KING GEORGE DOUBLE LOOKING RATHER UNLIKELY FOR NATHANIEL
NATHANIEL (43) kicked for home a long way out in Eclipse Stakes and gamely stood off a succession of challenges to sustain a strong finishing burst all the way through the final three furlongs.
This was Nathaniel's best ever run on my ratings despite the fact that it was over a distance I and others felt would be short of his best.
The question now is whether Nathaniel can recover from this tough race in time to win a second successive King George next time out.
If you look at the record of Eclipse winners that have run in the King George that same season it's easy to be quite optimistic since twelve of the twenty attempts have resulted in success - as you can see from the results below:
1952...Tulyar.......................WON
1954...Darius......................third
1958...Ballymoss................WON
1961...St Paddy..................second
1967...Busted.....................WON
1968...Royal Palace............WON
1971...Mill Reef...................WON
1972...Brigadier Gerard.........WON
1980...Ela Mana Mou............WON
1981...Master Willie..............fourth
1982...Kalaglow....................WON
1984...Sadler's Wells............second
1986...Dancing Brave............WON
1988...Mtoto.........................WON
1989...Nashwan....................WON
1993...Opera House..............WON
1994...Ezzoud......................unseated
1997...Pilsudski....................second
1998...Daylami......................fourth
2003...Falbrav.......................fifth
However there are several major concerns about Nathaniel doubling up in the King George.
The first is that while it used to be almost a formality for the Eclipse winner to follow up in the King George this is no longer the case. No horse has pulled off the double since 1993. Most likely reasons for this are that today's racing season is longer and more international and that the decreasing stamina of thoroughbreds has led to more distance specialisation and longer recovery times.
Stamina is obviously not an issue with Nathaniel as he won the King George last year. The real worry is that all his four wins have come off breaks longer than five weeks. He's been beaten into second by inferior rivals both times he's been returned to the races more quickly than that.
Horses that have had the breathing problems Nathaniel has apparently experienced since last season tend to be best when they're fresh. So the horse's apparent preference for breaks between his runs makes perfect sense.
It is most unfortunate that the gap between the Eclipse and the King George has been cut from three weeks to two this year. I guess the race planners figured that since horses don't seem able to pull off the Eclipse-King George double any more there'd be no harm moving the races closer together. Their move looks likely to prove a self-fulfilling prophecy. Until the races are moved back to being three weeks apart it's going to be very hard for any horse to win them both in the same season, let alone one that seems best fresh like Nathaniel.
With the switch in distance of the Grand Prix de Paris to 12 furlongs having already sucked most of the good 3YO's out of the King George, the move in the calendar that makes it harder for Eclipse runners to tackle the race was surely not a great idea.
There are now clearly far too many European middle distance Group 1's run in the mid June to mid August period. At least two of them need to be dropped for the remainder to attract the quality and quantity of runners such contests deserve. But I can't see that happening any time soon.
Nathaniel's trainer John Gosden sounded dubious about making the double attempt after the race. He told reporters “He’s a super horse, but it has been very difficult to get him right as he has had a respiratory problem. It’s two weeks to the King George and that’s not great. He’s put in a massive effort here, so we will just have to have a good think about whether we run again (so soon).”
It seems likely that Gosden will wait until the Juddmonte International for Nathaniel's next race. And he clearly has his eye on a re-match with Frankel in the Champion Stakes if his post race comments are any guide. Those look to be logical targets now that Nathaniel has shown himself to be effective over ten furlongs. His chance of success in both of them are probably going to be dictated by whether or not his connections are tempted into running him in other races such as the King George and the Arc. If he skips those contests and is kept fresh for all his runs I can see him pulling off a remarkable hat trick.
The only concern would be fast ground. But it was actually good judged by race times at Sandown, so it may well be that Nathaniel is more versatile in regards to ground than it once appeared.
The gameness of Nathaniel is shown by the fact that up the homestraight no less than three horses moved up to mount challenges, two of them very serious ones, and he stood them all off one by one.
The final challenge was made by runner up FARHH (43) who briefly looked sure to get by (he went 2-5 in running). But a combination of Farrh running out of puff and shifting towards the rail plus Nathaniel rallying was enough to see him beaten.
Farhh is rather top heavy and has apparently had leg problems. His trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, said several times before this race that the more rain there was the better it would be for him.
The way the horse shifted on ground that was on the slow side of good backs up these concerns.
The logical thing to do now is to lay Farhh off until the Autumn and take up his entry in the Preis von Europa on September 23rd. Hopefully the ground will be soft enough for him there. Certainly the step up to a mile and a half should suit him too judged by his pedigree, his physique and the way he's been staying on in his races.
Third placed TWICE OVER (41) was moving rather well when forced to take up as Farhh ran across him inside the final furlong. He wouldn't have improved his position but would have finished at least a length closer but for the interference and I'm rating him accordingly.
A lot of people seem to have written off Twice Over as too old to win another Group 1 despite his big effort here. But the fact is he is a late maturing horse that only started to show his best from the Autumn of his four year old season.
Since that time Twice over has run ten times over his specialist trip of ten furlongs on tracks where the homestraight is half a mile or more. He won seven of those ten times.
One of his losses was a half length second to Rip Van Winkle in the 2010 Juddmonte International. Another was last time out when he only managed to run third by nine lengths over this course and distance in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes.
You could argue that run signals deterioration by Twice Over. But it was run in freakishly odd circumstances.
The Gordon Richards Stakes took place on almost unraceably heavy ground. And the giant mudlark Poet set a searching pace and the entire field almost ground to a halt in the closing stages. They took 8.2 seconds longer to cover the last 3.25 furlongs than they did in the Classic Trial, and the Racing Post reported they covered the last quarter mile in an amazingly slow 34 seconds. It basically required as much stamina as a mile and a half race and Twice Over has never been asked to go that far. He did well to keep tabs on the first two until tiring in the last quarter mile.
Trainer Sir Henry Cecil has given Twice Over plenty of time to recover from that hard race. The horse won the Eclipse in 2010 and showed he could win off a break by winning three times on his seasonal debut. In fact seven of his twelve wins have been off breaks of five weeks or more.
Last August, before he ran in the Juddmonte International, Twice Over had run unplaced three times in a row. But he bounced back to his best to win the big York race because it provided his optimum conditions. This time around Twice Over will have lost four times in a row when he tackles the Juddmonte International. But this run says to me that he's as good as ever.
CITYSCAPE (36) was my idea of the winner, and I was counting my winnings when he surged up to Nathaniel, moving strongly, with two furlongs left to run. Unfortunately he soon ran out of stamina and beat a retreat to finish fourth.
Cityscape is a big, top heavy horse that hit’s the ground pretty hard. As a three year old he broke down on fast ground in the 2000 Guineas. He looked booked to finish within about six lengths of the winner when his back legs almost went out from under him two furlongs out. Clearly he either broke a bone in one of his back legs or tore a ligament.
Cityscape was off for a year but has bounced back to win five pattern races since his injury, including the Dubai Duty Free, the world’s joint most valuable turf race, three runs back.
Until recently Cityscape seemed to need cut in the ground to produce his best form. He has in fact won five of the six times that the word ‘soft’ has appeared in the official going in races over 8-9f.
The sole loss Cityscape had with cut in the ground over 8-9f came in the Jacques Le Marois where he only finished eighth. It looks likely that he was suffering from the after effects of running his best ever race on his previous start where he’d run a good third to the brilliant pair Canford Cliffs and Goldikova in the Queen Anne.
A similar thing seemed to happen on his penultimate start when Cityscape flopped in Hong Kong. He’d just bettered his previous best effort when winning the Dubai Duty Free. That hard race seemed to knock him off form as he weighed in at only 1070 pounds compared to the 1102 he had weighed when also running in Hong Kong two runs earlier (where he only lost the HK Mile in a photo).
A 32 pound weight loss is a big sign that a horse is in need of a break. And he ran like it. The stewards report for the race says:
“When questioned regarding the performance of CITYSCAPE, J Doyle stated that the horse did not begin well as it had done at its most recent start. He said at its last start the horse had begun well and then had improved its position in the early stages without having to be ridden along. He said today CITYSCAPE began only fairly and he was obliged to ride the horse in the early stages to make up lost ground. He said although the tempo of the race was only fair, he had to urge CITYSCAPE along to maintain its position. He said during the race the horse did not travel as it did at its most recent start and when placed under pressure did not stretch out and finish off the race as anticipated. A veterinary inspection of CITYSCAPE after the race did not show any significant findings.”
Cityscape was been rested for nine weeks after his Hong Kong run and was now back in very good form before the Eclipse according to his trainer Roger Charlton. He reported on Twitter that the horse worked really well a few days before.
When he ran away with the Dubai Duty Free the ground was officially good at Meydan but actually firm enough to allow Cityscape to break the track record. It was good to firm when he ran a neck second in the Hong Kong Mile. So you could argue that Cityscape has now demonstrated he no longer needs cut in the ground.
However Sha Tin and Meydan are modern, purpose built tracks that have totally smooth surfaces that are very well maintained. Both tracks have very good and very expensive watering systems. I suspect that on European tracks which are rougher and less well maintained Cityscape probably still needs the ground to be good to soft or softer to produce his best form. Though I concede this is debatable.
The plan is apparently to rest Cityscape and bring him back in the Jacques le Marois in about six weeks. The official going description for that race has contained the word 'soft' in twelve of the last fifteen years, so it looks a decent target. Indeed, with Frankel due to go up to ten furlongs, it's hard to argue against the idea that Cityscape has a big chance of proving Europe's top miler in the second half of the season.
CRACKERJACK KING (34) was always prominent and moved up looking a real threat just after the three furlong pole. His effort petered out most likely because the ground was a bit slow for him. In addition most horses need their first run for a new stable.
Crackerjack King has won all seven times he's run on good or faster ground and is one of the best Italian horses of the past decade. Rakti, Ramonti, Falbrav, Electrocutionist and Gladiatorus have all shown that Italy can produce world class horses.
The Grosser Dallmayr Preis over ten furlongs on the 29th of July looks the most logical immediate target for Crackerjack King. He's also in the Sussex Stakes but surely doesn't want to go back down to a mile. After that he's in the Juddmonte International and Irish Champion Stakes. Those look good targets too. But clearly everything is going to depend on the ground for this smart horse, so his connections will need to be patient and prepared to pay plenty of entry fees to give the horse the best chance.
BONFIRE (28) played up a bit before the race, as he has prior to other major contests. He pulled hard early too. Passing the three furlong pole he was only five or six lengths back but soon tired. He was allowed to come home in his own time during the final furlong and ended up beaten over eighteen lengths.
It's tempting to draw the conclusion that Bonfire doesn't like the big crowds and lengthy parades before the grandstand that are part and parcel of Group 1 races. After all he's now won lost all three times he's tackled Group 1 contests despite clocking a proper Group 1 time when winning the Dante.
However I'm prepared to believe that Bonfire's two hard races in the Dante and the Derby were still having an impact. He'd only been off for five weeks since the Derby and I suspect a little more time may be needed for him to bounce back to form. He's a high class, lightly raced horse. I wouldn't be writing him off just yet.
Dubai World Cup winner MONTEROSSO (17) tired badly to finish far back, but there were obvious excuses.
Firstly, when considering his form it’s probably best to bear in mind that Monterosso’s sire won the French Guineas while the thirteen wins scored by his dam and siblings were all over a mile or less.
This surely explains why Monterosso's two wins over a mile and a half have both come in slow run races on lightning fast ground. In more strongly run races over a mile and a half he’s run unplaced three times out of three, tiring in the closing stages.
In fact Monterosso’s three Group wins have all been in slow run races. So I'm prepared to believe he didn't get home in this race thanks to the stiff track, strong early pace and rather testing ground.
The ground was probably the biggest factor. Through his whole career Monterosso had been steered away from anything but good or faster ground or synthetic surfaces. This was the first time he'd encountered slow going.
The slowest ground Monterosso had run on before was in the Great Voltigeur in which he suffered a near twenty length loss - three times as far as he’d been beaten in any other race. The ground was only slightly on the slow side of good for that race, just as it was here. Clearly he needs it faster.
Finally it looks clear that Monterosso needed this outing.
The owner’s spokesman Simon Crisford clearly stated as much when telling reporters "It was always the plan to give him a break after his win in the World Cup and I expect he'll probably be better for the run. I'll take things one race at a time with him but this is just the start of his European season." Clearly this was just a prep race for Monterosso. It would be surprising if he gets seriously involved. He should return to form the next time he encounters a fast surface over ten furlongs or less.
GREAT HEAVENS IS A GROUP 1 FILLY
GREAT HEAVENS (40) clocked a time 1.2 seconds faster than the winner of the following Old Newton Cup off a stronger pace and finished significantly faster over the last three furlongs.
Seeing that the Old Newton Cup is one of the season's most valuable handicaps, that is saying something.
Great Heavens is clearly a Group 1 horse. She set a strong pace here and just kept on running to blast away from her rivals in the closing stages.
It's tempting to say that Great Heavens needs cut in the ground and is a little too one paced to win a Group 1 on fast ground, especially in a country where the early pace tends to be slower. But I remember thinking the same about a filly called Dar re Mi that her trainer John Gosden had a few years ago. And Dar Re Mi ended up winning the Dubai Sheema Classic against males in a sprint finish and passed the post first in the Prix Vermeille.
There are some seriously good fillies in France this year. But I can't be confident that Great Heavens won't be able to beat them in the Prix Vermeille and avenge the unfair disqualification of Dar Re Mi. If she stays at home for the Yorkshire Oaks she should be tough to beat.
TIN HORSE WANTS TEN FURLONGS
The strong early pace in the Prix Messidor really seemed to help TIN HORSE (40). He was able to pick up really strongly in the last quarter mile and leave his rivals for dead in the final furlong. If he hadn't been blocked in his run initially by Moonwalk In Paris I suspect he'd have won by three lengths instead of two.
When Tin Horse won the Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) last year the early pace was also strong. And he followed that up by getting beat less than three lengths into fifth in a field of sixteen in the Prix du Jockey Club over ten and a half furlongs.
Tim Horse has a long stride and looks built to stay ten furlongs. Three of his dam's four previous foals did so and his sire is the Arc winner Sakhee. In the circumstances I'm not sure it's a great idea to keep him to a mile in the Jacques le Marois - unless he's provided with a good pacemaker. I'd like to see him go back up to a mile and a quarter. He'd likely do well in Britain or Ireland too as his chances wouldn't be compromised by the slow early pace that's the norm in France.
