What are you backing Today?

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swedish chef said:
I don't post anywhere near as much as I would like because work is so busy I don't get the time, but when I do find some time I find I use it up by playing catch-up and reading all the posts I've missed since I last logged in. I especially like to keep up with the regular posters on here. It's taken me half an hour just to post this with being called away every couple of minutes. :)
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I don't post as much as I would like either. Mainly because of work, but also because I don't know as much as the more involved people do on this forum. The forum, at its best, is a great read, and I will always offer opinions on Cheltenham races.
 
Ricko said:
2.25 - Doncaster - The Ramblin Kid. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1.
Lovely Job is all the rage for this after splitting two horses who have achieved more since on his Stable/Chasing debut at Leicester last time out. A former Irish Point winner, he could be suited by the step up to three miles for the first time under rules but whether he is worth the price he currently is against some very viable alternatives is open to debate. At the relevant odds preference is for the Ramblin Kid. It was too far out to say how he would have fared in a better race at Newcastle over an extended 20 furlongs last time out but he was travelling well and looked to build on his subsequent effort at the same track. That came over an extended 23 furlongs and he was beaten just over a length into fourth of the nine runners. That too, was a better race than this one and he is allowed to race form the same mark today. This is just his fourth start over fences and it would be surprising if he wasn't better than his current rating of 117. His sole win to date came in heavy ground and he is by no means a bad jumper of fences. Sam Twiston Davies takes the ride for the first time.
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This is what happens when I post lately...tailed off.

I'll try 2 against the field at Wolverhampton later.

5.45 - Wolverhampton:
Dalalah. Available at 7/1.
La Manga. Available at 10/1.
 
I've got Baoulet Delaroque in a win double with Caged Lightning. I never back win only. Watch CL come second now. Jammy Guest in this one.
 
not much to get teeth into tonight and no to follows popping up

in the 5.15 Rupert Boy's form behind Kingsley Klarion stands out in context of this race and i've had a little on Stocking+ Sharjah later..a quiet night really
 
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My first post on the much revered "what are you backing today" thead. Here it goes. Blast of koeman 2.40 punchestown. Hasn't been seen since April in punchestown in competitive bumper where he was an eye-catching 6th after being held up in rear for much of the race. I'm hoping the mullins horse will need the run, last seen in 2013. Robert tyners string are running very well at the moment after a relatively quiet spell. Ground shouldn't be a problem. 10/1 taken Ew.
 
Not exactly a price but Tapaculo 1.25 Kempton looks hard to oppose. 4/5 doesn't look too bad given the second fav took seven races to get his head in front.
 
I have tried to look at the Welsh National just like the Grand National, so I profile previous winners by collating their details....trends. There are five I will concentrate on: age, days lto, won a handicap, left handed track win, won at an undulating track.

Age - 10/10 winners were aged 6-8
Days - 10/10 had a run within 55 days. I have been a bit kind here as this race has been postponed
Won a Handicap - 10/10 had at least one win
Left Handed Track - 10/10 all won at one
Undulating course - 10/10 all won at one

That leaves three - Upswing 9/1, Cogry 8/1 and Red Devil Lads 16/1.

Cogry has had three falls to date so can't make that my main selection. So doing these three all e/w
1) Red Devil Lads
2) Upswing
3) Cogry

Good luck lads, let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
 
Toffee said:
I have tried to look at the Welsh National just like the Grand National, so I profile previous winners by collating their details....trends. There are five I will concentrate on: age, days lto, won a handicap, left handed track win, won at an undulating track.

Age - 10/10 winners were aged 6-8
Days - 10/10 had a run within 55 days. I have been a bit kind here as this race has been postponed
Won a Handicap - 10/10 had at least one win
Left Handed Track - 10/10 all won at one
Undulating course - 10/10 all won at one

That leaves three - Upswing 9/1, Cogry 8/1 and Red Devil Lads 16/1.

Cogry has had three falls to date so can't make that my main selection. So doing these three all e/w
1) Red Devil Lads
2) Upswing
3) Cogry

Good luck lads, let's hope they all come back safe and sound.
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Already posted this on the Welsh national thread. You need to adjust your age filter. Every horse gained a year with the race being postponed.
 
Thanks TheBear, too late for me now as at the Everton game. Don't have my notes and a pain trying to go through other horses on phone. Fingers crossed mate, nice one for mentioning the age as I wasn't aware of the year change
 
Ptit Zig's jumping is absolutely horrific. Something has to be wrong with him somewhere. Started his chasing career nicely.
 
3.40 chellar thriller

bit of a cliff horse this one..been on my list for some time.2nd jul.[went too fast]...kept it because i think they've been trying to find its trip..which i think is todays..with no ther pace horse..can lead these and should win..last chance saloon
 
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Fairyhouse 2.20
Bright New Dawn surely has a great opportunity here to end his losing run. Last time's second to Felix Yonger comfortably the best recent form on offer and Jack Kennedy takes 5lb off his back. 4/1 with Betfred taken


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Dandys Perier 12.45 Wolverhampton

c/d winner lto , same jockey , stable in good form , looks a decent each way bet at 10/1 ,made all last time so will put some low price lays in to cover stake.
 
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Wolverhampton 2.20
Southern Seas bt Q Ten Girl 18L carrying 4lb extra – Southern Seas 16lb better off today

Q Ten Girl bt Frivolous Lady 2 1/2L level weights – Frivolous Lady 12lb better off today

Sky Ferry finished 1L ahead of Q Ten Girl receiving 6lbs – Sky ferry 8lb better off today

Global Adventure finished 1L behind Q Ten Girl giving her 12lb and is 18lb better off today

Global Adventure finished 1L Ahead of Bohemian Origin giving that horse 19lb they race off levels

Conclusion
1st Southern Seas
2nd Global Adventure
3rd Sky Ferry
4th Frivolous Lady
5th Q Ten Girl
6th Bohemian Origin

Obviously there are different distances & courses to be taken into consideration so not taking this too seriously, just thought I’d put it up to see how close I get to the result.
 
3.25 Rizal Park drops into a 0-60 here..and T Murphy back on..trainer caught my eye with Muhtaris yesterday who put in a good time at big odds..i think this one is ready based on stable form..worth a shot here imo at 14.0



no..he'll drop another 20/1 shot in when i'm not looking
 
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I backed Gino Train ew yesterday when there were still 5 runners; now down to 4. What now happens if he comes second? David Bridgewater seems to get his horses ready to run FTO and he thinks a lot of this rather fragile horse.
 
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