What are you backing Today?

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Can’t resist a pop at Shantou Village in the Kerry Nash at 14/1 (5 places with Paddy). A good run on softer going than he likes in the race last year and he should appreciate the better ground today off a 4lb lower mark.

Also gone for Ravenhill at 9/1 who should improve for the return to 3m


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viking said:
Can’t resist a pop at Shantou Village in the Kerry Nash at 14/1 (5 places with Paddy). A good run on softer going than he likes in the race last year and he should appreciate the better ground today off a 4lb lower mark.

Also gone for Ravenhill at 9/1 who should improve for the return to 3m

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I like Some Neck. He had to give weight to Yorkhill last time, and if he'd been put into the race earlier he'd have won. The extra distance will help today, but he's also 15lb's better off with Yorkhill than last time. 12's e/w is much bigger than I expected to get. I can only assume there's doubts about the ground, but I don't see that in his profile.

I also like Poker Party if his jumping holds up. Young enough to be unexposed and only 5 handicap chases to his name. The doubt is obviously whether he can see it out on soft ground. Hopefully Rachel Blackmore will nurse him round and pick them off. At 16/1 he's a nice ew price.
 
Great shout. Looked like we were going to have the 1-2-3 between us until Robbie fell off


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Morning

5.55 Listowl-Mount Hanover

Each Way @ 11-2 [Paddy Power]

Think he will make a decent chaser
 
I'm not sure many can win the handicap hurdle at Listowal, plus I have the favourite a terrible price at 11/8. I understand why he's being backed though when won last year and he's 28lb's better off than his chase mark. The fact is though he's a much better chaser so he's not value for the difference. Plus he's 11lb higher than in the same race last year, and he wouldn't have won it off his current mark.

I've taken three each way:

In market order first up is Mr Everest who has the perfect profile of a lightly weighted, well handicapped Tony Martin horse. I thought he'd be vying for favouritism and too short, not third favourite and easily backable ew at 7/1. It does make me worry that perhaps today isn't the day, but nevertheless I've still backed him

The second selection is Chosen Mate. I reckon he could be absolutely chucked in. The worry would be Gordon Elliott's form, but on previous form his run behind Reserve Tank, Brewinupastorm, and Angel's breath at Aintree reads very well against mark of 142 for a totally unexposed horse. I've backed him at 10/1 ew. He could have enough in hand to defy the worries about the stable.

The third is a horse with a very different profile than the other two. Lakemilan should be too exposed after 22 runs over hurdles having never won off her mark, but each race has it's own context. She comes into the race in decent form having won and also finishing second to Ballyoisin over fences recently. Ballyoisin is also comparatively much better off with her over hurdles so you'd think she hasn't a chance. But watch last years race where she ran well to finish fifth only 8 lengths behind Ballyoisin. She on a mark 2lb's higher this year. But Denis O'Reagan put up 2lb's overweight last year so she's effectively running off the same mark. This year however she has one of the best claimers around taking off 7lb. He's value for everyone of those pounds and an eye catching booking. Under the same conditions she'd have gone close last year. On the other hand Ballyoisin is 11lb higher this year so she's a full 18lb better off with him for an 8 lengths beating. 14/1 ew is a steal.

In addition to the three of them I've put Ballyoisin in with them in combination exctas and trifectas.
 
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Marb said:
There's not many trainers who I'd trust to turn a horses form around, but Iain Jardine is definitely one. Good jockey booking too. I fancy him, therefore when I saw the money it looked shrewd. Subjective as opposed to objective opinion, of course.
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About Glory entered in four different races in the next few days. Only raised 3 pound in the handicap. Will be watching where he runs closely.
 
I can never underestimate a filly with excellent handicap form, such as Solar Gold in the first race tomorrow, who ran a screamer when just behind the very talented handicapper Vale Of Kent who is now rated 108 in his own right. Solar Gold is officially rated 98, but on the Bunbury Cup run, if you assume Vale Of Kent ran to his very best that day, Solar Gold could be nearer to a 105+ horse.

There's early support in the betting market for Solar Gold which looks good too. At a much bigger price, Breathtaking Look has some decent handicap form and may be worth having a small saver on at 25/1.

I reckon Theglascowwarrior warrants the selection in the second race. He's one who will appreciate the small amount of runners in the race.

Good luck (if like me) you are in for a penny - in for a pound tomorrow.
 
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Pretty Baby, 210 Don has already won half the races she's contested, including 2 Gp3's, the 2nd one on her seasonal debut when Lingfield's soft ground wouldn't have been in her favour. Just 2 races since; failing to stay the strongly run. soft ground mile at Royal Ascot and her 16/17 draw ( dropped in - normally races prominently ) killed any chance she may have had at Goodwood.
Has 3lb penalty to carry, but with fast ground right up her street and the boss judge of pace in the plate, she has a better chance than her price allows.
7/1 generally.
 
More money in the market for Solar Gold this morning.

Fwiw, Vale Of Kent entered in the Group 2 Joel Stakes later this month.

Good luck though, Reet. May the best horse win. :)
 
Marb said:
I can never underestimate a filly with excellent handicap form, such as Solar Gold in the first race tomorrow, who ran a screamer when just behind the very talented handicapper Vale Of Kent who is now rated 108 in his own right. Solar Gold is officially rated 98, but on the Bunbury Cup run, if you assume Vale Of Kent ran to his very best that day, Solar Gold could be nearer to a 105+ horse.

There's early support in the betting market for Solar Gold which looks good too. At a much bigger price, Breathtaking Look has some decent handicap form and may be worth having a small saver on at 25/1.

I reckon Theglascowwarrior warrants the selection in the second race. He's one who will appreciate the small amount of runners in the race.

Good luck (if like me) you are in for a penny - in for a pound tomorrow.
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Get in there marb. Nice - took 36 on the machine.
 
Cheers. The handicap form was worth its salt.

I've posted tomorrows thoughts on my blog but will stick here.

Roger Varian's Turjomaan (NAP 11/4) looks a really solid second favourite at Doncaster in the 2:25, having improved markedly for the step up to group two company the last day. Blinkers are applied again: I reckon Shine So Bright has one tough opponent to crack in the shape of Turjomaan. Non Runner.

In the Portland, Makanah (NB 18/1) warrants a good each way bet. I like the fact he was gelded after leaving Crisford's yard to run for Julie Camancho. The horse has come on leaps and bounds since then, improving from 73 to a mark of 97 in the handicap ratings. He out ran the odds the last day when 40/1 at York, I think he's coming here less exposed with less mileage than a few others. Embour also looks to have a strong chance for Richard Hannon but I had to pick one so Makanah gets the verdict.

The Leger should be between the front two if you believe the betting, although at present I reckon the betting market is underestimating Sir Ron Priestly, (could be supported on raceday?) and probably Technician too, with preference for the former. Sir Ron has done nothing but improve when rising through the handicaps and I always feel that top handicap form is slightly overlooked in these group races.
 
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Good Luck

6.00 Leopardstown-Current Option

Each Way @ 11-2 [Paddy Power] 5 Places

Has a touch of class about him
 
Marb said:
Cheers. The handicap form was worth its salt.

I've posted tomorrows thoughts on my blog but will stick here.

Roger Varian's Turjomaan (NAP 11/4) looks a really solid second favourite at Doncaster in the 2:25, having improved markedly for the step up to group two company the last day. Blinkers are applied again: I reckon Shine So Bright has one tough opponent to crack in the shape of Turjomaan.

In the Portland, Makanah (NB 18/1) warrants a good each way bet. I like the fact he was gelded after leaving Crisford's yard to run for Julie Camancho. The horse has come on leaps and bounds since then, improving from 73 to a mark of 97 in the handicap ratings. He out ran the odds the last day when 40/1 at York, I think he's coming here less exposed with less mileage than a few others. Embour also looks to have a strong chance for Richard Hannon but I had to pick one so Makanah gets the verdict.

The Leger should be between the front two if you believe the betting, although at present I reckon the betting market is undestimating Sir Ron Priestly, (could be supported on raceday?) and probably Technician too, with preference for the former. Sir Ron has done nothing but improve when rising through the handicaps and I always feel that top handicap form is slightly overlooked in these group races.
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With you on Makanah, also the Leger forecast but with Sir Dragonet to beat the fav (around 9/2 currently).
Wish you luck, naturally. :)
 
Will have to back Makanah purely for the fact that, after Julie Camancho had that good winner the other week I spent ages racking my brains to remember that jumper she had way back.Of course, it was Avro Anson and I read Makanah as 'Meccano' so a bet must be placed [albeit a very small one..].
 
Marb said:
The Leger should be between the front two if you believe the betting, although at present I reckon the betting market is underestimating Sir Ron Priestly, (could be supported on raceday?) and probably Technician too, with preference for the former. Sir Ron has done nothing but improve when rising through the handicaps and I always feel that top handicap form is slightly overlooked in these group races.
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The money is coming for Sir Ron Priestly on race day as I felt might happen, hopefully its telling!
 
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Also backed Cusp Of Carabelli in the next (3:25) at Listowel. Big chance off the bottom weight and well punted too.

Outsider has just PM'd me to tell me that one of my trackers, Admirality, is running at Leopardstown in the 6:00 later - apparently well backed. I'll have a look but probably leave it. I'm not sure. I did say I'd given up on him...

Edit - Admirality will need to win today to have any chance of being a contender in the Ayr Gold Cup next week.
 
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You'd say Logician would be an Ascot Gold Cup horse for next year probably wanting the same campaign as Stradivarius. It's a nice problem for Gosden to have.
 
Yeah.

There is racing at the Curragh tomorrow. The first handicap (1:20) has loads of runners and some theoretical betting angles.

Bookmakers go 7/1 the field. Furthermore, Paddy Power go 1/5 the odds the first six places.
This is the type of race I like to have a go at.

Twenty Minutes 33/1 general price beat Castletownshend and Miss Jabeam in May at Naas. The upward curve he was on beforehand must have been down to the new headgear, (tongue-tie and cheekpieces) which they put on him this season. He ran an excellent second a month later in a competitive 25K handicap behind one of tomorrows leading contenders, Buffer Zone. Twenty Minutes has been tried over further distances. Hence, he stays well in these sprint races with plenty of stamina. He ran a nice race at Laytown on the sand a few days ago when second to Confident Kid, when giving him plenty of weight.

In short, its hard to pick one of the market leaders against any other one of the market leaders purely on paper form, but what I can sat about Twenty Minutes is that he's improving, wears the now-familiar headgear so must not be underestimated for a bet provided good each way terms with bookmakers offering five or six places. Hopefully his jockey won't leave it too late though. Ideally if he gets out the stalls quick enough, he wants to sit in the first ten, and work his way closer near the business end. If one or two of the favourites has an off day anything could happen.
 
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