What are you backing Today?

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I am still shellshocked having backed John Quinns horse at Kelso.

Rubbing my hands with Glee I was :(

Ballysands was just as bad when his jockey got lost Ludlow and took the scenic route between the last 2 fences.

Tom Scudamore takes over today so hopefully there will be no repeat and this time he'll come home in front.
 
Here's a question, Tanlic.

4 horses in with some sort of chance in a five runner race (Plumpton 3:05).

I give the front three in the market somewhere between a 25-35 precent chance of winning. I think they're hard to split, cases could be made for any of them, and you may aswell pick pieces of paper out of a hat to split their chances (perhaps this assumption is my first mistake in reading the form?!).

Then there is a horse called Regal Flow, who probably has about a 15-20 percent chance of winning.
No solid form case can be argued, other than he might be well handicapped first time in a handicap chase.

What should a man like myself back? Do I take paper out of a hat on the front three? Or back the value horse?

Answer = Back the value horse, Regal Flow.

I fully expect to look silly afterwards, but I would always back against the front three, if they were too hard to split, and short enough in the betting on that basis.

Plumpton 3:05 Regal Flow
 
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I wouldn't have a bet in the race tbh

I sometimes play prices when I see a bunch of horses I am not familiar with.

What I have noticed is when the first 3 are 5/1 and above and then there's a bunch of horses between 11 and say 25 very seldom does 1 of the 3 win

In small fields like this it is no where near as often.

A bit of a cop out me saying I wouldn't have a bet so if I was forced to have abet I would tread carefully.

I would eliminate Tigre D'aron and dutch Golanova and Parting Way around 1.9

Odds are short but I couldn't back Regal Flow who is highly unlikely to act on the ground

Golanova is the most consistent and Parting Way is the least exposed with a bit of ability
 
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I know what you mean. They're backing Burgess Dream in the race, so I shall take that one with Regal Flow against the front three. Small stakes.
 
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Why are you both desperate to have a bet in a race neither of you has a strong view on?


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Tanlic said:
Well dome Marble Talking Horses top tipster
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I don't think so somehow!

A bit like my secondary school state-sponsored education, it was a good experiment nonetheless though.
Cheers Moe btw. :)
 
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marble said:
Here's a question, Tanlic.

4 horses in with some sort of chance in a five runner race (Plumpton 3:05).

I give the front three in the market somewhere between a 25-35 precent chance of winning. I think they're hard to split, cases could be made for any of them, and you may aswell pick pieces of paper out of a hat to split their chances (perhaps this assumption is my first mistake in reading the form?!).

Then there is a horse called Regal Flow, who probably has about a 15-20 percent chance of winning.
No solid form case can be argued, other than he might be well handicapped first time in a handicap chase.

What should a man like myself back? Do I take paper out of a hat on the front three? Or back the value horse?

Answer = Back the value horse, Regal Flow.

I fully expect to look silly afterwards, but I would always back against the front three, if they were too hard to split, and short enough in the betting on that basis.

Plumpton 3:05 Regal Flow
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Great call hope you took the value
 
LINGFIELD 4:10 - With the jumps meeting under threat tomorrow, my own attention has gone to the A/W.

Swendab ran a nice race on Monday at Wolverhampton. He finished third behind two lightly raced and progressive sorts after dwelling at the start. The visors are an interesting addition here and he races from the same mark tomorrow. He has 8:9 on his back and does appear best off at the weights in this. Admittedly a subjective choice though as cases can be made for pretty much each and every runner.
 
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I think La Estrella looked in serious difficulty last time out after an 11 month absence but he got up to win under what I thought was an inspired ride from Graham Lee.I know the horse can deceive in running punters but he is now 12 and there is a chance he will bounce..Strong lay for me at anything under 1.85.
 
All of his form suggests Hawkesbury (6.40K) needs a stiffer test than this sharp 6, and I'll take him on with Merdon Castle (currently 4/1).
Only failed by half a length to give 3lb to Kool Kompany (curremt OR 113) in a hot Windsor novice, and was clearly wrong at Royal Ascot subsequently.
 
There's been money this morning for the Brook in the opening juvenile hurdle at Newbury, but he will need to be pretty-handy to beat Norse Legend, who looks a horse of at-least some promise, based on his run behind the undefeated Bidourey. Norse Legend should also handle the ground today, having won a 2m maiden hurdle on Heavy at Plumpton, on his only other start. I've taken 7/4.
 
LUKE said:
I think La Estrella looked in serious difficulty last time out after an 11 month absence but he got up to win under what I thought was an inspired ride from Graham Lee.I know the horse can deceive in running punters but he is now 12 and there is a chance he will bounce..Strong lay for me at anything under 1.85.
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Agree, taking it on with INVESTISSEMENT, who was only a length behind at Wolves in December and is now 11lb better off.
 
WEST APPROACH (Newbury 4.00) is apparently working really well at home, although Tizzard has an awful record in bumpers lately.
 
marble said:
LINGFIELD 4:10 - With the jumps meeting under threat tomorrow, my own attention has gone to the A/W.

Swendab ran a nice race on Monday at Wolverhampton. He finished third behind two lightly raced and progressive sorts after dwelling at the start. The visors are an interesting addition here and he races from the same mark tomorrow. He has 8:9 on his back and does appear best off at the weights in this. Admittedly a subjective choice though as cases can be made for pretty much each and every runner.
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No one really wants this, glad I took SP anyway, 16's now, hopefully won't disgrace itself.
 
Eastwood Ho 6lbs better in with the fav for a couple of necks, and ran in a better race than this lto,EW chance imo.
 
A very speculative bet on Embankment in the 5.10, noticed this make up a lot of ground at Lingfield 2 outings ago and has had just the 3 runs for Attwater after being off for a year. Loses a lot of ground at the start so you'll probably want to see him get away ok before having a little bet, but is on a nice mark if unusual jockey booking G Lee can get him going, Small EW bet.
 
1:10 tomorrow at M.Rasen is another race where I'll be backing the horse whose odds look appealing rather than the form.

I'm expecting them to price up Nicky's horse and Novirak quite short. Personally (I havn't watched video form mind) I'll take them both on if short enough as I expect.

Dr Richard Newlands horse or Pyrshan would be the backable ones, see what the market does.
 
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Lads/females, am i talking to myself here? Not a big fan of that!
Which should I back tomorrow, the Newland or McPherson horse.
 
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