2000 Guineas

Ardross said:
Rain expected today .

War Command surely does run as Moore booked and Fallon and Dettori on the other Hannon runners.
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It's down to 14 now and others can be expected to drop out if there is significant rain on an already watered course. O'Brien has pulled two of his four out. War Command should go very well if the ground is decent. Gosden doesn't want it fast for Kingman and it looks as though they have watered to ensure the favourite takes part (which he almost certainly would have without it). They're holding off watering further for the time being.
 
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Skybet Odds:

Kingman (6/4), Australia (3/1), Toormore (7/1), War Command (8/1), Kingston Hill (10/1), Noozhoh Canarias (16/1), Night Of Thunder (20/1), Charm Spirit (25/1), Ertijaal (25/1), Outstrip (25/1), Bookrunner (33/1), Shifting Power (33/1), The Grey Gatsby (50/1), Master The World (100/1)
 
SteveM said:
It's down to 14 now and others can be expected to drop out if there is significant rain on an already watered course. O'Brien has pulled two of his four out. War Command should go very well if the ground is decent. Gosden doesn't want it fast for Kingman and it looks as though they have watered to ensure the favourite takes part (which he almost certainly would have without it). They're holding off watering further for the time being.
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Gosden says he doesn't want it fast for Kingman yet worked him on the decidedly firm Limekilns on Sunday instead of opting to use the watered gallop race course side.
 
continuous drizzle this morning at newmarket but not much fallen really. 2mm reported.

stall 1 for kingman hardly ideal.
 
I can't have Kingman at that price in a classic given he's had a problem and has the risk of bouncing off a massive effort. He could be a serious horse though but he's not my sort of price. I think Night of Thunder ran a big ran first up behind him and he could easily fill the frame again and is a very big price.

The main value is with the two French runners Bookrunner and Charm Spirit who ran in the Djebel. It was a bunch finish but both runners are going to come on a bundle and the time was very strong.
 
last nights bout of heavy rain managed to miss the rowley mile. only 2mm yesterday and course good to firm, good in place. nervy 24 hours for kingman antepost backers. lets hope luca cumani's going stick was right.
 
I got a couple of ideas.

Outstrip raced very keenly in the Dewhurst. He settled a lot better in the US.
Outstrip's dam was a late bloomer. She didn't race until the spring of her 3yo career, and was winning group races up until the ages of 5/6.
 
Ardross said:
Nobody has yet come up with a good reason why Outstrip should reverse the Vintage Stakes form with Toormore .
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Considering Outstrip would have very likely beaten Toormore had he been held on to that day. Then maybe you should give a reason why Toormore will uphold the form?
 
Miesque said:
Currently persistent drizzle at HQ and has been all morning since 9am.
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From the RP:
Clerk of the course Michael Prosser reported the ground as remaining good to firm, good in places on the eve of the race.

Prosser said: "Basically we got lucky as they had more rain over on Warren Hill than we had on the racecourse.

"There were some heavy showers coming off the North Sea through Thetford but they split. Overall, yesterday in total we had 2.2mm of rain and we might get a further 0-0.2mm this morning and then it is forecast to be dry over the weekend."
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Prosser is being rather economical with the levels. James Tate's yard had 5mm of rain and it's practically on the race course (Hamilton Road). I'd guess the truth is between the two. the course drains exceptionally well though so it should handle it well.

Walking the course one last time this evening. Will report back. Do we have to provid Cumani-esque going stick photos? :D
 
Frankel said:
Considering Outstrip would have very likely beaten Toormore had he been held on to that day. Then maybe you should give a reason why Toormore will uphold the form?
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I think Outstrip has a chance but you're overstating the case above. He may have done better but he would not have "very likely beaten" Toormore, who was well on top at the end. It was a good run though and 28s with Hills is big. Fact Godolphin rely on him also a positive for me.

Toormore could have been more impressive in Craven but I think Hannon learned a lesson last year with Toronado and didn't want Toormore too wound up for the trial. Liked his run at the Curragh last year and am hopeful he will run a good deal better tomorrow.

At the prices, I can't back Kingman as I have a nggling doubt that he will perform to his very best.

Austraila is either very goodor O'Brien's comments are getting more ridiculous as he gets older. Either way backing him is the same as buying a scratch card unless you're in the know.
 
The outsider that catches my eye is Bookrunner (50/1 in a place now). He’s the least experienced of this field but the trainer knows how to win this race and he’ll surely improve a lot from the Djebel.

But I really can't see past Kingman and the 7/4 looks value. As I said earlier in the thread, I think he should be odds-on. Hopefully some kind bookie will do a 'special' and offer it at silly odds for 15 minutes in the morning...
 
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Frankel said:
Considering Outstrip would have very likely beaten Toormore had he been held on to that day. Then maybe you should give a reason why Toormore will uphold the form?
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No , not a good reason - Toormore was a very cosy winner at the end .
 
BackHander said:
I think Outstrip has a chance but you're overstating the case above. He may have done better but he would not have "very likely beaten" Toormore, who was well on top at the end. It was a good run though and 28s with Hills is big. Fact Godolphin rely on him also a positive for me.
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You say he 'may have done better'. Well considering he was only collared on the line and lost a cosy neck. Then had he held on to him a bit longer or had the chance to follow Toormore then he could have used his speed to better effect. Though hindsight is a wonderful thing.
My whole point is that should Outstrip be so much bigger than Toormore. Not imo.
 
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