What are you backing Today?

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BennyB said:
As I Am in the last at Worcester. Should be odds on IMO so 7-4 looks a bet. In great form, decent rider takes off 7.
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I am going to give myself a pat on the back for this one - started at evens and won easily.

One bet today for me: Trulee Scrumptious in the last at Yarmouth. Form has been franked and looks an each way bet to nothing at 5-1.
 
BennyB said:
I am going to give myself a pat on the back for this one - started at evens and won easily.

One bet today for me: Trulee Scrumptious in the last at Yarmouth. Form has been franked and looks an each way bet to nothing at 5-1.
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Well done Benny, good positive call.:)
 
GOTTCHER 4.30 MUSSELBURGH

Gottcher has his third race for Keith Dalgleish and he may well take a bit of catching today. Two runs back he was third to Red Baron in a 0-80 over course and distance only giving in inside the final furlong. That was Red Baron’s third win of the campaign and he was made favourite for a 0-90 on his next run. Gottcher then went to Catterick for an awful race on soft ground. He looked like he was going to collect but he got mugged close home. Gottcher hasn’t won for two years but he is 15lbs lower than his last winning mark.

Quality Art will be popular but he is worse off at the weights with Gottcher. He was just over 3ls behind Gottcher at Catterick but he is 5lbs worse off today. He then went on to win a 0-65 off 56, his first win for two years. Richard Guest had managed to get his handicap mark down from 86 to record his first win for the yard but he didn’t follow that up off 62 at Nottingham. He came to win his race but faded out of it and that may well be as good as he is now.

Bakers Pursuit will find a race and she was second to Amelia Jay when she didn’t get the breaks. She makes her debut against older horses today. Goldie has an awful record with 3yos making their debut against their elders, 1-39, but the winner was just in July. She is a hold up horse and the way this will be run won’t suit her.

Busy Bimbo is a 37 race maiden from a yard that has had two winners from their last 100 runners.

Here Now And Why hasn’t won the turf for two years and is 2lbs above that mark. He did win at Wolverhampton last year off 55 but he is generally disappointing. He does have conditions to suit and he should run well without winning.

Cayman Fox is 3-61 and last won three years ago. He is 0-12 at Musselburgh and 0-13 on good to firm and 0-11, never placed, when returning after a break of 30 days or more.

Miss Bossy Boots has shown very little in six races over 7f/8f. The drop back to 5f should suit. She is by Ishiguru whose progeny strike at around 10% over 5f at Musselburgh but she is 10lbs out of the handicap here.

Conclusion: Cayman Fox usually leads but doesn’t keep up the gallop and he may well not get the lead today with Gottcher in the field. It is likely Gottcher will kick at the elbow and have these left flat footed. He is very well handicapped and must go close.
 
Good luck

5.50 Lingfield-If So @ 3-1 [Bet Victor] BOG

Trainer has had 6 winners from last seven runners
 
This is more to do with how the trainer operates as opposed to overall form. If Cape Factor doesn't win today, she will most likely win next time.


CAPE FACTOR 4.40 LINGFIELD

Rae Guest does well with his handicap debutants on the all weather, 7-20, and that record improves when they go off at single figure odds,6-9. What is interesting that two of the three horses that lost won their next race. So Guest is clearly astute at getting horses well handicapped. The yard have done well 2yos this year, 5-13, 5-9 at single figure odds and 3 of the last 5 runners have won, 3-4 at single figure odds.
Cape Factor won her maiden over 6f here showing determination to get her head in front. She is closely related to Hidden Belief who has won over 7f and Benzanno who has won over 8f, so the step up in distance will suit. Catlin is 2-2 on Guest handicap debutants. He is 2-4 on 2yos this season, 2-2 at single figure odds.
 
MLMRob said:
GOTTCHER 4.30 MUSSELBURGH

Gottcher has his third race for Keith Dalgleish and he may well take a bit of catching today. Two runs back he was third to Red Baron in a 0-80 over course and distance only giving in inside the final furlong. That was Red Baron’s third win of the campaign and he was made favourite for a 0-90 on his next run. Gottcher then went to Catterick for an awful race on soft ground. He looked like he was going to collect but he got mugged close home. Gottcher hasn’t won for two years but he is 15lbs lower than his last winning mark.

Quality Art will be popular but he is worse off at the weights with Gottcher. He was just over 3ls behind Gottcher at Catterick but he is 5lbs worse off today. He then went on to win a 0-65 off 56, his first win for two years. Richard Guest had managed to get his handicap mark down from 86 to record his first win for the yard but he didn’t follow that up off 62 at Nottingham. He came to win his race but faded out of it and that may well be as good as he is now.

Bakers Pursuit will find a race and she was second to Amelia Jay when she didn’t get the breaks. She makes her debut against older horses today. Goldie has an awful record with 3yos making their debut against their elders, 1-39, but the winner was just in July. She is a hold up horse and the way this will be run won’t suit her.

Busy Bimbo is a 37 race maiden from a yard that has had two winners from their last 100 runners.

Here Now And Why hasn’t won the turf for two years and is 2lbs above that mark. He did win at Wolverhampton last year off 55 but he is generally disappointing. He does have conditions to suit and he should run well without winning.

Cayman Fox is 3-61 and last won three years ago. He is 0-12 at Musselburgh and 0-13 on good to firm and 0-11, never placed, when returning after a break of 30 days or more.

Miss Bossy Boots has shown very little in six races over 7f/8f. The drop back to 5f should suit. She is by Ishiguru whose progeny strike at around 10% over 5f at Musselburgh but she is 10lbs out of the handicap here.

Conclusion: Cayman Fox usually leads but doesn’t keep up the gallop and he may well not get the lead today with Gottcher in the field. It is likely Gottcher will kick at the elbow and have these left flat footed. He is very well handicapped and must go close.
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Nice one.
 
Well done Rob, top write up as usual. I've got both your selections in a £25 win trixie with If So in the last at Lingfield.....
 
Brilliant stuff, Rob, I'm pleased to say I followed you in on both of them. You're definitely a man worth listening to.
 
Great work Rob and PB. Those and Broxbourne have made it a profitable day for me and a less profitable one for Ladbrokes.
 
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