fast time to win the Listed Nijinsky Stakes at Leopardstown. He kicked clear early in the straight and maintained a big lead despite wandering all over the place in the heavy ground in the closing stages.
The winner got from the electricity sub station just after the ten furlong start to the finish 1.9 seconds or more faster than any of the other four winners over 10f+ on the card. I have to award him a very good Group 2 class speed rating for the performance.
Looking at his form you could argue that Backbench Blues is not at this best on good or faster turf since that would account for his two losses. But it's also interesting to note that his two defeats have also come the only two times he's tackled right handed courses. Given the way that he wandered in the closing stages this may well be the right interpretation.
In any event Backbench Blues is clearly smart and deserves a shot at something better. The bottomless ground made this a much greater test of stamina than most eleven furlong races, so I wouldn't be concerned about him staying a mile and a half or even a mil4e and three quarters.
Further back in the field CORAL WAVE (33) ran like a non stayer, tiring badly after being second turning into the homestraight. She'd inflicted the only defeat the smart Homecoming Queen has suffered in five tries on yielding or softer ground when winning the Group 3 CL Weld Park Stakes on heavy going last season. Therefore I don't think the going is a valid excuse. She probably needs to go back to a mile.
PENNY'S PICNIC STILL ON TARGET FOR PAPIN
PENNY'S PICNIC (34) didn't run as spectacularly fast as he had on his previous start when winning a Listed five furlong race at Maisons-Laffitte. But he made all the running and jockey Thiery Jarnet never had to go for the whip as he nudged him out to a three quarters of a length success.
Penny's Picnic was moving smoothly passing the line and clearly could have produced more. It was interesting that Jarnet said after the race he felt his mount wasn't getting through the soft ground very well and would have preferred a faster surface. This makes sense as he's a good moving sort. But it was just as slow when he scored his runaway success in fast time on his previous start. So I'm a bit dubious on that score.
In any event Penny's Picnic will clearly be tough to beat in the Prix Robert Papin and the Prix Morny afterwards.
XANADOU A BIT HARD TO ASSESS
XANADOU (38) ran like a smart horse when winning the Group 3 Prix Paul de Moussac at Chantilly over a mile. He only had to be shaken up to catch the pacemaking Archbishop, who had been given an easy lead, and swamped his rivals for finishing speed.
Xanadou is a good moving horse that clearly has a serious turn of foot. He's only lost once in five starts. This was when he got badly hampered in the Prix de Guiche on his previous start.
In the Prix de Guiche Xanadou quickened up to lead by about a length with a furlong to run. Then very soon after he started to tire. His pursuers caught him and then squeezed him out, causing him to be snatched up dramatically about thirty yards from the finish.
It certainly looked like Xanadou ran out of stamina in the nine furlong Prix de Guiche. But he's such a good mover there has to be a real chance it was simply the soft ground that caused him a problem. He has the build of a ten furlong horse and is a half brother to a useful 11 furlong winner in Spain despite the fact his dam was a sprinter. So I'm going to go with the idea that he'll stay ten furlongs for now.
I should note that it looked like Xanadou could have won by a length or two more if he'd been pushed. That makes him look a serious candidate for the Prix Jean Prat over the same course and distance as the Prix Paul de Moussac next month.
This is the third time in a row that runner up ARCHBSHOP (37) has tired dramatically late in proceedings. You could argue that he'd do better if cut back to seven furlongs. But it's equally possible that this is simply the way he runs. It's possible he prefers faster ground too since he beat the smart Faraaj the only time he encountered such a surface.
chroniclandlord
Senior Jockey
Nick did well to find something to write a column about, the quality on show in the last ten days has been awful.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
MASTERSTROKE WAS ROBBED
History will record that REMUS DE LA TOUR (31) won the 2012 Prix du Lys. But he basically stole the race under a very sneaky front running ride by Davy Bonilla.
Bonilla was able to get away with setting a very moderate pace on Remus De La Tour. The official sectional times show that he was running at a rate of 13.46 seconds per 200 metres (furlong) up to the point they hit 600 metres (three furlongs) from home. Bonilla then kicked his mount into overdrive and he sprinted the home from there are a rate of 12.05 seconds per furlong. That's the equivalent of 11.5 seconds a furlong on fast ground, which is flying for the end of a mile and a half race.
The early pace was so slow that even with my sectional timing formula I can't bump the speed rating up to be representative for the class. When this happens and an unchallenged leader wins it invariably means they enjoyed a huge tactical advantage.
Remus De La Tour had only won three times out of ten in his previous starts despite never racing above Listed class and running on provincial courses all but two times.
Runner up MASTERSTROKE (31) got caught flat footed soon after Remus De La tour quickened but rallied very strongly. He was cutting into the winner's lead with every stride close home but just failed to get up by a short neck. I've no doubt he will prove the better horse of the pair.
On his previous start Masterstroke had earned one of the biggest ratings I've given a 3YO this season when he finished a half length second to Top Trip in the Group 2 Prix Hocquart. Top Trip went on to frank that form when a strong finishing two and a quarter length fifth of twenty in the Prix du Jockey Club.
At the time I thought that Masterstroke was more a prospect for the end of the season. But he's a really good looking horse and impressed me by nearly pulling this race out of the fire in an impossible tactical situation. I reckon he's going to be a big player in the Grand Prix de Paris.
VALYRA WON PRIX DE DIANE FAIR AND SQUARE
BEAUTY PARLOUR (39) started a hot favourite to maintain her unbeaten record in the Prix de Diane. And she looked nailed on to do so when kicking over two lengths clear soon after turning into the straight. However she got run down by the strong finishing Valyra.
Beauty Parlour had plenty of time to respond to Valyra's challenge but simply looked to be beaten by a rival with superior acceleration.
It's possible that Beauty Parlour had been in front too long. But it didn't look that way to me. In fact she enjoyed a tactical edge by kicking for home early off a fairly ordinary early pace.
VALYRA (40) is now unbeaten in three starts. This run establishes her as the best three year old filly in Europe. However it's going to get tougher for her from now on as there are some very smart older fillies around. In addition there are a couple of 3YO colts in Camelot and Novellist that look to be faster than her.
MOONWALK IN PARIS CRYING OUT FOR TEN FURLONGS
After he won for the third time in a row at Saint-Cloud in April I suggested that MOONWALK IN PARIS (39) would benefit from a step up in distance to ten furlongs.
I'm even more convinced of this following his strong finishing second in a red hot renewal of the Prix du Chemin de Fer du Nord at Chantilly. He picked up really off a strong early pace well but couldn't quite get to the winner.
I can see Moonwalk In Paris improving over ten furlongs to win Group 2 and maybe even Group 1 races. Clearly he's already improved for being gelded over the Winter.
The winner VAGABOND SHOES (40) was also gelded after last season and bounced right back to this best here.
It does seem that Vagabond Shoes is best on galloping tracks in fields of ten or less. He's now won six times out of eight in these circumstances, with one of his losses being a three quarter length second in last year's Prix du Chemin de Fer du Nord to Group 1 winner Byword.
It could be I'm reading a pattern into Vagabond Shoes' form that's irrelevant and that he's going to run more consistently in a wide variety of circumstances from now on.
In any event his success shows that despite their small racehorse population Spain can still produce smart thoroughbreds at every distance. Equiano won a British Group 1 over five furlongs for Spain. Bannaby won a two and a half mile Group 1 in France for Spain. Moonwalk In Paris is no longer trained in Spain but still has his original Spanish owner. And he must have a decent shot of taking a Group 1 as well. His best chances of doing so I suspect will be in the Woodbine Mile or the Premio Vittorio Capua.
MEANDRE FAILS TO HANDLE SOFT GROUND
On paper MEANDRE (36) looked a good thing to win the Group 3 La Coupe at Longchamp. After all he'd won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris last year.
Unfortunately the ground was simply too soft for Meandre. This became apparent some way out when he was already being ridden along. It became more obvious when he changed his legs and wandered to his left with about a furlong and a half left to run.
Meandre kept on well and wasn't tired at the finish. But at no point did he lengthen his stride as he has on faster ground. In fact through the last two furlongs his stride length was just 20 feet compared with 23.9 feet in the Grand Prix de Paris.
So far Meandre has lost all nine times he's run on ground that race times indicate was slower than good. He's won three out of four on quicker surfaces, with his sole loss being a good sixth of sixteen in the Arc.
As I see it this second successive loss on soft ground simply means that Meandre will likely start at a very attractive price the next time he gets the fast surface he so clearly needs.
I note with interest that Meandre is in next month's Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten and also the Grosser Preis von Baden in September. Those races normally feature the kind of smallish field that Meandre seems to prefer. So they look good targets for him - even though he may have to give weight away to the scarily good 3YO Novellist in the latter contest.
Longer term I'd like to see Meandre sidestep the Arc or simply use it as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Turf, a race that should suit him admirably.
The winner NO RISK AT ALL (39) cruised away with the race and looked impressive. But with the runner up not handling the ground he really didn't have that much to beat. He's smart in small fields, especially in mud, but he's only a borderline Group 2 horse and looks likely to be overfaced and overbet in his next few outings.
HUGE RUN BY SAPPHIRE
SAPPHIRE (40) showed that she's a top class filly with a most impressive win in the Noblesse Stakes at Cork. She simply ran away from her rivals up the straight, clocking a time 1.3 seconds faster for the final three furlongs than in the 3.25 furlong shorter open handicap despite a strong early pace. I have to rate it a proper Group 1 effort.
It's hard to get away from the fact that Sapphire has won all four times she's run on ground softer than yielding and lost all four times she's run on a faster surface. But she doesn't look like a mudlark to me seeing the terrific finishing kick she produced here. My feeling is that she has improved massively from three to four and may very well be able to reproduce this form on a faster surface in the Pretty Polly Stakes.
Group 1 races like the Pretty Polly should be well within Sapphire's capabilities on this showing.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) seemed to be moving best for a long way and would have been an impressive winner if Sapphire hadn't lined up. She powered away from the rest of the field, showing serious stamina to sustain her effort as she vainly pursued the winner. And for the first time she showed not the slightest sign of inexperience. This run makes the Park Hill Stakes look a good target for her.
History will record that REMUS DE LA TOUR (31) won the 2012 Prix du Lys. But he basically stole the race under a very sneaky front running ride by Davy Bonilla.
Bonilla was able to get away with setting a very moderate pace on Remus De La Tour. The official sectional times show that he was running at a rate of 13.46 seconds per 200 metres (furlong) up to the point they hit 600 metres (three furlongs) from home. Bonilla then kicked his mount into overdrive and he sprinted the home from there are a rate of 12.05 seconds per furlong. That's the equivalent of 11.5 seconds a furlong on fast ground, which is flying for the end of a mile and a half race.
The early pace was so slow that even with my sectional timing formula I can't bump the speed rating up to be representative for the class. When this happens and an unchallenged leader wins it invariably means they enjoyed a huge tactical advantage.
Remus De La Tour had only won three times out of ten in his previous starts despite never racing above Listed class and running on provincial courses all but two times.
Runner up MASTERSTROKE (31) got caught flat footed soon after Remus De La tour quickened but rallied very strongly. He was cutting into the winner's lead with every stride close home but just failed to get up by a short neck. I've no doubt he will prove the better horse of the pair.
On his previous start Masterstroke had earned one of the biggest ratings I've given a 3YO this season when he finished a half length second to Top Trip in the Group 2 Prix Hocquart. Top Trip went on to frank that form when a strong finishing two and a quarter length fifth of twenty in the Prix du Jockey Club.
At the time I thought that Masterstroke was more a prospect for the end of the season. But he's a really good looking horse and impressed me by nearly pulling this race out of the fire in an impossible tactical situation. I reckon he's going to be a big player in the Grand Prix de Paris.
VALYRA WON PRIX DE DIANE FAIR AND SQUARE
BEAUTY PARLOUR (39) started a hot favourite to maintain her unbeaten record in the Prix de Diane. And she looked nailed on to do so when kicking over two lengths clear soon after turning into the straight. However she got run down by the strong finishing Valyra.
Beauty Parlour had plenty of time to respond to Valyra's challenge but simply looked to be beaten by a rival with superior acceleration.
It's possible that Beauty Parlour had been in front too long. But it didn't look that way to me. In fact she enjoyed a tactical edge by kicking for home early off a fairly ordinary early pace.
VALYRA (40) is now unbeaten in three starts. This run establishes her as the best three year old filly in Europe. However it's going to get tougher for her from now on as there are some very smart older fillies around. In addition there are a couple of 3YO colts in Camelot and Novellist that look to be faster than her.
MOONWALK IN PARIS CRYING OUT FOR TEN FURLONGS
After he won for the third time in a row at Saint-Cloud in April I suggested that MOONWALK IN PARIS (39) would benefit from a step up in distance to ten furlongs.
I'm even more convinced of this following his strong finishing second in a red hot renewal of the Prix du Chemin de Fer du Nord at Chantilly. He picked up really off a strong early pace well but couldn't quite get to the winner.
I can see Moonwalk In Paris improving over ten furlongs to win Group 2 and maybe even Group 1 races. Clearly he's already improved for being gelded over the Winter.
The winner VAGABOND SHOES (40) was also gelded after last season and bounced right back to this best here.
It does seem that Vagabond Shoes is best on galloping tracks in fields of ten or less. He's now won six times out of eight in these circumstances, with one of his losses being a three quarter length second in last year's Prix du Chemin de Fer du Nord to Group 1 winner Byword.
It could be I'm reading a pattern into Vagabond Shoes' form that's irrelevant and that he's going to run more consistently in a wide variety of circumstances from now on.
In any event his success shows that despite their small racehorse population Spain can still produce smart thoroughbreds at every distance. Equiano won a British Group 1 over five furlongs for Spain. Bannaby won a two and a half mile Group 1 in France for Spain. Moonwalk In Paris is no longer trained in Spain but still has his original Spanish owner. And he must have a decent shot of taking a Group 1 as well. His best chances of doing so I suspect will be in the Woodbine Mile or the Premio Vittorio Capua.
MEANDRE FAILS TO HANDLE SOFT GROUND
On paper MEANDRE (36) looked a good thing to win the Group 3 La Coupe at Longchamp. After all he'd won the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris last year.
Unfortunately the ground was simply too soft for Meandre. This became apparent some way out when he was already being ridden along. It became more obvious when he changed his legs and wandered to his left with about a furlong and a half left to run.
Meandre kept on well and wasn't tired at the finish. But at no point did he lengthen his stride as he has on faster ground. In fact through the last two furlongs his stride length was just 20 feet compared with 23.9 feet in the Grand Prix de Paris.
So far Meandre has lost all nine times he's run on ground that race times indicate was slower than good. He's won three out of four on quicker surfaces, with his sole loss being a good sixth of sixteen in the Arc.
As I see it this second successive loss on soft ground simply means that Meandre will likely start at a very attractive price the next time he gets the fast surface he so clearly needs.
I note with interest that Meandre is in next month's Grosser Preis von Berlin at Hoppegarten and also the Grosser Preis von Baden in September. Those races normally feature the kind of smallish field that Meandre seems to prefer. So they look good targets for him - even though he may have to give weight away to the scarily good 3YO Novellist in the latter contest.
Longer term I'd like to see Meandre sidestep the Arc or simply use it as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Turf, a race that should suit him admirably.
The winner NO RISK AT ALL (39) cruised away with the race and looked impressive. But with the runner up not handling the ground he really didn't have that much to beat. He's smart in small fields, especially in mud, but he's only a borderline Group 2 horse and looks likely to be overfaced and overbet in his next few outings.
HUGE RUN BY SAPPHIRE
SAPPHIRE (40) showed that she's a top class filly with a most impressive win in the Noblesse Stakes at Cork. She simply ran away from her rivals up the straight, clocking a time 1.3 seconds faster for the final three furlongs than in the 3.25 furlong shorter open handicap despite a strong early pace. I have to rate it a proper Group 1 effort.
It's hard to get away from the fact that Sapphire has won all four times she's run on ground softer than yielding and lost all four times she's run on a faster surface. But she doesn't look like a mudlark to me seeing the terrific finishing kick she produced here. My feeling is that she has improved massively from three to four and may very well be able to reproduce this form on a faster surface in the Pretty Polly Stakes.
Group 1 races like the Pretty Polly should be well within Sapphire's capabilities on this showing.
Runner up BETTERBETTERBETTER (37) seemed to be moving best for a long way and would have been an impressive winner if Sapphire hadn't lined up. She powered away from the rest of the field, showing serious stamina to sustain her effort as she vainly pursued the winner. And for the first time she showed not the slightest sign of inexperience. This run makes the Park Hill Stakes look a good target for her.
Colin Phillips
At the Start
SECTIONAL TIMES ARE ESSENTIAL
Official race distances in both Britain and Ireland are inaccurate. Worse still they vary from one meeting to another due to rail movements. This makes it impossible to produce accurate speed ratings with normal methods based on standard times. Sectional times are the only practical option as they allow you to compare how fast horses have run over the same section of ground in races of different distances.
This being so I am once more extremely grateful to Turftrax and Qipco for providing sectional times at Royal Ascot last week. I wish we could have them for every meeting.
In recent years punters have drifted away from horse racing to other betting mediums where the basic published information can be trusted. Sectional times would provide a very good way of countering this trend. Without them and other official data that's published elsewhere punters are surely going to ask themselves why they should bother to analyse British and Irish races when racing officials aren't prepared to.
FRANKEL DOES IT AGAIN
I have a theoretical maximum rating of 47 that I can award using my methods. For the second time in a row FRANKEL (47) turned the theoretical into reality when running astonishingly fast to take the Queen Anne Stakes by a monstrous eleven lengths.
You all saw what he did and have read how highly everyone rates his performance so I will not dwell on it. The only new thing I have to add is that I measured his stride during the fastest part of the race and found it to be 26 feet and nine inches. This is significantly longer that the stride length I obtained by counting Frankel's strides over the last five furlongs of the Lockinge. However subsequent research has told me that horses' strides are longest when they're travelling at top speed and cannot be sustained for five furlongs.
It seems abundantly clear from his physique and pedigree that Frankel will have no trouble lasting the ten furlongs of the Eclipse Stakes. He will face a stiffer test there against So You Think. Coolmore's ex-Australian star routinely runs just four lengths a mile slower than Frankel on my ratings and specialises over the ten furlongs of the Eclipse.
Any reduction in the level Frankel's performance at Sandown caused by the extra distance or by running around a turn could put his unbeaten record in danger. It might therefore be wiser to run him in the Juddmonte International at York where the turn isn't as tight and the homestraight is a little longer and not uphill. In addition the opposition at York may well be a bit weaker.
Most likely Frankel will get through the next three months without being beaten. The real test will come if his connections opt to tackle the Champion Stakes rather than the QEII at Ascot on what I presume will be his final start in October.
I still suspect that the reason Frankel came close to defeat in the St James's Palace Stakes was that it was the only time he's run in Group 1 company around a track with a short homestraight. His chief asset is his huge stride and he can't use it fully except on a straight course or one with a long homestraight.
It was interesting to hear trainer Henry Cecil say after the Queen Anne that he had still to choose between the QEII and the Champion Stakes for the last race of Frankel's campaign. As a punter I have to say I'm hoping he goes for the longer race with the short homestraight. But as a racing fan I'd like to see him bow out with another imperious win on a straight course in the QEII.
When a horse dominates their opposition as much as Frankel did here, especially if there is cut in the ground, the lengths between runners are often amplified. My ratings suggest it's best to assume that this caused the beaten lengths to be half as big again in this race.
The connections of runner up EXCELEBRATION (41) hardly need reminding of how dominant Frankel can be. Their horse paid the price for trying to make a race of it with the champion. He has now won six of his last eleven races, finished second to Frankel in four others and third to him at this meeting last year.
If he were mine I'd be resting Excelebration soon to keep him fresh for an Autumn campaign in America. He showed that he should handle the tight tracks and sprint finishes of US turf racing when romping away with the German Guineas. So I'd say the Shadwell Turf Mile and Breeders' Cup Mile offer his best chance of Group 1 success this season. His trainer Aidan O'Brien has already won the first named race twice from just five runners while success in the Breeders Cup Mile would boost his stud value far more than any European win could.
Third placed SIDE GLANCE (41) ran a close fourth in last year's Woodbine Mile and again showed he's not far off Group 1 class here. His record shows that he's won six of the seven times he's run seven furlongs or more below Group 1 class off a break less than five weeks. Next time he meets those circumstances he'll be hard to beat.
German raider INDOMITO (39) often runs into traffic problems in big fields around a turn. So it makes sense that he'd do well on a straight course. If a couple of close finishes had gone his way he would have won three of the last four times he's run in single figure fields and finished second to the top class Musir in Europe's most valuable mile race where the winner ran seriously fast. He's entered in the Group 2 Meilen Trophy at Hannover next month. That track clearly suits him as he's won both times he run there to date.
Further back in the field STRONG SUIT (34) seemed to show once more that he doesn't like cut in the ground or distances longer than seven furlongs. He has the ability to win a Group 1 and needs to take one to secure his value as a stallion. But the only European Group 1 over his specialist trip of seven furlongs is the Prix de la Foret, a race that is run on ground softer than good too often to make it his main target. The logical alternative is the Prix Maurice de Gheest over half a furlong less.
WORTHADD (33) moved well in fifth place for a long way and improved to fourth with two furlongs left. But stopped to nothing in the closing stages to finish last.
In almost all his previous starts Worthadd had led or run second in the early stages. In his wins he's led quite some way from the finish and been allowed to pretty much coast home by his jockey with little or no use of the whip. The change in tactics here were no doubt prompted by the fact that he'd run clunkers the two previous times he'd run in races against pacemakers. Unfortunately by avoiding a tussle with Frankel's pacemaker early on here Worthadd was left with significant ground to make up. This forced his jockey Frankie Dettori to resort to much more vigorous use of the whip. Worthadd didn't seem to like that at all.
Worthadd is obviously a tricky ride. But Frankie Dettori is a genius at slowing the pace down from the front on a horse like this. His other rider Mirco Demuro showed what a brilliant judge of pace he is with that brilliant tactical ride that secured victory for Victoire Pisa in the 2010 Dubai World Cup. This being so I reckon Worthadd can still gain that elusive Group 1 win. His long term target, the Woodbine Mile, looks a smart one, as the pace of North American turf racing is slower than it is in Europe. Dettori or Demuro could easily ride their rivals to sleep with a front running ride on Worthadd in that race.
MOST IMPROVED HAS A GREAT SHOT IN SUSSEX WITHOUT FRANKEL
We've finally got a decent three year old miler following the success of MOST IMPROVED (41) in the St James's Palace Stakes. Keiren Fallon made a bold move to kick on entering the straight on Brian Meehan's charge and the colt was never in real danger of getting caught by the strong finishers in the closing stages.
Most Improved was the only horse that chased the strong early pace to get involved in the finish. So my suspicion is that he could actually have run a slightly faster time if the Coolmore pacemakers hadn't pulled him along at such a fast clip early.
Meehan nominated the Sussex Stakes as Most Improved's next target. This looks a good idea if the stats are anything to go by.
If Bahri, Starborough and Excellent Art had won instead of getting beat less than a length into second eight of the last eleven winners of the St James's Palace Stakes to run in the Sussex as three year olds would have won.
Runner up HERMIVAL (40) stayed on strongly at the finish, just as he had when encountering a similarly strong pace in the Prix Djebel and 2000 Guineas. I continue to think he'll stay ten furlongs.
Third placed GREGORIAN (40) didn't look great in the last furlong or so as the second, fourth and fifth were finishing so much stronger.
Gregorian has yet to win beyond seven furlongs. But this run and his half length fifth in the Poulains do show that this speedily bred colt lasts a mile, if only just. He's probably not going to prove good enough to beat older horses in Group 1 company. So his best chance of success at the top level looks to be the Prix Jean Prat against his own age group on July the first.
The strong pace seemed to bring out the stamina in BORN TO SEA (39) who finished strongly to run a close fourth after taking a bump around halfway.
Born To Sea's dam won the Arc. And only one of her eight other foals failed to show smart form over a mile and a half . This was My Typhoon who ran in America where only 0.6% of races are longer than nine furlongs.
Born To Sea's sire Invincible Spirit was a sprinter and tends to get horses that stay ten furlongs or less. But he's also produced Lawman who won the Prix du Jockey Club over ten and a half furlongs, Allied Power who has won a twelve furlong Group 2 and Spirit of Adjisa who won the two and a half mile Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.
In the circumstances and seeing how strongly he finished I can't knock the idea of running Born To Sea in the Irish Derby.
Supplementary entry GABRIAL (37) stayed on strongly to take fifth. This big, handsome rangy colt impressed me as a future middle distance pattern winner when scoring at Haydock. I can't wait to see him over ten furlongs or more.
DAWN APPROACH SHOULD STAY LONGER
The days it invariably takes a Group 1 performance to win the Coventry. That was certainly the case this year when DAWN APPROACH (38) took Royal Ascot's top two year old race.
I've previously knocked Dawn Approach for showing little speed or acceleration. But this performance strongly suggests that's simply because he wants a longer distance than he's had the chance to run so far.
Dawn Approach is a strong, quite rangy sort that's built and bred to stay a mile, perhaps more. He looked as though he might struggle with a quarter mile left but his obvious stamina came into play and he kept on finding to score.
Trainer Jim Bolger nominated the Futurity, National and Dewhurst Stakes as the potential objectives for Dawn Approach. It could well be that one or two youngsters prove better than him by the end of the season, but he's surely go a very good chance of taking a Group 1.
Runner up OLYMPIC GLORY (37) picked up strongly in the closing stages. I imagine he'll be tried over seven furlongs later on. Meanwhile the Prix Morny and Mill Reef Stakes look obvious targets, though he'd be up against the seriously smart penny's Picnic in the French race.
Third placed CRISTOFORO COLOMBO (37) was not helped by being isolated in the centre of the course once he broke away from his pursuers and started to go after the winner. He's a classy looking sort and a good mover, so I suspect he wasn't well suited by the yielding ground. His dam was a dirt sprinter. His sire appeared best on fast ground too and ran second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He'd be a decent contender for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. Other good targets would be the Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park.
SO YOU THINK NO PUSHOVER FOR FRANKEL IN ECLIPSE
SO YOU THINK (43) showed yet again that he is a seriously good horse around ten furlongs on turf with an impressive win in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. He shrugged off what initially looked like a serious challenge by the runner up to score by over two lengths. The Coolmore horse has now won twelve of the fourteen times he's run 9-10.5f on turf and finished a close second in both his losses.
I would not dismiss So You Think's chances of beating Frankel in the Eclipse. After all he's now won ten Group 1 races while running seriously fast times. If the longer distance or having to negotiate a turn sets Frankel back any significant amount So You Think could pull off an upset win at Sandown.
CARLTON HOUSE (41) momentarily looked as if he was going to give the Queen a Group 1 winner when laying down a strong challenge before the furlong pole but was quite readily put in his place by the winner. He's clearly a very decent horse at what now seems his optimum trip of ten furlongs.
Third placed FARHH (41) finished like a train after a slow start and meeting some traffic. It looks like he'll stay a mile and a half just like his dam did on this showing.
RELIABLE MAN (41) also finished very strongly. Once more I got the impression that he'll do better when stepped back up to a mile and a half.
SEA MOON THE ONE TO BEAT IN KING GEORGE
In the last half century seven horses have won the Hardwicke Stakes by more than three lengths. All of them went on to reach the first three in the King George the next month. And if Rheingold, Ortis and Miralgo hadn't come up against all time greats Dahlia, Mill Reef and Ragusa in the big race when finishing second five of the seven would have won.
SEA MOON (43) won the latest renewal of the Hardwicke Stakes by three and a quarter lengths in a time that would win most runnings of the King George. He picked up really well to quickly storm past his rivals into a big lead around a furlong out and was never in dagger from the runner up's late charge.
I had thought that Sea Moon lacked the acceleration to win a Group 1 over a middle distance. But this run proved me wrong. With St Nicholas Abbey looking suspect on a right handed tack and Cirrus Des Aigles meeting with a setback, it looks pretty clear that Sea Moon is now the one they all have to beat in the King George.
Runner up DUNADEN (41) put up a remarkable performance to storm through from the back and close in on the winner rapidly despite getting blocked for a run and then squeezed out.
Dunaden seems best in big, competitive fields that generate a strong pace. Small fields and tactically run races don't bring his stamina into play. He scored a remarkable international hat trick last year taking the Geelong and Melbourne Cups in Australia followed by the Hong Kong Vase. The likely small field in the King George won't suit him but he's not without a shot in the Arc and must have a real chance of winning the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase again.
RED CADEAUX (40) was made to look rather one paced by the first two but beat the rest of the big field by a decent margin. He's now placed in British, Irish, Australian and Hong Kong Group 1 races and rarely runs a bad race. He's been beaten by Dunaden the last three times the pair have met but is suited to the same types of races.
PRINCESS HIGHWAY NO CERT FOR THE IRISH OAKS
Since Sleeping Partner pulled off the Oaks-Ribblesdale double back in 1969 only Bahr has managed to reach the first three in the Oaks, finishing within ten lengths of the winner, and gone on to take the Royal Ascot race.
This being so I'd take the wide margin losses of the Oaks second, third and fourth to PRINCESS HIGHWAY (38) in this year's Ribblesdale with a pinch of salt . Dermot Weld's filly had a big edge in freshness over them, having skipped the Oaks.
Nonetheless it was impressive how Princess Highway ran away from her rivals to score by six lengths. Clearly she's a useful filly, just as her two previous wins suggested.
I wouldn't go running away with the idea that this run makes Princess Highway a cert for the Irish Oaks as she will be facing the same disadvantage of lack of freshness that her main rivals had at Ascot.
The last ten Ribblesdale winners to run in the Irish Oaks have all lost. This contrasts sharply with the record of Epsom Oaks winners in the Irish race.
Twenty one winners of the Oaks have gone on to run in the Irish Oaks and twelve of them have scored, as you can see from their record below:
2011 DANCING RAIN FIFTH
2010 SNOW FAIRY WON
2009 SARISKA WON
2007 LIGHT SHIFT Second
2006 ALEXANDROVA WON
2004 OUIJA BOARD WON
2003 CASUAL LOOK Third
1999 RAMRUMA WON
1996 LADY CARLA Fourth
1993 INTREPIDITY Fourth
1992 USER FRIENDLY WON
1991 JET SKI LADY Second
1989 ALIYSA Second
1988 DIMINUENDO WON
1987 UNITE WON
1984 CIRCUS PLUME Second
1981 BLUE WIND WON
1978 FAIR SALINIA WON
1975 JULIETTE MARNY WON
1973 MYSTERIOUS Second
1971 ALTESSE ROYALE WON
Was won the Oaks this year and has been rested to stay fresh for the attempt at the double. I know Princess Highway beat Was in the Blue Wind Stakes. But the stats persuade me that the O'Brien filly will be able to turn that form around at the Curragh thanks to her edge in freshness.
Official race distances in both Britain and Ireland are inaccurate. Worse still they vary from one meeting to another due to rail movements. This makes it impossible to produce accurate speed ratings with normal methods based on standard times. Sectional times are the only practical option as they allow you to compare how fast horses have run over the same section of ground in races of different distances.
This being so I am once more extremely grateful to Turftrax and Qipco for providing sectional times at Royal Ascot last week. I wish we could have them for every meeting.
In recent years punters have drifted away from horse racing to other betting mediums where the basic published information can be trusted. Sectional times would provide a very good way of countering this trend. Without them and other official data that's published elsewhere punters are surely going to ask themselves why they should bother to analyse British and Irish races when racing officials aren't prepared to.
FRANKEL DOES IT AGAIN
I have a theoretical maximum rating of 47 that I can award using my methods. For the second time in a row FRANKEL (47) turned the theoretical into reality when running astonishingly fast to take the Queen Anne Stakes by a monstrous eleven lengths.
You all saw what he did and have read how highly everyone rates his performance so I will not dwell on it. The only new thing I have to add is that I measured his stride during the fastest part of the race and found it to be 26 feet and nine inches. This is significantly longer that the stride length I obtained by counting Frankel's strides over the last five furlongs of the Lockinge. However subsequent research has told me that horses' strides are longest when they're travelling at top speed and cannot be sustained for five furlongs.
It seems abundantly clear from his physique and pedigree that Frankel will have no trouble lasting the ten furlongs of the Eclipse Stakes. He will face a stiffer test there against So You Think. Coolmore's ex-Australian star routinely runs just four lengths a mile slower than Frankel on my ratings and specialises over the ten furlongs of the Eclipse.
Any reduction in the level Frankel's performance at Sandown caused by the extra distance or by running around a turn could put his unbeaten record in danger. It might therefore be wiser to run him in the Juddmonte International at York where the turn isn't as tight and the homestraight is a little longer and not uphill. In addition the opposition at York may well be a bit weaker.
Most likely Frankel will get through the next three months without being beaten. The real test will come if his connections opt to tackle the Champion Stakes rather than the QEII at Ascot on what I presume will be his final start in October.
I still suspect that the reason Frankel came close to defeat in the St James's Palace Stakes was that it was the only time he's run in Group 1 company around a track with a short homestraight. His chief asset is his huge stride and he can't use it fully except on a straight course or one with a long homestraight.
It was interesting to hear trainer Henry Cecil say after the Queen Anne that he had still to choose between the QEII and the Champion Stakes for the last race of Frankel's campaign. As a punter I have to say I'm hoping he goes for the longer race with the short homestraight. But as a racing fan I'd like to see him bow out with another imperious win on a straight course in the QEII.
When a horse dominates their opposition as much as Frankel did here, especially if there is cut in the ground, the lengths between runners are often amplified. My ratings suggest it's best to assume that this caused the beaten lengths to be half as big again in this race.
The connections of runner up EXCELEBRATION (41) hardly need reminding of how dominant Frankel can be. Their horse paid the price for trying to make a race of it with the champion. He has now won six of his last eleven races, finished second to Frankel in four others and third to him at this meeting last year.
If he were mine I'd be resting Excelebration soon to keep him fresh for an Autumn campaign in America. He showed that he should handle the tight tracks and sprint finishes of US turf racing when romping away with the German Guineas. So I'd say the Shadwell Turf Mile and Breeders' Cup Mile offer his best chance of Group 1 success this season. His trainer Aidan O'Brien has already won the first named race twice from just five runners while success in the Breeders Cup Mile would boost his stud value far more than any European win could.
Third placed SIDE GLANCE (41) ran a close fourth in last year's Woodbine Mile and again showed he's not far off Group 1 class here. His record shows that he's won six of the seven times he's run seven furlongs or more below Group 1 class off a break less than five weeks. Next time he meets those circumstances he'll be hard to beat.
German raider INDOMITO (39) often runs into traffic problems in big fields around a turn. So it makes sense that he'd do well on a straight course. If a couple of close finishes had gone his way he would have won three of the last four times he's run in single figure fields and finished second to the top class Musir in Europe's most valuable mile race where the winner ran seriously fast. He's entered in the Group 2 Meilen Trophy at Hannover next month. That track clearly suits him as he's won both times he run there to date.
Further back in the field STRONG SUIT (34) seemed to show once more that he doesn't like cut in the ground or distances longer than seven furlongs. He has the ability to win a Group 1 and needs to take one to secure his value as a stallion. But the only European Group 1 over his specialist trip of seven furlongs is the Prix de la Foret, a race that is run on ground softer than good too often to make it his main target. The logical alternative is the Prix Maurice de Gheest over half a furlong less.
WORTHADD (33) moved well in fifth place for a long way and improved to fourth with two furlongs left. But stopped to nothing in the closing stages to finish last.
In almost all his previous starts Worthadd had led or run second in the early stages. In his wins he's led quite some way from the finish and been allowed to pretty much coast home by his jockey with little or no use of the whip. The change in tactics here were no doubt prompted by the fact that he'd run clunkers the two previous times he'd run in races against pacemakers. Unfortunately by avoiding a tussle with Frankel's pacemaker early on here Worthadd was left with significant ground to make up. This forced his jockey Frankie Dettori to resort to much more vigorous use of the whip. Worthadd didn't seem to like that at all.
Worthadd is obviously a tricky ride. But Frankie Dettori is a genius at slowing the pace down from the front on a horse like this. His other rider Mirco Demuro showed what a brilliant judge of pace he is with that brilliant tactical ride that secured victory for Victoire Pisa in the 2010 Dubai World Cup. This being so I reckon Worthadd can still gain that elusive Group 1 win. His long term target, the Woodbine Mile, looks a smart one, as the pace of North American turf racing is slower than it is in Europe. Dettori or Demuro could easily ride their rivals to sleep with a front running ride on Worthadd in that race.
MOST IMPROVED HAS A GREAT SHOT IN SUSSEX WITHOUT FRANKEL
We've finally got a decent three year old miler following the success of MOST IMPROVED (41) in the St James's Palace Stakes. Keiren Fallon made a bold move to kick on entering the straight on Brian Meehan's charge and the colt was never in real danger of getting caught by the strong finishers in the closing stages.
Most Improved was the only horse that chased the strong early pace to get involved in the finish. So my suspicion is that he could actually have run a slightly faster time if the Coolmore pacemakers hadn't pulled him along at such a fast clip early.
Meehan nominated the Sussex Stakes as Most Improved's next target. This looks a good idea if the stats are anything to go by.
If Bahri, Starborough and Excellent Art had won instead of getting beat less than a length into second eight of the last eleven winners of the St James's Palace Stakes to run in the Sussex as three year olds would have won.
Runner up HERMIVAL (40) stayed on strongly at the finish, just as he had when encountering a similarly strong pace in the Prix Djebel and 2000 Guineas. I continue to think he'll stay ten furlongs.
Third placed GREGORIAN (40) didn't look great in the last furlong or so as the second, fourth and fifth were finishing so much stronger.
Gregorian has yet to win beyond seven furlongs. But this run and his half length fifth in the Poulains do show that this speedily bred colt lasts a mile, if only just. He's probably not going to prove good enough to beat older horses in Group 1 company. So his best chance of success at the top level looks to be the Prix Jean Prat against his own age group on July the first.
The strong pace seemed to bring out the stamina in BORN TO SEA (39) who finished strongly to run a close fourth after taking a bump around halfway.
Born To Sea's dam won the Arc. And only one of her eight other foals failed to show smart form over a mile and a half . This was My Typhoon who ran in America where only 0.6% of races are longer than nine furlongs.
Born To Sea's sire Invincible Spirit was a sprinter and tends to get horses that stay ten furlongs or less. But he's also produced Lawman who won the Prix du Jockey Club over ten and a half furlongs, Allied Power who has won a twelve furlong Group 2 and Spirit of Adjisa who won the two and a half mile Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown.
In the circumstances and seeing how strongly he finished I can't knock the idea of running Born To Sea in the Irish Derby.
Supplementary entry GABRIAL (37) stayed on strongly to take fifth. This big, handsome rangy colt impressed me as a future middle distance pattern winner when scoring at Haydock. I can't wait to see him over ten furlongs or more.
DAWN APPROACH SHOULD STAY LONGER
The days it invariably takes a Group 1 performance to win the Coventry. That was certainly the case this year when DAWN APPROACH (38) took Royal Ascot's top two year old race.
I've previously knocked Dawn Approach for showing little speed or acceleration. But this performance strongly suggests that's simply because he wants a longer distance than he's had the chance to run so far.
Dawn Approach is a strong, quite rangy sort that's built and bred to stay a mile, perhaps more. He looked as though he might struggle with a quarter mile left but his obvious stamina came into play and he kept on finding to score.
Trainer Jim Bolger nominated the Futurity, National and Dewhurst Stakes as the potential objectives for Dawn Approach. It could well be that one or two youngsters prove better than him by the end of the season, but he's surely go a very good chance of taking a Group 1.
Runner up OLYMPIC GLORY (37) picked up strongly in the closing stages. I imagine he'll be tried over seven furlongs later on. Meanwhile the Prix Morny and Mill Reef Stakes look obvious targets, though he'd be up against the seriously smart penny's Picnic in the French race.
Third placed CRISTOFORO COLOMBO (37) was not helped by being isolated in the centre of the course once he broke away from his pursuers and started to go after the winner. He's a classy looking sort and a good mover, so I suspect he wasn't well suited by the yielding ground. His dam was a dirt sprinter. His sire appeared best on fast ground too and ran second in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He'd be a decent contender for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. Other good targets would be the Phoenix Stakes, Prix Morny and Middle Park.
SO YOU THINK NO PUSHOVER FOR FRANKEL IN ECLIPSE
SO YOU THINK (43) showed yet again that he is a seriously good horse around ten furlongs on turf with an impressive win in the Prince Of Wales Stakes. He shrugged off what initially looked like a serious challenge by the runner up to score by over two lengths. The Coolmore horse has now won twelve of the fourteen times he's run 9-10.5f on turf and finished a close second in both his losses.
I would not dismiss So You Think's chances of beating Frankel in the Eclipse. After all he's now won ten Group 1 races while running seriously fast times. If the longer distance or having to negotiate a turn sets Frankel back any significant amount So You Think could pull off an upset win at Sandown.
CARLTON HOUSE (41) momentarily looked as if he was going to give the Queen a Group 1 winner when laying down a strong challenge before the furlong pole but was quite readily put in his place by the winner. He's clearly a very decent horse at what now seems his optimum trip of ten furlongs.
Third placed FARHH (41) finished like a train after a slow start and meeting some traffic. It looks like he'll stay a mile and a half just like his dam did on this showing.
RELIABLE MAN (41) also finished very strongly. Once more I got the impression that he'll do better when stepped back up to a mile and a half.
SEA MOON THE ONE TO BEAT IN KING GEORGE
In the last half century seven horses have won the Hardwicke Stakes by more than three lengths. All of them went on to reach the first three in the King George the next month. And if Rheingold, Ortis and Miralgo hadn't come up against all time greats Dahlia, Mill Reef and Ragusa in the big race when finishing second five of the seven would have won.
SEA MOON (43) won the latest renewal of the Hardwicke Stakes by three and a quarter lengths in a time that would win most runnings of the King George. He picked up really well to quickly storm past his rivals into a big lead around a furlong out and was never in dagger from the runner up's late charge.
I had thought that Sea Moon lacked the acceleration to win a Group 1 over a middle distance. But this run proved me wrong. With St Nicholas Abbey looking suspect on a right handed tack and Cirrus Des Aigles meeting with a setback, it looks pretty clear that Sea Moon is now the one they all have to beat in the King George.
Runner up DUNADEN (41) put up a remarkable performance to storm through from the back and close in on the winner rapidly despite getting blocked for a run and then squeezed out.
Dunaden seems best in big, competitive fields that generate a strong pace. Small fields and tactically run races don't bring his stamina into play. He scored a remarkable international hat trick last year taking the Geelong and Melbourne Cups in Australia followed by the Hong Kong Vase. The likely small field in the King George won't suit him but he's not without a shot in the Arc and must have a real chance of winning the Melbourne Cup and Hong Kong Vase again.
RED CADEAUX (40) was made to look rather one paced by the first two but beat the rest of the big field by a decent margin. He's now placed in British, Irish, Australian and Hong Kong Group 1 races and rarely runs a bad race. He's been beaten by Dunaden the last three times the pair have met but is suited to the same types of races.
PRINCESS HIGHWAY NO CERT FOR THE IRISH OAKS
Since Sleeping Partner pulled off the Oaks-Ribblesdale double back in 1969 only Bahr has managed to reach the first three in the Oaks, finishing within ten lengths of the winner, and gone on to take the Royal Ascot race.
This being so I'd take the wide margin losses of the Oaks second, third and fourth to PRINCESS HIGHWAY (38) in this year's Ribblesdale with a pinch of salt . Dermot Weld's filly had a big edge in freshness over them, having skipped the Oaks.
Nonetheless it was impressive how Princess Highway ran away from her rivals to score by six lengths. Clearly she's a useful filly, just as her two previous wins suggested.
I wouldn't go running away with the idea that this run makes Princess Highway a cert for the Irish Oaks as she will be facing the same disadvantage of lack of freshness that her main rivals had at Ascot.
The last ten Ribblesdale winners to run in the Irish Oaks have all lost. This contrasts sharply with the record of Epsom Oaks winners in the Irish race.
Twenty one winners of the Oaks have gone on to run in the Irish Oaks and twelve of them have scored, as you can see from their record below:
2011 DANCING RAIN FIFTH
2010 SNOW FAIRY WON
2009 SARISKA WON
2007 LIGHT SHIFT Second
2006 ALEXANDROVA WON
2004 OUIJA BOARD WON
2003 CASUAL LOOK Third
1999 RAMRUMA WON
1996 LADY CARLA Fourth
1993 INTREPIDITY Fourth
1992 USER FRIENDLY WON
1991 JET SKI LADY Second
1989 ALIYSA Second
1988 DIMINUENDO WON
1987 UNITE WON
1984 CIRCUS PLUME Second
1981 BLUE WIND WON
1978 FAIR SALINIA WON
1975 JULIETTE MARNY WON
1973 MYSTERIOUS Second
1971 ALTESSE ROYALE WON
Was won the Oaks this year and has been rested to stay fresh for the attempt at the double. I know Princess Highway beat Was in the Blue Wind Stakes. But the stats persuade me that the O'Brien filly will be able to turn that form around at the Curragh thanks to her edge in freshness.
EC1
On a break
he's making me laugh a bit with his ratings
his G1 figure is about 42...and yet he has Excelebration running a 41..a figure that is probably the best Mordin has ever given him
we know virtually for sure that Excelebration ran at least 10lb below his best..possibly more
doesn't add up in any way shape or form really
his G1 figure is about 42...and yet he has Excelebration running a 41..a figure that is probably the best Mordin has ever given him
we know virtually for sure that Excelebration ran at least 10lb below his best..possibly more
doesn't add up in any way shape or form really
Colin Phillips
At the Start
AREA FIFTY ONE BETTER THAN A HANDICAPPER
AREA FIFTY ONE (38) clocked a Group class time to win a good ten furlong handicap at Newmarket. He jumped well and led briefly then took a slight bump when habitual front runner Classic Punch ran across him and took the lead. He raced in second thereafter till taking the lead over a quarter of a mile from the finish. Then he really started to clear away when meeting the rising ground in the final furlong.
Area Fifty One has obviously improved for being gelded and must have a serious chance in the John Smith's Cup as long as he gets the fast ground his connections say he needs. My only concern is that he has rather an odd, paddling stride pattern in which his front legs splay out slightly from each other. This makes him rather one paced. Then again the early pace is usually so strong in the big York race that this may not matter.
ST LEGER DISTANCE NOW LOOKS TOO FAR FOR CAMELOT
When a horse rolls around in the closing stages as CAMELOT (40) did in winning the Irish Derby it's a sure sign that they're very tired.
Sectional times confirm this. Camelot took 2.9 seconds longer to run the last three furlongs than they went in the one mile Listed race earlier on the card. This equates to 1.6 seconds slower when you adjust for the different distance of the two races. He was also 1.4 seconds slower over the last three furlongs than Hartani managed in the longer Curragh Cup off a strong early pace the next day on what I rated identical ground. That works out as 1.7 seconds slower when you adjust for the different distance of the races.
Camelot has won the first two legs of the British Triple Crown and is long odds on to take the third, the St Leger. But following this performance I'm now thinking there's a reason why no horse has won the British Triple Crown since Nijinsky back in 1970. I think it's the same reason no horse has won the American Triple Crown since Secretariat did so in 1973.
The reason is that the thoroughbred now has less stamina than was the case fourty years ago.
This is nothing new. The thoroughbred has been improved by selectively breeding for ever more speed since horse racing first began. That's why the average times they clock over a mile or less have become faster with each passing decade. However each measure of improvement in average times over shorter distances has resulted in slower times over distances of ten furlongs or more. That's what my research and that of every other person who has studied this field has shown.
I now think we've reached the point where a horse that has the speed needed to win the Guineas is most unlikely to have the stamina required to win the St Leger.
You could argue that no horse has actually attempted to win the British Triple Crown since Nijinsky. You could also argue that the fact eleven horses have failed in the Triple Crown attempt since Secretariat is irrelevant. After all in America the shortest race in the Triple Crown is nine and a half furlongs and the longest only twelve.
The trouble with this arguement is that to qualify for the first leg of the American Triple Crown a horse has to win a lot of prize money over nine furlongs or less to make the field. In addition dirt is a more slippery and therefore more taxing surface than dirt. So a mile and a half on dirt requires a lot more stamina than a mile and a half on turf.
I don't buy the excuse put forward by Camelot's trainer Aidan O'Brien that "he absolutely hated the ground". If this is the case then how come Camelot was able to win the 2000 Guineas on ground so slow it produced a winning time 3.21 seconds slower than any other 2000 Guineas winner in the last 24 years?
As I see it Camelot was tiring so badly at the end of the Irish Derby because he was running out of stamina. This is the obvious reason and it is not surprising when you look at his pedigree.
Camelot's dam Tarfah won five times at nine furlongs or less but didn't quite get home the only time she was run over ten furlongs. Her only other foal to race has been Ideal who scored her only win over ten furlongs but weakened to run unplaced the four times she was asked to go longer distances. And Ideal was by Galileo, a very strong influence for stamina and a sire whose first claim to fame was that he sired the first three past the post in the St Leger from his first crop.
Aidan O'Brien said after the Irish Derby that he planned on giving Camelot a lengthy break. This sounds very sensible to me. My studies suggest that when a horse has a really hard race over a mile and a half or more it takes a rest of at least ten weeks before you can be sure it has recovered. That means there's enough time to safely take in the St Leger with Camelot as long as he doesn't have a prep race. But personally, if he were mine, I'd be skipping the St Leger and steering Camelot towards the Arc via the Prix Niel.
The Arc looks set to be a really hard race to win this year, but I think Camelot has a better chance of taking it than the St Leger.
Due to tiring Camelot ran about three lengths a mile below the form he showed at Epsom by my estimates. This enabled runner up BORN TO SEA (39) to mount a serious challenge in the closing stages. He was carried left by the winner as that one wandered but was never quite going to get by.
It now seems clear that Born To Sea is best suited by middle distances, just like his dam and his seven siblings that raced in Europe. At this stage it looks like he's a smidge off Group 1 class. But this was his first try over the right type of distance and the ground was really slow, so I'm going to withhold judgement on just how good he could be for now.
Third placed LIGHT HEAVY (33) ran below his best. His trainer had expressed concerns about running him on soft ground and it seems very likely that this is what found him out. Back on a faster surface he may yet prove up to Group 1 standard.
AKEED MOFEED (28) caught my eye on his first start of the year. He improved from second to take the lead rounding the home turn and was moving rather well briefly at the three furlong mark before tiring
Akeed Mofeed went lame before his seasonal debut and missed the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, 2000 Guineas, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, Derby and most recently the Irish 2000 Guineas. So clearly there are still concerns about his soundness. But he looked awfully good as a two year old. My suspicion is that on faster ground and fully fit he would have run a big race here.
The dismal run by Derby third ASTROLOGY (6) can probably be explained by a statistic. This is that over the last sixteen years 99 horses have contested British or Irish Group 1 races over twelve furlongs or more that also ran twelve furlongs or more in their last race sixteen days ago or less. All 99 lost. The implication is that Astrology was still suffering from the after effects of his taxing race at Royal Ascot.
Astrology is a quirky horse but is clearly smart when fresh. That is on his first two runs of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. He's won the Chester Vase by eleven lengths and finished third in the Derby in these circumstances.
If he's given a decent break and not used simply as a pacemaker I can see Astrology doing well in future.
HARTANI HAS A BIG CHANCE OF WINNING A LEGER
Most people would agree with the idea that we probably saw the St Leger winner at the Curragh last weekend. But they'd be talking about Camelot.
Personally I reckon that if a St Leger winner did run at the Curragh last weekend it will prove to have been HARTANI (40). Though I concede it may well be the Irish St Leger that he will win rather than the original version at Doncaster.
Hartani impressed me with the way he won the Curragh Cup in seriously good time. He looked to be in trouble two furlongs out when runner up Midnight Soprano ranged up to him while still cruising. But he saw her off and then proceeded to clear away to score by almost six lengths by keeping up a relentless gallop all the way to the line.
In the past I would have knocked Hartani as a candidate for the St Leger at Doncaster on the grounds that for twenty years no Leger winner ran beyond a mile and a half before taking the big race. However two of the last three St Leger winners have defied that statistic, so I think it's no longer relevant. Genuine proven stamina now seems to be a real plus at Doncaster.
Hartani has now won all three times he's run longer distances. He was moving so strongly at the end of this race that I feel he's likely to be capable of making the small amount of improvement needed to take a Group 1 race.
Trainer John Oxx says that Hartani will be supplemented for both the British and Irish St Legers but is more likely to go for the Irish race due to his apparent preference for softer ground.
Runner up MIDNIGHT SOPRANO (37) was bidding for her sixth win in a row. She cruised up to the winner with two furlongs to run, moving so well she dropped to three to one on in running. But Hartani just kept on rolling and she ran out of gas.
It could be that Midnight Soprano doesn't quite get a mile and three quarters in a strongly run race on heavy ground. If that's the case then she should be able to improve a little on this effort when cut back to a mile and a half for the Group 3 Give Thanks Stakes at Cork next month.
FAMOUS NAME MAY FINALLY BE ABOUT TO WIN THAT GROUP 1
After he'd run second by a head in the Prix du Jockey Club on only his fifth lifetime start it looked like it was simply a mater of time before FAMOUS NAME (41) won a Group 1. But that was back in 2008 and Famous Name has no lost thirteen times out of thirteen when he's run in races higher than Group 3 class.
What makes this amazing is that following his win in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh last weekend Famous Name has now won the last fourteen times he has run below Group 2 class.
Famous Name won in such good style and clocked such a good time at the Curragh that I'm inclined to think he may finally be about to win that elusive Group 1 when he returns to Germany for the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at the end of the month.
The front running tactics adopted on the runner up DEFINING YEAR (38) seem to suit him. He'd run a half length second to the useful Sharestan the first time they were tried. Now he's gone and run second to Famous Name with the rest of the field well beaten off.
It looks like Defining Year needs soft ground to counteract his lack of acceleration. But when he gets it I can readily see him winning a Listed or Group 3 from the front.
IZZI TOP STARTS TO LOOK A LITTLE VULNERABLE
I suggested after her last start that IZZI TOP (39) was probably the best middle distance filly in Britain right now. Her win in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh validates this idea. She did the smart runner up Sapphire for a turn of foot to win comfortably.
The concern I have is that Izzi Top keeps hitting the same sort of rating around 38 or 39. That is certainly Group 1 for a filly. But there are a whole bunch of fillies in France right now that can run faster on my ratings - namely Giofra, Galikova, Golden Lilac, Ridasiyna, Shareta, Solemia and Valyra. My thinking after watching this run is that at least six of the seven could beat Izzi Top.
Runner up SAPPHIRE (38) suffered her first loss in five tries on soft ground. It seems likely that the cut back to ten furlongs was the cause. She'd been most impressive when winning over a mile and a half on her previous start, while earning the top rating I've given a British or Irish filly all season. I'm still not convinced she needs soft ground. I suspect it's simply a test of stamina that she requires. This being so I'd like to see her take up her entry in the Irish St Leger.
I'M A DREAMER (38) had run her best ever race the only previous time she'd encountered cut in the ground beyond a mile when a head second in the E P Taylor Stakes. She ran just as well here to keep on strong and go under by less than two lengths. It's going to be tough for her to win a Group 1 given the strong competition that's around this year. But her seeming preference for ten furlongs and softer ground suggests her best shot of doing so will come in either the E P Taylor or the Premio Lydia Tesio at the end of the season.
THE UNITED STATES AND DIBIYANI ARE SMART TWO YEAR OLDS
The seven furlong 2YO maiden at the Curragh last Sunday was a very good contest.
Runner up DIBAYANI (36) took the field along at an ordinary pace early on, clocking a time 1.9 seconds slower to the three furlong pole than older handicappers managed over the same course and distance in the next race. However he and his pursuers picked up really strongly from there to get home 1.6 seconds faster than the older horses over the last three furlongs. When I adjust my speed ratings to reflect this it suggests Group class performances by the first two.
Dibayani still looks a little weak and immature up front but kept on really well when the winner tackled him and only just went under. He's built and bred to be a smart middle distance performer next season. Meanwhile I think he can win in Group company over seven furlongs or more as a two year old.
The winner THE UNITED STATES (36) is a much bigger and more mature horse, being good-bodied and muscular. He was always moving well but ran green and drifted across to the far rail to join the runner up when asked to challenge him. It looked like he'd have been able to produce more if he'd been more focused.
I see no reason why The United States shouldn't stay a mile. Though he's so darned big I'm not sure he'll get further. He too ought to be able to win in Group company and might just be a Group 1 horse if he can improve on this.
The winner's stablemate NEVIS (30) is built and bred for ten to twelve furlongs. He stayed on well through the closing stages despite colliding with his other stablemate a furlong and a half out and only being ridden hands and heels.
VINSON MASSIF (23) is another future middle distance sort. And he's a good mover, so I doubt that he liked the heavy ground. Nonetheless he moved up nicely when asked to pick up down the wide outside till taking a hefty bump from Nevis. His rider allowed him to come home in his own time over the last half furlong so I'm sure he'll prove a lot better than this. He's certainly a very good looking horse.
RIDASIYNA THE ONE TO BEAT IN NASSAU STAKES
At first glance the time RIDASIYNA (40) clocked winning the Prix Chloe looks impossibly fast. She ran the 1800 metres at a faster rate per furlong than Aesop's Fable managed in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat over 1600 metres on the same card.
Closer inspection of the videos and sectional times shows that the distance of the Prix Chloe was actually a bit shy of the advertised 1800 metres. Nonetheless by playing around with the embedded timer in the video and freeze framing it at the same point I was able to work out that Ridasiyna covered the last seven and a half furlongs in 92.38 seconds compared with the 91.49 seconds take by Aesop's Fable. When I adjust for the longer distance she ran that makes her run of equal merit, which is quite something.
Ridasiyna is bred to get a mile and a half and has already won over eleven furlongs. But her pacemaker did a tremendous job, setting a scorching gallop that set the race up for her.
Ridasiyna lobbed along in third and fourth position, took just a little while to get stoked up but then blew on by the leaders to win comfortably.
Mikael Delzangles said after the race "She confirmed what she showed last time and she really has some talent. Now the program gets a little bit more difficult, so we will take our time to decide, but the Nassau Stakes. [at Goodwood Aug. 4] and Beverly D. [at Arlington Aug. 13] are possibilities."
The obvious choice of the two races Delzangles nominated has to be the Nassau Stakes. Given her obvious stamina, the stronger pace and much longer homestraight of the British race makes it look much more suitable.
I certainly approve of the idea of travelling with Ridasiyna. There are now so many smart middle distance fillies in France this season that running anywhere else has to be smart.
MASHOORA THE ONE TO BEAT IN MAURICE DE GHEEST
MASHOORA (40) put up a very good performance to win the Group 3 Prix de la Porte Maillot at Longchamp. She picked up strongly to catch the front running Shamalgan and was going away rapidly at the finish.
I rated this the joint best performance by a 3YO filly all season. Clearly Mashoora is very smart.
Mashoora's connections now face a choice between the Prix Maurice de Gheest over six and a half furlongs or the Prix Rothschild over a mile.
For me the choice looks pretty simple. Mashoora might well have won all four times she's run less than a mile but for pulling hard when second to subsequent Group 1 winner Elusive Kate. She clearly didn't quite get the mile in mud in the Guineas and has been beaten into second by rivals she should have been able to beat in her other two starts over a mile.
The Prix de la Porte Maillot was run over the 1400 metre course at Longchamp which is actually about fourty yards shy of seven furlongs. A good deal of the distance is downhill too, hence the track record of just 1m 17.4 seconds. That makes it a good prep for the Maurice de Gheest.
Runner up SHAMALGAN (39) has some smart form to his name. He ran third in the French Guineas in 2010 and won Germany's top mile race from the high class Alianthus last year.
Shamalgan has won the last four times he's run on tight courses. But he lasted home around a more galloping track here, presumably due to the cut back in distance.
AREA FIFTY ONE (38) clocked a Group class time to win a good ten furlong handicap at Newmarket. He jumped well and led briefly then took a slight bump when habitual front runner Classic Punch ran across him and took the lead. He raced in second thereafter till taking the lead over a quarter of a mile from the finish. Then he really started to clear away when meeting the rising ground in the final furlong.
Area Fifty One has obviously improved for being gelded and must have a serious chance in the John Smith's Cup as long as he gets the fast ground his connections say he needs. My only concern is that he has rather an odd, paddling stride pattern in which his front legs splay out slightly from each other. This makes him rather one paced. Then again the early pace is usually so strong in the big York race that this may not matter.
ST LEGER DISTANCE NOW LOOKS TOO FAR FOR CAMELOT
When a horse rolls around in the closing stages as CAMELOT (40) did in winning the Irish Derby it's a sure sign that they're very tired.
Sectional times confirm this. Camelot took 2.9 seconds longer to run the last three furlongs than they went in the one mile Listed race earlier on the card. This equates to 1.6 seconds slower when you adjust for the different distance of the two races. He was also 1.4 seconds slower over the last three furlongs than Hartani managed in the longer Curragh Cup off a strong early pace the next day on what I rated identical ground. That works out as 1.7 seconds slower when you adjust for the different distance of the races.
Camelot has won the first two legs of the British Triple Crown and is long odds on to take the third, the St Leger. But following this performance I'm now thinking there's a reason why no horse has won the British Triple Crown since Nijinsky back in 1970. I think it's the same reason no horse has won the American Triple Crown since Secretariat did so in 1973.
The reason is that the thoroughbred now has less stamina than was the case fourty years ago.
This is nothing new. The thoroughbred has been improved by selectively breeding for ever more speed since horse racing first began. That's why the average times they clock over a mile or less have become faster with each passing decade. However each measure of improvement in average times over shorter distances has resulted in slower times over distances of ten furlongs or more. That's what my research and that of every other person who has studied this field has shown.
I now think we've reached the point where a horse that has the speed needed to win the Guineas is most unlikely to have the stamina required to win the St Leger.
You could argue that no horse has actually attempted to win the British Triple Crown since Nijinsky. You could also argue that the fact eleven horses have failed in the Triple Crown attempt since Secretariat is irrelevant. After all in America the shortest race in the Triple Crown is nine and a half furlongs and the longest only twelve.
The trouble with this arguement is that to qualify for the first leg of the American Triple Crown a horse has to win a lot of prize money over nine furlongs or less to make the field. In addition dirt is a more slippery and therefore more taxing surface than dirt. So a mile and a half on dirt requires a lot more stamina than a mile and a half on turf.
I don't buy the excuse put forward by Camelot's trainer Aidan O'Brien that "he absolutely hated the ground". If this is the case then how come Camelot was able to win the 2000 Guineas on ground so slow it produced a winning time 3.21 seconds slower than any other 2000 Guineas winner in the last 24 years?
As I see it Camelot was tiring so badly at the end of the Irish Derby because he was running out of stamina. This is the obvious reason and it is not surprising when you look at his pedigree.
Camelot's dam Tarfah won five times at nine furlongs or less but didn't quite get home the only time she was run over ten furlongs. Her only other foal to race has been Ideal who scored her only win over ten furlongs but weakened to run unplaced the four times she was asked to go longer distances. And Ideal was by Galileo, a very strong influence for stamina and a sire whose first claim to fame was that he sired the first three past the post in the St Leger from his first crop.
Aidan O'Brien said after the Irish Derby that he planned on giving Camelot a lengthy break. This sounds very sensible to me. My studies suggest that when a horse has a really hard race over a mile and a half or more it takes a rest of at least ten weeks before you can be sure it has recovered. That means there's enough time to safely take in the St Leger with Camelot as long as he doesn't have a prep race. But personally, if he were mine, I'd be skipping the St Leger and steering Camelot towards the Arc via the Prix Niel.
The Arc looks set to be a really hard race to win this year, but I think Camelot has a better chance of taking it than the St Leger.
Due to tiring Camelot ran about three lengths a mile below the form he showed at Epsom by my estimates. This enabled runner up BORN TO SEA (39) to mount a serious challenge in the closing stages. He was carried left by the winner as that one wandered but was never quite going to get by.
It now seems clear that Born To Sea is best suited by middle distances, just like his dam and his seven siblings that raced in Europe. At this stage it looks like he's a smidge off Group 1 class. But this was his first try over the right type of distance and the ground was really slow, so I'm going to withhold judgement on just how good he could be for now.
Third placed LIGHT HEAVY (33) ran below his best. His trainer had expressed concerns about running him on soft ground and it seems very likely that this is what found him out. Back on a faster surface he may yet prove up to Group 1 standard.
AKEED MOFEED (28) caught my eye on his first start of the year. He improved from second to take the lead rounding the home turn and was moving rather well briefly at the three furlong mark before tiring
Akeed Mofeed went lame before his seasonal debut and missed the Leopardstown 2000 Guineas Trial, 2000 Guineas, Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, Derby and most recently the Irish 2000 Guineas. So clearly there are still concerns about his soundness. But he looked awfully good as a two year old. My suspicion is that on faster ground and fully fit he would have run a big race here.
The dismal run by Derby third ASTROLOGY (6) can probably be explained by a statistic. This is that over the last sixteen years 99 horses have contested British or Irish Group 1 races over twelve furlongs or more that also ran twelve furlongs or more in their last race sixteen days ago or less. All 99 lost. The implication is that Astrology was still suffering from the after effects of his taxing race at Royal Ascot.
Astrology is a quirky horse but is clearly smart when fresh. That is on his first two runs of the season or with a six week plus break thereafter. He's won the Chester Vase by eleven lengths and finished third in the Derby in these circumstances.
If he's given a decent break and not used simply as a pacemaker I can see Astrology doing well in future.
HARTANI HAS A BIG CHANCE OF WINNING A LEGER
Most people would agree with the idea that we probably saw the St Leger winner at the Curragh last weekend. But they'd be talking about Camelot.
Personally I reckon that if a St Leger winner did run at the Curragh last weekend it will prove to have been HARTANI (40). Though I concede it may well be the Irish St Leger that he will win rather than the original version at Doncaster.
Hartani impressed me with the way he won the Curragh Cup in seriously good time. He looked to be in trouble two furlongs out when runner up Midnight Soprano ranged up to him while still cruising. But he saw her off and then proceeded to clear away to score by almost six lengths by keeping up a relentless gallop all the way to the line.
In the past I would have knocked Hartani as a candidate for the St Leger at Doncaster on the grounds that for twenty years no Leger winner ran beyond a mile and a half before taking the big race. However two of the last three St Leger winners have defied that statistic, so I think it's no longer relevant. Genuine proven stamina now seems to be a real plus at Doncaster.
Hartani has now won all three times he's run longer distances. He was moving so strongly at the end of this race that I feel he's likely to be capable of making the small amount of improvement needed to take a Group 1 race.
Trainer John Oxx says that Hartani will be supplemented for both the British and Irish St Legers but is more likely to go for the Irish race due to his apparent preference for softer ground.
Runner up MIDNIGHT SOPRANO (37) was bidding for her sixth win in a row. She cruised up to the winner with two furlongs to run, moving so well she dropped to three to one on in running. But Hartani just kept on rolling and she ran out of gas.
It could be that Midnight Soprano doesn't quite get a mile and three quarters in a strongly run race on heavy ground. If that's the case then she should be able to improve a little on this effort when cut back to a mile and a half for the Group 3 Give Thanks Stakes at Cork next month.
FAMOUS NAME MAY FINALLY BE ABOUT TO WIN THAT GROUP 1
After he'd run second by a head in the Prix du Jockey Club on only his fifth lifetime start it looked like it was simply a mater of time before FAMOUS NAME (41) won a Group 1. But that was back in 2008 and Famous Name has no lost thirteen times out of thirteen when he's run in races higher than Group 3 class.
What makes this amazing is that following his win in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh last weekend Famous Name has now won the last fourteen times he has run below Group 2 class.
Famous Name won in such good style and clocked such a good time at the Curragh that I'm inclined to think he may finally be about to win that elusive Group 1 when he returns to Germany for the Grosser Dallmayr Preis at the end of the month.
The front running tactics adopted on the runner up DEFINING YEAR (38) seem to suit him. He'd run a half length second to the useful Sharestan the first time they were tried. Now he's gone and run second to Famous Name with the rest of the field well beaten off.
It looks like Defining Year needs soft ground to counteract his lack of acceleration. But when he gets it I can readily see him winning a Listed or Group 3 from the front.
IZZI TOP STARTS TO LOOK A LITTLE VULNERABLE
I suggested after her last start that IZZI TOP (39) was probably the best middle distance filly in Britain right now. Her win in the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh validates this idea. She did the smart runner up Sapphire for a turn of foot to win comfortably.
The concern I have is that Izzi Top keeps hitting the same sort of rating around 38 or 39. That is certainly Group 1 for a filly. But there are a whole bunch of fillies in France right now that can run faster on my ratings - namely Giofra, Galikova, Golden Lilac, Ridasiyna, Shareta, Solemia and Valyra. My thinking after watching this run is that at least six of the seven could beat Izzi Top.
Runner up SAPPHIRE (38) suffered her first loss in five tries on soft ground. It seems likely that the cut back to ten furlongs was the cause. She'd been most impressive when winning over a mile and a half on her previous start, while earning the top rating I've given a British or Irish filly all season. I'm still not convinced she needs soft ground. I suspect it's simply a test of stamina that she requires. This being so I'd like to see her take up her entry in the Irish St Leger.
I'M A DREAMER (38) had run her best ever race the only previous time she'd encountered cut in the ground beyond a mile when a head second in the E P Taylor Stakes. She ran just as well here to keep on strong and go under by less than two lengths. It's going to be tough for her to win a Group 1 given the strong competition that's around this year. But her seeming preference for ten furlongs and softer ground suggests her best shot of doing so will come in either the E P Taylor or the Premio Lydia Tesio at the end of the season.
THE UNITED STATES AND DIBIYANI ARE SMART TWO YEAR OLDS
The seven furlong 2YO maiden at the Curragh last Sunday was a very good contest.
Runner up DIBAYANI (36) took the field along at an ordinary pace early on, clocking a time 1.9 seconds slower to the three furlong pole than older handicappers managed over the same course and distance in the next race. However he and his pursuers picked up really strongly from there to get home 1.6 seconds faster than the older horses over the last three furlongs. When I adjust my speed ratings to reflect this it suggests Group class performances by the first two.
Dibayani still looks a little weak and immature up front but kept on really well when the winner tackled him and only just went under. He's built and bred to be a smart middle distance performer next season. Meanwhile I think he can win in Group company over seven furlongs or more as a two year old.
The winner THE UNITED STATES (36) is a much bigger and more mature horse, being good-bodied and muscular. He was always moving well but ran green and drifted across to the far rail to join the runner up when asked to challenge him. It looked like he'd have been able to produce more if he'd been more focused.
I see no reason why The United States shouldn't stay a mile. Though he's so darned big I'm not sure he'll get further. He too ought to be able to win in Group company and might just be a Group 1 horse if he can improve on this.
The winner's stablemate NEVIS (30) is built and bred for ten to twelve furlongs. He stayed on well through the closing stages despite colliding with his other stablemate a furlong and a half out and only being ridden hands and heels.
VINSON MASSIF (23) is another future middle distance sort. And he's a good mover, so I doubt that he liked the heavy ground. Nonetheless he moved up nicely when asked to pick up down the wide outside till taking a hefty bump from Nevis. His rider allowed him to come home in his own time over the last half furlong so I'm sure he'll prove a lot better than this. He's certainly a very good looking horse.
RIDASIYNA THE ONE TO BEAT IN NASSAU STAKES
At first glance the time RIDASIYNA (40) clocked winning the Prix Chloe looks impossibly fast. She ran the 1800 metres at a faster rate per furlong than Aesop's Fable managed in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat over 1600 metres on the same card.
Closer inspection of the videos and sectional times shows that the distance of the Prix Chloe was actually a bit shy of the advertised 1800 metres. Nonetheless by playing around with the embedded timer in the video and freeze framing it at the same point I was able to work out that Ridasiyna covered the last seven and a half furlongs in 92.38 seconds compared with the 91.49 seconds take by Aesop's Fable. When I adjust for the longer distance she ran that makes her run of equal merit, which is quite something.
Ridasiyna is bred to get a mile and a half and has already won over eleven furlongs. But her pacemaker did a tremendous job, setting a scorching gallop that set the race up for her.
Ridasiyna lobbed along in third and fourth position, took just a little while to get stoked up but then blew on by the leaders to win comfortably.
Mikael Delzangles said after the race "She confirmed what she showed last time and she really has some talent. Now the program gets a little bit more difficult, so we will take our time to decide, but the Nassau Stakes. [at Goodwood Aug. 4] and Beverly D. [at Arlington Aug. 13] are possibilities."
The obvious choice of the two races Delzangles nominated has to be the Nassau Stakes. Given her obvious stamina, the stronger pace and much longer homestraight of the British race makes it look much more suitable.
I certainly approve of the idea of travelling with Ridasiyna. There are now so many smart middle distance fillies in France this season that running anywhere else has to be smart.
MASHOORA THE ONE TO BEAT IN MAURICE DE GHEEST
MASHOORA (40) put up a very good performance to win the Group 3 Prix de la Porte Maillot at Longchamp. She picked up strongly to catch the front running Shamalgan and was going away rapidly at the finish.
I rated this the joint best performance by a 3YO filly all season. Clearly Mashoora is very smart.
Mashoora's connections now face a choice between the Prix Maurice de Gheest over six and a half furlongs or the Prix Rothschild over a mile.
For me the choice looks pretty simple. Mashoora might well have won all four times she's run less than a mile but for pulling hard when second to subsequent Group 1 winner Elusive Kate. She clearly didn't quite get the mile in mud in the Guineas and has been beaten into second by rivals she should have been able to beat in her other two starts over a mile.
The Prix de la Porte Maillot was run over the 1400 metre course at Longchamp which is actually about fourty yards shy of seven furlongs. A good deal of the distance is downhill too, hence the track record of just 1m 17.4 seconds. That makes it a good prep for the Maurice de Gheest.
Runner up SHAMALGAN (39) has some smart form to his name. He ran third in the French Guineas in 2010 and won Germany's top mile race from the high class Alianthus last year.
Shamalgan has won the last four times he's run on tight courses. But he lasted home around a more galloping track here, presumably due to the cut back in distance.
EC1
On a break
I think it's the same reason no horse has won the American Triple Crown since Secretariat did so in 1973.
except Seattle Slew & Affirmed of course
except Seattle Slew & Affirmed of course
EC1
On a break
I suspect he is right though about Camelot..he won't win the Leger
rorydelargy
At the Start
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
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- Messages
- 25,035
Can't have it that Camelot was "rolling around because he was very tired".
He became unbalanced on the ground, sure enough, but twice in the closing stages the 2nd got to his quarters, and twice Camelot gained ground on him.
Tiring horses don't do that!
He became unbalanced on the ground, sure enough, but twice in the closing stages the 2nd got to his quarters, and twice Camelot gained ground on him.
Tiring horses don't do that!
First two runs of the season or after a six week break thereafter is what he actually said.
rorydelargy
At the Start
The Derby was his second run of the season, hence it fits the overwrought profile, but your point that he spouts utter shite remains valid. :blink:
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Messages
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I apologise unreservedly to Mr Mordin for doubting him.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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- Messages
- 25,035
Actually, I take that back.
Astrology is only in his second season.
In his first, he won a maiden before going on to finish 3rd in a G2 nine days later. If he was good enough for G2 company so soon, he must have been a bit of stick-on for the maiden. And his next and only subsequent race happened to be six weeks later, a G3 - technically a drop in class - and he couldn't win that.
This season, he wins an iffy trial on iffy ground at an iffy track like Chester but runs well in a poor Derby (notwithstanding the excellent winner) before disappointing in his next two runs.
I imagine there would be other horses down through the seasons with not dissimilar records for whom we wouldn't be trying to seek patterns or manipulating interpretations of the form to suit our own views.
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