What are you backing Today?

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Ballinrobe 8:25 Riotman 12/1 - 3pts e/way

Not disgraced over C/D and going last September when beaten 8L in a better race off 100 - Runs off 90 today with a 7lb claimer so effectively 17LB less. Is 10yo but has only had 12 races under rules so possibly still open to improvement. Has had two runs this season and should hopefully be a lot fitter today.
 
The connections of Soap Wars have pulled him on five occasions, reportedly on account of the ground, but really just avoiding the Gigilo nap.

I was hoping for a big field 6f h/cap, but he comes out in a small field 5f race.

He does have an entry later in the week over 6f, so I was expecting him to be pulled again.

The fact he's standing his ground has left me with decision of whether to back him, but he landed a touch for me last year @ 16/1, so my gut tells me to follow 1st time out today, even though he's only 4/1 betfair.

If he's not prominent, I've done me money.
 
I have noticed some of Prescotts horses running extremely well over the last few days-with the change in the weather and the better ground that it will being it might be worth following him blindly over the next 10 days.
Obviously I will exclude the old dog that is Mid Mon Lady.
 
Great day not to be punting with Russian War winning-that would have badly burned both hands if I was on Betfair.
 
Planteur an absolute certainty if he runs tomorrow, Mortgage job!!!!!!!
 
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Marble said:
Planteur an absolute certainty if he runs tomorrow, Mortgage job!!!!!!!
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Good luck with that, Marb; though I'm sure you're aware of trainer's misgivings about the going. Has yet to win a race on summer ground.
Afsare looks likely to step up, imo.
 
Marble said:
Planteur an absolute certainty if he runs tomorrow, Mortgage job!!!!!!!
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I understand the trainer is worried about the drying ground how fast can it actually be after all the rain we've had? It surely can't have any jar in it at least. Planteur ran ok on reasonably fast ground behind Rewilding at the Royal meeting in 2011. 4/1 is a gift considering the lack of any proper Group class opposition. He holds Afsare easily on a line through Crackerjack King and whilst I like Wigmore Hall and Ransom Note and have backed them both in the past they haven't been in form of late. Side Glance isn'd bred to stay.
 
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Euronymous said:
I understand the trainer is worried about the drying ground how fast can it actually be after all the rain we've had? It surely can't have any jar in it at least. Planteur ran ok on reasonably fast ground behind Rewilding at the Royal meeting in 2011. 4/1 is a gift considering the lack of any proper Group class opposition. He holds Afsare easily on a line through Crackerjack King and whilst I like Wigmore Hall and Ransom Note and have backed them both in the past they haven't been in form of late. Side Glance isn'd bred to stay.
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You've said it all for me, cheers. Agree with every word.
 
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The level he showed in both renewals is similar. This indicates that the fast ground at York isn't a huge worry. As for the worth of that form, Sri Putra is always ridden in these races to try and finish third or fourth - if the jockey on board Planteur had ridden him out the back he'd have been closer. I'm not claiming Planteur is a world beater but why Afsare is so prominent in the market I have no frigging idea. The form he had with Crackerjack King was shown up for what it was when that horse was nowhere in the Eclipse. I'd always sooner have horses stepping down after running reasonably in top races than animals who win dogshit events well. How the hell Crackerjack King started 11/2 at Sandown is beyond me.
 
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Marble said:
Planteur an absolute certainty if he runs tomorrow, Mortgage job!!!!!!!
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I dont know fekk all about horses, just fancied picking one out of the paper to have an excuse to go to the pub, you saved me the price of the paper. Cheers.
 
Euronymous said:
The level he showed in both renewals is similar. This indicates that the fast ground at York isn't a huge worry. As for the worth of that form, Sri Putra is always ridden in these races to try and finish third or fourth - if the jockey on board Planteur had ridden him out the back he'd have been closer. I'm not claiming Planteur is a world beater but why Afsare is so prominent in the market I have no frigging idea. The form he had with Crackerjack King was shown up for what it was when that horse was nowhere in the Eclipse. I'd always sooner have horses stepping down after running reasonably in top races than animals who win dogshit events well. How the hell Crackerjack King started 11/2 at Sandown is beyond me.
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Crackerjack King had no chance of running to form in the eclipse though..have you seen his action?..proper fast ground scratchy action
 
I don't think Planteur is a certainty on the ratings but i can't see how the ground will be a problem as when he beat sarafina the time was 2.71 seconds faster than the RP standard..thats fast ground not good as stated in its form
 
i've backed Ransom Note at 11.0..2nd to TO in this last year..think will be primed for this and has his ground this year which he didn't last year..loves rattling ground
 
best bet today is

Gallego 6.10 Salisbury

must have a strong pace - gets it from Sasheen, Name Is Frank, Frederickthegrest & maybe Potentiale

needs 8f+ or a bit more these days..7f too short...acts well at Salisbury and on ground without give..

record on GOOD+ at Salisbury over 8f+ is

11136341

Last 10 wins have all come from June onwards

lowest mark for a good while..last time off 56 he won

5.5 on betfair at the moment
 
MAUREEN in the Princess Margaret at Ascot.

Should have won the Cherry Hinton last time but Fortune managed to get her into an impossible position a furlong out, flying at the finish beaten a neck.

Hughesie rides today.
 
EC1 said:
how would you make him 5/4 though....has only got 2 or 3lbs in hand of lots of horses in this..and that is IF he runs to his very best
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I think he has more in hand than that. He's been running in Group 1 races, struggling to go with far better horses than he faces today. If you look at his last run his jockey was after him from early in the straight as he tried to keep tabs on So You Think. In a lesser race he will need rousting that much later and so I expect a better performance. He's an early 120s horse who never seems to have run in anything other than Group 1 events unless he was trialling for an Arc or a Classic.
 
Even without Raise The Beat the opener at Wexford looks an interesting enough race.

Ontheground, who is getting 8lbs from some, has run to a decent level the last twice. The another Beat All in the race, Do Ya Feel Lucky, won a very reasonable bumper last time as soon as he got the chance to run on fast ground, Realt Den Chathair has been improving with each run, and there are another couple of horses, Red Cert and God's County who might yet deliver on earlier promise.

Do Ya Feel Lucky is a huge price on Betfair, 25/1 or so, which is completely out of line with his price elsewhere of around 7/1. I wonder why. Ontheground at around 3/1 looks a reasonable enough bet.

 
Another example of a trainer with not many good horses over thinking it like McCain did with Peddlers Cross.
 
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