What are you backing Today?
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Well done Hezz 
links781
Journeyman
Just the two for me today.......
Tanks for that 2.05,really fancy this today.a cut above these I fancy
Prospect wells Tolworth
Gl all
Tanks for that 2.05,really fancy this today.a cut above these I fancy
Prospect wells Tolworth
Gl all
Ling 2.45 Fratellino Win @ 22/1 ( Lay stake back IR @ 3.6/ 1.71/1.23/1.05)
Oasis Dancer place lay @ bf sp
A race better than the normal dross, where predicting whether later races in the a/w calendar are on the agenda.
Malcheek looks vastly overpriced on his a/w record, but the market has probably over reacted to him being a 7f specialist.
The front two simply look too short for me, although I would favour Capone over Oasis Dancer.
Oasis Dancer is obviously highly regarded and very well backed today, but I do have serious reservations about his last win, although he did win it with ease and possibly not run to suit.
He was up against two confirmed 5f speedsters, yet the early fractions of the race were bordering on slow. Picean, a confirmed "hold up/slowly away" horse was with the leaders inside the 2nd furlong. Race pace did pick up, with OD winning by 4lths, but a 6lb rise for winning a modest 4k contest, makes him worth opposing at the price.
Fratellino also come under possibly one for the future category, but the difference with this entire is he rarely gets to the track and opportunities may be rare for these kind of horses with problems. He has two pieces of form at the track which could be described as fair over 5 & 7f, off lay off's so the absence is no real concern considering the price, but horses like Five Star Junior actually have a stronger chance form wise.
What does give me hope was his final run of last season, when 2nd to Pastoral Player with the 1st time tt, looks a strong race with all the winning and placed horses going onto much higher marks.
The horse is still hard to assess having so few runs at 3 & 4yo and his strongest form to date is over a straight course, but with my doubts about the market leaders, I'm happy to play at the price.
Oasis Dancer place lay @ bf sp
A race better than the normal dross, where predicting whether later races in the a/w calendar are on the agenda.
Malcheek looks vastly overpriced on his a/w record, but the market has probably over reacted to him being a 7f specialist.
The front two simply look too short for me, although I would favour Capone over Oasis Dancer.
Oasis Dancer is obviously highly regarded and very well backed today, but I do have serious reservations about his last win, although he did win it with ease and possibly not run to suit.
He was up against two confirmed 5f speedsters, yet the early fractions of the race were bordering on slow. Picean, a confirmed "hold up/slowly away" horse was with the leaders inside the 2nd furlong. Race pace did pick up, with OD winning by 4lths, but a 6lb rise for winning a modest 4k contest, makes him worth opposing at the price.
Fratellino also come under possibly one for the future category, but the difference with this entire is he rarely gets to the track and opportunities may be rare for these kind of horses with problems. He has two pieces of form at the track which could be described as fair over 5 & 7f, off lay off's so the absence is no real concern considering the price, but horses like Five Star Junior actually have a stronger chance form wise.
What does give me hope was his final run of last season, when 2nd to Pastoral Player with the 1st time tt, looks a strong race with all the winning and placed horses going onto much higher marks.
The horse is still hard to assess having so few runs at 3 & 4yo and his strongest form to date is over a straight course, but with my doubts about the market leaders, I'm happy to play at the price.
icebreaker
At the Start
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Great write-up, Doomster, and so spot-on re Fratellino.
EC1
On a break
best bet in last race 4.00 for me..Roalco De Farges looks major value to me
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Skint looked major value to me........shows you what we know
rorydelargy
At the Start
I'm stunned that Fratellino went no lower than 11.0 in-running.
I think it was the fact that the fav travelled so well, the hold up's hampered each other and front running at this track is so hard. I can't blame the jockey as he had to commit, although he is guilty of one of the worst rides I've seen here, on Heading To First.
I'd imagine the winner will go for The Cleves Listed race over C&D next month.
Southwell 12.50 The Magic Of Rio 2 pts win @ 4/1 BOG
Possibly the saddest bet I've tipped up but my money is on.
The horse is rated 42, 3lb out of the h/cap, having dropped from his last win when raised to 90, racking up a losing sequence of 18 losing races over the last 3 years.
A more depressing fact is Evans claimed it out of the Grayson yard ( can someone please why it was claimed for 10k, when Ebraam rated 90 went for 12k in the same race ?) and even he failed with it. Now with John Balding, it's not really a case of whether he can win, but who is the least likely to lose in this dire field.
Canadian Danehill stands out on his recent run behind Chester Deelyte and Wreningham, with the 1st e/s on, but if you look at the trainers recent placement of the horse, it does indicate he feels he's a better horse at Wolverhampton, even though he has wins over f/s in his heyday. He did finish behind TMOR on his previous run along with Bird Dog and TMOR was running off a 9 month break.
He did show early speed from the rail and if he can break in the same fashion from a better draw and decent jockey, he may be able to hang on.
Evans ran him non stop from claiming him, so it will be interesting to see how he performs after a break of a month.
The other negative for me with Canadian Danehill is the Jake Payne booking, even in this point and shoot contest.
At the risk of sounding totally nuts, Clanachy, rated 36, might be worth a look at big odds, simply on the basis of the horse having a break, not many miles on the clock and the hope that fibresand may improve him. He possibly looks like a horse that has been running with problems, as well as being slow. As they are all slow in this, it might not be that much of an issue.
EC1
On a break
just a couple of lays today for me..2.00 Chartreux & 2.50 Ishiamiracle at 1.87 & 2.0
icebreaker
At the Start
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Go and collect, Mr EC1 ! Job done.
Sweet little double Lay. Well done.
Sweet little double Lay. Well done.
graysonscolumn
Apprentice
I think that was due to the weight each horse was put in at for that claiming race.
Excluding riders' claims, overweight, etc., Ebraam got a racing weight of 8-11 for having been put in for £12,000, whilst The Magic Of Rio got a weight of 8-4 for having been put in for £10,000.
I notice that Lewyn was claimed for £15,000 having raced off 8-9, however, which wouldn't quite fit in with the above - worth more but weighted less than Ebraam.
I wonder if Lewyn being a 3yo in a 3yo+ contest meant she got an age allowance that brought her down to 8-9 from - let's just say for example - a weight of 9-0 that a horse put in for £15,000 would've got in that contest ordinarily.
Unfortunately I've not got the precise race conditions for that now 20-month-old race to hand, though, nor have I been able to find them yet on the internet. Maybe someone can advise / confirm further?
gc
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EC1
On a break
Thanks for the reply Grey.
I wasn't very clear with my post
My point really was: why the hell would anyone pay 10k for a horse that poorly rated, even if it was younger and Evans has a knack of improving horses.
The race was won purely by Jockey talent, who did actually have the best stats on his limited runs.
I really thought TMOR would have been allowed to run lose and let the rest chase, but he pulled his head off from the start.
Well done EC1.
I wasn't very clear with my post
My point really was: why the hell would anyone pay 10k for a horse that poorly rated, even if it was younger and Evans has a knack of improving horses.
The race was won purely by Jockey talent, who did actually have the best stats on his limited runs.
I really thought TMOR would have been allowed to run lose and let the rest chase, but he pulled his head off from the start.
Well done EC1.
graysonscolumn
Apprentice
Ah, oops! My bad, as I believe the young people say nowadays. :-D
gc
gc
graysonscolumn
Apprentice
They probably did so in the bounden belief that, low-40s rated or not, there was still some ability to work with; and that the horse's plummet from a mark of 90 inside of two years had been significantly (wholly?) due to the trainer.
Even by his variable standards, 2010 was a truly desperate year for my namesake trainer, and it was a surprise to me only that more apparently outstandingly handicapped animals weren't claimed out of his ailing yard whenever the opportunity arose.
See also Hada Men, a winner for Brian Ellison at Southwell this Tuesday just gone. A horse that had gone missing for 20 months or so, only to plummet from a mid-70s to a mid-40s mark inside of six months on return, wouldn't be everybody's idea of something to fork out six grand on; but Ellison must have taken the view that Hada Men's decline was less about any lingering effects of his layoff and more about the fact the ex-Cumani inmate returned to action trained by Tina Jackson (Flat strike-rate since January 2008: just 1-65).
So far so good judged on that winning debut for Ellison, then, and the gelding will remain historically very well handicapped even if turning out penalised before next weekend. He's in again at the Rolleston venue this coming Tuesday.
gc
Even by his variable standards, 2010 was a truly desperate year for my namesake trainer, and it was a surprise to me only that more apparently outstandingly handicapped animals weren't claimed out of his ailing yard whenever the opportunity arose.
See also Hada Men, a winner for Brian Ellison at Southwell this Tuesday just gone. A horse that had gone missing for 20 months or so, only to plummet from a mid-70s to a mid-40s mark inside of six months on return, wouldn't be everybody's idea of something to fork out six grand on; but Ellison must have taken the view that Hada Men's decline was less about any lingering effects of his layoff and more about the fact the ex-Cumani inmate returned to action trained by Tina Jackson (Flat strike-rate since January 2008: just 1-65).
So far so good judged on that winning debut for Ellison, then, and the gelding will remain historically very well handicapped even if turning out penalised before next weekend. He's in again at the Rolleston venue this coming Tuesday.
gc
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Paul Nichol's Double Expresso who won 3 of his first 4 races and finished 3rd to Boston Angel in a decent novice hurdle at Doncaster. On that kind of form he win the ifrst at Tauton doing handstands.
However as of yet he's given no indication he's on the way back with his latest effort. Sent chasing on his first run since joining PN he was enever really going that well and by 4 out he was a spent force. Unable to put one leg in front of the after crawling over the 3rd last he was pulled up by which time he was tailed off.
No doubt most of these couldn't even go the pace the winner Lacomen and the rest went that day and Double Expresso should find it much easier to stay in touch.
I just wasn't convinced there is that much to work on with this fella when I watched his last race.
There was very little to like about his effort. Poor jumps never quite managing to get on terms and weakened so far out there had to be more to it then needing the run.
He is also dropping 7f back in trip for the first time in 2 years.
He's a short priced fav but I fancy he could find one of these too good for him if the horse behaves himslef.
Advisor was being touted as a Triumph horse before he even jumped a hurdle and romped home in his first hurdle race for PN. He then won at Ascot before flopping in the Triumph. He can be abit of a characher as Michael Bell found out when he went to him for the flat season. He finished 2nd then nothing and somehow ended up with the Westons.
He went to Hereford for a seller and although it was a bit of a nothing race he jumped brillianty and travelled like a dream and won very easilt. Tom Weston's only worry was he was akward at the second last and half way up the run in he idled a bit to have a look at the racegoers or whatever.
If we went back to both their early days Advisor was the better hurdler rated 135 going into the Triumph and Double Expresso highest ever rating was 129.
Today Advisor gets 2 lbs although the claiming riders have them back on levels. PLus Advisor has shown he's in good form while Double Expresso ran like a mule last time and the betting looks topsy turvy
Advisor could revert to spitting the dummy out but he look a vary happy horse last time, something you couldn't say about Double Expresso.
No doubt PN can improve them very quickly but I've already had my few bucks on Advisor at 4.85 to 3.75 to win and 2.1 to 2 for aplace.
The latter could be a stonking bet as all the rest look like they have it to do.
However as of yet he's given no indication he's on the way back with his latest effort. Sent chasing on his first run since joining PN he was enever really going that well and by 4 out he was a spent force. Unable to put one leg in front of the after crawling over the 3rd last he was pulled up by which time he was tailed off.
No doubt most of these couldn't even go the pace the winner Lacomen and the rest went that day and Double Expresso should find it much easier to stay in touch.
I just wasn't convinced there is that much to work on with this fella when I watched his last race.
There was very little to like about his effort. Poor jumps never quite managing to get on terms and weakened so far out there had to be more to it then needing the run.
He is also dropping 7f back in trip for the first time in 2 years.
He's a short priced fav but I fancy he could find one of these too good for him if the horse behaves himslef.
Advisor was being touted as a Triumph horse before he even jumped a hurdle and romped home in his first hurdle race for PN. He then won at Ascot before flopping in the Triumph. He can be abit of a characher as Michael Bell found out when he went to him for the flat season. He finished 2nd then nothing and somehow ended up with the Westons.
He went to Hereford for a seller and although it was a bit of a nothing race he jumped brillianty and travelled like a dream and won very easilt. Tom Weston's only worry was he was akward at the second last and half way up the run in he idled a bit to have a look at the racegoers or whatever.
If we went back to both their early days Advisor was the better hurdler rated 135 going into the Triumph and Double Expresso highest ever rating was 129.
Today Advisor gets 2 lbs although the claiming riders have them back on levels. PLus Advisor has shown he's in good form while Double Expresso ran like a mule last time and the betting looks topsy turvy
Advisor could revert to spitting the dummy out but he look a vary happy horse last time, something you couldn't say about Double Expresso.
No doubt PN can improve them very quickly but I've already had my few bucks on Advisor at 4.85 to 3.75 to win and 2.1 to 2 for aplace.
The latter could be a stonking bet as all the rest look like they have it to do.
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EC1
On a break
I think Double Expresso will bomb out as well..I could actually see Fulgora winning it..but as DE is now trading at 2/1 i'll just lay it..needs further on top of having bugger all in hand of at least 3 of these
EC1
On a break
Thanks EC, I had a sneaky fiver on Fulgora at 30 on the machine after seeing your remark.
i was expecting Fulgora to be about 6/1..me eyes popped out when i checked the BF price
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