What are you backing Today?

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swedish chef said:
Not very original as she's fav but have to have a bet out of respect for what she achieved L/T/O :D

Kempton 8:45 Silver Lace 10pts win 3.5 betfair

My only bet today as I can't believe this horse won from stall 14 over 7f at Kempton L/T/O - a great ride from Ted Durcan who took a pull as the stalls opened and was running sideways to the rail as the rest of the field were going forward then managed to find a way through to win. I can't remember a horse winning from the widest draw over that distance at the track since the 1 stall was the inside stall. The form has been franked by the 2nd going close in a better race N/T/O and the 3rd & 4th both winning N/T/O - Silver Lace has only gone up 3lbs and has a low draw today although the race is a furlong further. I just feel to win from her draw L/T/O she must be better than her current rating.
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:cool:
 
Laytown 4:40 – Pivotal Rock

Last year Pivotal Rock won the 7f maiden comfortably carrying 10-3 in 1m 20.9sec easily the fastest of the four 7f races run that day. This is an average of 11.557 secs per furlong and he beat a 71 rated horse in second off level weights.

The fav for today’s race Kateeva also won a 6f h’cap last year, making all, carrying 10-1 in a time of 1m 11.9secs and was the slowest time of the two 6f races run that day. This is an average os 11.983 secs per furlong and she beat a horse rated 63 in second receiving 13lb.

In today’s race Kateeva is 7/2f and carrying 4lb less(this includes 5lb jockey claim) and Pivotal Rock is 11/2, considering Pivotal Rock ran 0.426 secs per furlong faster than Kateeva last year and is only 2lb worse off, I think the bookies have their prices wrong.

Admittedly Kateeva has been showing the better recent form but imo Pivotal Rock has not been seeing out the trip over the distances he’s been running at and this drop to 6f could be a masterstroke from his shrewd trainer. I know Pivotal rock won a race at Dundalk over 11f but that was a very slowly run race that turned into a sprint. And he was travelling sweet enough in his last two races over a mile before not seeing out the final furlong.

Now it could be Kateeva has improved as she’s been raised 17lb by the h’capper since her win here last year to a mark of 70 but she’s been penalised for running well without winning, her highest winning mark is still 60.
I have dismissed the rest of the field on the basis of no course experience or poor course form.

For these reasons I see the 6/1(Victor) 11/2 (BetFred, Betfair) as the value bet 10pts win
I may add a 7pts stake saver on a place(betfair) if market is positive.
 
Just watching yesterday's highlights, how did Sole Power go off at 5/2 against that lot!!
 
Kailani for me in the next. Unlucky in the Oaks and was staying on strongly. Have to put a line through the last run.
 
have backed Rightcar to place at 3.05 in the 8.50 race..needs a very strong pace and when gets it is very consistent..5 front runners here should be just the ticket
 
Had a cracking week punting wise, but bound to come down to earth for my normal dismal Saturday standard. I hate to say it but it does look like a "winning day", so I'm going to have a pop at these for varying stakes with some multiples as well.

Bath 1.45 Crimson Queen win @ 16.8 ( Lay back IR @ 4.4/1.33)
Falasteen win @ 26.0

Even though Crimson Queen is going to get early pace pressure, I still think she is way overpriced if simply for a trade.

Hit 1.01 over C&D off a slightly lower mark, but got turned over on softer ground. Even if he goes too fast early, I will hopefully get the trade out.

Falasteen is the stable mate of the fav, but he's got his conditions and is slipping to a decent mark. The race may be set up for him, if there is strong early pace.

Newcastle 3.10 Who's Shirl win @ 8/1 & 7/1

Backed this lto and was unlucky in running. Tougher race but still appeals to me.

Donny 3.00 Kaldoun Kingdom W&P @ 15.5/4.1

Has to reverse recent form with a few of these, but the extra yardage should help and still looks to have enough ability for an old timer.

Not too sure of the significance of Hanagan riding this instead of the fav, but looks to have a sound chance of getting in the first four.

Donny 4.50 Winged Icarus win @ 8/1
Hoarding 1 pt win @ 3/1

Put a write up on the former last week when he was pulled out. Subsequently entered and withdrawn again, but even a 20lb rise may not stop him assuming he goes on this surface.

I love Gosden 2yo's at Donny and I have to have a saver on this, even at the short price.
 
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3.00

Ancient Cross comes here after a similar prep to last year when only beaten 3/4 length off 100..now off 94 and Buick has his first ride for a shrewd stable...looks laid out for this race.

20.0 on betfair
 
St Leger
Thought Worthy 5pts win 18.0
Thomas Chippendale 5pts place 5.0 sp if not matched
Encke 5pts place 6.4 sp if not matched
 
Well done in the Leger SC.

Backed Michelangeo, TC and Encke in place only markets, so did ok, but feel a little sick bottling the win market.
 
I like Willowing in the 7:50. Dictated the race and stayed close in the end where closers took the prize in her last. Her Doncaster form before might be enough to win this with out expected improvement Won't get rich but looks like a real lenient start in nurseries especially as the Polytrack might show significant improvement.
 
had a go on flameoftheforest in the last..Ahern is a positive booking coinciding with a 3lb drop since last run..mark has slipped to a winning one..on at 14.0
 
EC1 said:
had a go on flameoftheforest in the last..Ahern is a positive booking coinciding with a 3lb drop since last run..mark has slipped to a winning one..on at 14.0
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I'll join you with a small e/way on yours and an outsider Dozy Joe :ninja: Good luck!!
 
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