Ling 2.50 Mary's Pet. Win @ 12.5
I'm clueless to what price this will go off at. Got an apprentice on without a win, so there may be some value. I've had a brief look at the jockey's record; 0/18 and 0/9 in apprentice races does not really inspire confidence, but a lot of the rides have been on rags and his only ride on this horse was actually very good. It's interesting that I can't get anything in the win market on the exchange, but a bot with bollocks was happy to take me on in the place market. All the cash in that market is mine, but I decided to withdraw gracefully when £400 went up @ 3.8. It certainly had me thinking had I got the price wrong and the "**** or bust" type of ride she needs, could explain the place price, but she actually has a 44% SR from 9 runs in similar races.
The success of the bet hinges on how well she breaks, if she fails to get the lead it's curtains really with regards to winning. All wins come with comments "made all".
I think Kirby possibly over did the forcing tactics lto, but that run alone gives her the beating of the market leaders Red Ramasses and Artful Lady.
Having backed Fairy Wing earlier in the week back over a mile, on the basis he was running over 6f to get dropped, I am miffed he's back to 6f. He did run in snatches lto and may well be staying on but I couldn't have him on the trip basis.
Athaakeel initially looks a threat with the jockey 1/1, but he actually looks exposed off this mark of 55. The 7lb claim will no doubt help, but he's actually 6lb worse off with Mary's Pet bet for an inferior run in the first division ion the 1st Feb.
Spoof Master is worry in that he could be a spoiler for the lead.
The sensible option would be an in running trade, as if the jockey can get her away, there is a chance he will go too hard. However, her record when leading is decent, so I'm not bottling the win bet even if I did in the place market.