What are you backing Today?

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Ludlow 1:15

Irish Octave has a strike rate of 7/19 over fences, won 35 grand in total prize money and will race with a rating of just 114, carrying ten stone.

The above tells you its own story, which is that Irish Octave punches above expectations more often than not and could be still well handicapped to land the prize.

My type of horse this one - 12/1 outsider of the field doesn't do him justice.
 
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Good luck

4.15 Kempton-Es Que Magic

Each Way @ 14-1 [Bet Victor] 4 Places

Has the ability if ready to go after break
 
Though he hasn't had much luck since returning from his long break, there's definite signs that Reckless Endeavour 2.00N'c is a few lbs better than his current rating, and looks well worth an ew poke @ the 8/1 generally.
 
More chance of me backing the 2020 Arc winner than something over the jumps at present.
 
Catterick 1:00. I am usually hesitant about backing Jonjo O Neill horses. In my opinion they often appear weak in the market too. However, Constante Via looks absoloutely laid out to win a handicap hurdle. She has useful form thus far and can go one better tomorrow. It will be interesting to see as to what price we'll get. His son rides.
 
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Marb said:
Catterick 1:00. I am usually hesitant about backing Jonjo O Neill horses. In my opinion they often appear weak in the market too. However, Constante Via looks absoloutely laid out to win a handicap hurdle. She has useful form thus far and can go one better tomorrow. It will be interesting to see as to what price we'll get. His son rides.
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7/1 with Hills
 
I am watching Phillip Kirby's horses tomorrow.

The days where I could predict a trainer landing three or four winners are long gone...but I see this trainer has some chances tomorrow.

Newcastle
3.30 Mr Carbonator

Catt
1:35 L'Attendue
2:40 Little Bruce
3:45 Romeo Brown

Do these lot have a chance?
 
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Plenty of pace in the 5.30 @ Chelmsford, which should make for a proper test over this 5f.
Augustus Caesar should be better equipped than most to deal with it, having been close up behind a horse that now has an OR of 97, over the siffest 5 in AW racing,@ Southwell.
Looks a solid bet at around 9/2.
 
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Fen Breeze 6.45W probably ran a piece better than her rating allows at Newmarket in June. In a hot race and down in trip, she ran well but wasn't persevered with after getting outpaced from the distance. Her subsequent run is easily forgiven as she was reported lame after the race, which probably explains her absence since.
Encouraging that her stable seems to be running into form, she's down in class and returns to the track where she's done so well previously.
Price has been shot to bits since I penned this, but still 5/1 with B365.
 
I took 14/1 ew 4pl Echiquier last night in the Lanzarote.

I do feel compelled to reiterate that I'm unable to study form in detail for the time being (we'll see how things are at the end of April but I planned to skip the Flat season anyway) so there is an element of guesswork in the selection.

However, he's top-rated on RPRs and I am not convinced the front few in the market will be trying.

Burrows Edge, for example. I thought he could have won first time up last season but NdB mistimed his run, trying to win too narrowly. I backed it next time out and checked my files last night. I noted:

I was never really happy with the ride NDB was giving Burrows Edge. Maybe he thought he’d outclass the field and it didn’t matter how wide he travelled but it looked like they went too fast up front and Burrows edge was hauled along with the pace and not hurdling particularly fluently. Even Mahlervous’s rider realised he was in a poor position out wide and eased him back and then in behind nearer the inside. The one I was watching through the race was My Way to see if it was the key and I think maybe it was. Held back off the pace in midfield he appeared to make his move at the perfect time just straightening up for two out but Wicked Willy who was ridden from much further back ultimately came through to ease away. It was either a luckily-judged or brilliant tactical ride from 7lb claimer Nailor. I’ll watch how he rides in future.
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I thought Burrows Edge was by far the best horse in that race, the consolation one for those that didn't make the cut at Cheltenham. He missed the cut by 1lb and I can see him running into a place here to get him up to 133/134 or maybe they'll take a chance on making it this year of this mark and accept the consolation if that's how it works out. The consolation is worth similar money to today's modest prize (considering what a big race the Lanzarote used to be).

Re Notre Pari, you never really know with JP horses. He's probably got something (or two or three) better lined up for the Coral Cup but he's up 8lbs from last time and will need to go up again to get a run at the festival, if that's on the agenda.

Harry Skelton appears to fancy his barra at Warwick so leaves Northofthewall for his other half to ride. That's not to say she can't win but I imagine Skelton will get some sort of joy at Warwick.

I think it could be a bit of an iffy race and am happy to row along with the one with, on RPRs, the best form at a nice price for an extra place.

Pure guesswork. :)
 
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What do u make of the Classic at Warwick Dessie? Rowed in with the top weight given the claimer and the trainer being in slightly better form now.

This time of year I like to put marginal fancies in the sub 3/1 range in doubles with Cheltenham horses.

Have Highest Sun tied in with Battleoverdoyen (Minella Indo cover)

Harry Senior doubled with Aspire Tower
 
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Euronymous said:
What do u make of the Classic at Warwick Dessie? Rowed in with the top weight given the claimer and the trainer being in slightly better form now.

This time of year I like to put marginal fancies in the sub 3/1 range in doubles with Cheltenham horses.

Have Highest Sun tied in with Battleoverdoyen (Minella Indo cover)

Harry Senior doubled with Aspire Tower
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I referenced Highest Sun yesterday on another thread relative to the Pym formline.

When looking at today's race again last night with a view to a bet, the one fear I had about Highest sun was his current OR of 142 . It's absolutely perfect rating for the close bros at the festival, if he currently has the 6 - 9 lbs in hand, that I think he does.

Appreciate today is a 3m race, and maybe that is his ideal trip. But part of me suspects they might be holding him for the festival.

If he wins a grade 2 over 3m today and goes up to high 140's he'll be in no man's land for the festival. Surely not good enough for the RSA and H'Cap mark blown for any other race.

I could be wrong, but it was enough to put me off going in on him today.
 
Euronymous said:
What do u make of the Classic at Warwick Dessie?
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Can't say I make anything of it, Euro, as I haven't been able to study.

I should be going for four in a row this year but will maybe just have a small bet for interest's sake. If pushed, I might suggest Le Breuil but it would be little more than a guess. Joueur Bresilien, if it stays, might be good enough for a place but I don't really want to commit to anything without knowing the form.
 
Already put Fizzy Feet up elsewhere, but I'll double him with Goring 2.00L for a nice 13.5/1 double @ current prices.
 
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