2022 Grand National

Last weekend when the forecast was showing for a lot of rain at Aintree, HMS Santini was on my radar, unfortunately those volumes of the wet stuff haven't materialised.
 
Bonjers said:
Lord du Mesnil and Easysland out.

School Boy Hours and Romain de Senam in.
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As long as they’re both okay I’m happy with that as I’d had a speculative punt on SBH in case he got in as can only see him going off much shorter than the 45/1 he was
 
Yeah I have to have a saver on School Boy Hours as I fancied him for Cheltenham.

Outsider is right about Phoenix Way.

Only a young horse and he's best kept for another season.
 
Pretty sure he wouldn't have passed up the National if something else had come out.

Big difference between taking on the top hurdlers at levels and taking on the two he beat last time on hugely better terms than then.
 
jinnyj said:
Thought I was the only one mad enough on here to be supporting Santini!
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All good fun Jinny

I got an even crazier one than that. I'm adding Two for Gold (David Bass) to my portfolio on the exchange hell be about 60/1 and around 3/1 for 10 places tomorrow.

If Santini takes to the fences they could just set him alight . Polly Gundry got more out of him 2 races back than Nicky Henderson could
and stranger things have happened........not a race I have taken seriously since Don't Push It won.........If any of mines are in the first 6 at Beechers 2nd time round I'll be happy
 
Still ahead from yesterday so backing Nico EW Mester Coffey at 7.5 in the next 4 places and have a bit more on Gelino Bello 5/1 EW on the machine 3 places.
 
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Tanlic said:
All good fun Jinny

I got an even crazier one than that. I'm adding Two for Gold (David Bass) to my portfolio on the exchange hell be about 60/1 and around 3/1 for 10 places tomorrow.

If Santini takes to the fences they could just set him alight . Polly Gundry got more out of him 2 races back than Nicky Henderson could
and stranger things have happened........not a race I have taken seriously since Don't Push It won.........If any of mines are in the first 6 at Beechers 2nd time round I'll be happy
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Yeah he’s been x country schooling just up the road from me..... I followed the horsebox back into Taunton the other day. And he goes out twice a day as he is so stuffy. Actually Polly is married to Ed Walker who had the horse as a youngster and won his point to point with him so obvious to take him back there.
 
Slim said:
I hope you post this on the forum. Plenty would find it helpful.
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Getting my defence in first...

I was asked to!

So... here it is (and remember it's for non-racing people and I don't really want to discourage them from backing anything they fancy). In card order:

[TABLE="width: 578, align: left"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Odds
(Fri)
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Minella Times
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[TD]Last year’s hero. Continued an upwards curve when winning but has disappointed in two outings this season. Not only needs to rediscover last year’s form but will probably have to be another 12lbs better to win. Hard to fancy.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Delta Work
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[TD]Put dual winner Tiger Roll in his place at Cheltenham last month but this is a much different type of contest. Used to be rated 11lbs higher so entitled to be fancied but has a lot of weight to hump round against smart opponents.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] School Boy Hours
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Finished strongly to win ultra-valuable race at Christmas and another unexposed at staying trips. Needs to improve again, though.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Any Second Now
[/TD]
[TD]10/1
[/TD]
[TD]Trained for the last three Nationals but forced to miss the first two. Unlucky in running last year when a staying-on third but raised 7lbs for it and vulnerable to better-handicapped opponents.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Run Wild Fred
[/TD]
[TD]20/1
[/TD]
[TD]Excellent second to Freewheelin’ Dylan in the influential Irish National last season but maybe overplayed his hand when winning the valuable Troytown this season. Possibly improved again last time at Cheltenham and one of the more fanciable of the higher weights, especially if Davy Russell opts to ride.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Lostintranslation
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Rated 173 when a close third in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup. Relatively disappointing since but a mark of 157 might prove very lenient if he can get back somewhere near his best. Turning up might be a tip in itself.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Brahma Bull
[/TD]
[TD]80/1
[/TD]
[TD]Relatively consistent but no reason to believe he’s handicapped to win any decent race let alone a National.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Burrows Saint
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[TD]Strongly fancied last year (only 9/1) off this mark and looked the winner until two out. Jockey later said he went from wondering how far he would win to completely emptying in the space of a furlong. A year older and might get closer this time. If they found a reason for him stopping it might make all the difference. (If they did, they’ve kept quiet about it!)
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mount Ida
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[TD]Staggering performance to win at Cheltenham last year and reportedly trained for the Gold Cup and this race this year but opted for the Mares’ Chase and disappointed. Tends to jump right-handed (did when winning at left-handed Cheltenham) and prone to mistakes but has never fallen. Has the talent to win but the track might be the problem.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Longhouse Poet
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[TD]Improved to win the valuable Thyestes Chase this season but will need to improve further to win off his new mark. Not impossible for the connections of 2006 winner Numbersixvalverde but a difficult task nonetheless.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fiddlerontheroof
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[TD]Slightly unlucky not to win the very valuable Ladbrokes Trophy this season and looks to have been saved for this since, being unlucky again (lost a shoe) in a valuable Ascot handicap after the weights came out. Officially 2lbs well in and a must for any short list.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Two For Gold
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Officially the best handicapped runner in the race, 5lbs well in following a huge run in the G1 Ascot Chase, and still improving on that evidence. Stamina not guaranteed but was successful at staying trips as a younger horse and possibly unexposed as a stayer.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Santini
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Tipped for the top in his younger days and arguably unlucky not to win the 2020 Gold Cup for which he went up to 172. That race maybe got to him and he moved to his current trainer following a few disappointing runs. She appeared to have reignited his spark the time before last but he was well beaten in the Gold Cup again last month. Realistically, he wasn’t going to win that but if it was a prep for this (off 153) he could easily come home in front.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Samcro
[/TD]
[TD]80/1
[/TD]
[TD]Has never fully lived up to his star billing as a younger horse but is another whose mark has dropped 8lbs from its peak. No strong grounds for believing he’ll stay, though.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Escaria Ten
[/TD]
[TD]16/1
[/TD]
[TD]Smart third in the novices’ stayers’ chase at Cheltenham last year and the winner was one of the favourites for this year’s Gold Cup so every reason to believe this one has been well campaigned to get in here off 152. A must for the short list.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Good Boy Bobby
[/TD]
[TD]33/1
[/TD]
[TD]In good form in soft ground this season and generally improving if you strip out a recent disappointing run. Likely to run very well but others likely to be just that bit better handicapped.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Romain De Senam
[/TD]
[TD]150/1
[/TD]
[TD]Been through more trainers than Mo Farah and nothing in his form to suggest he’ll stay the trip.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Coko Beach
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Might be ‘doing a Farclas’ this year for the same connections, being just seven. Gave Run Wild Fred 2lbs and a beating in the valuable Thyestes Chase last season and is now 8lbs better off. Rain would help. The Irish National on Easter Monday might be a more realistic target.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] De Rasher Counter
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Plagued by injury in the last couple of seasons but is now back on the same mark as when winning the 2019 Ladbrokes Trophy having gone up 9lbs for winning it. One appearance last season over hurdles suggested he was as good as ever and he kept tabs on G1 horses on his only appearance this season until lack of fitness caught up with him. On his Ladbrokes form he has a serious chance at a big price.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Kildisart
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Very lightly raced. Won the 3m1f handicap chase at this meeting off this mark in 2019, promising to go on to much better things. Was probably targeting the 2020 National which fell victim to the Covid outbreak and for which he would have been 4lbs well in off 151 and gets in here off 148 so could have a shout. The owners’ retained jockey has opted for Good Boy Bobby, though.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Discorama
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Well backed at 16/1 off a pound higher last year but appeared not to get home and no reason to assume any different an outcome this time.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Top Ville Ben
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Won a good handicap at Wetherby in 2019 and put up to 164 for it. Mark has come back down quickly (148 here) and took a heavy fall over these fences in November but hurdles form since the turn of the year points to his retaining a lot of ability. Trainer is no mug at targeting races.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Enjoy D'allen
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[TD]Finished last season as an improving novice with a smart third in the Irish National and showed further improvement in very valuable race at Leopardstown in December, getting his mark up enough to make the cut here. With further improvement entirely possible, a must for the short list.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Anibale Fly
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Went up to 167 for finishing second in the 2019 Gold Cup and followed it up with a good run under top weight here. Bore all the hallmarks of a job horse for the following season’s Covid-cancelled renewal. Started slowly last year and gave up early but the handicapper has relented a lot and he gets to run here off 148. Caught the eye over hurdles in February and could go very well at a big price.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Dingo Dollar
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Solid, consistent type but probably just lacks the class for a race of this nature. Likely to run his race and could sneak a place as others give up the ghost.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Freewheelin Dylan
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[TD]Won the Irish National at 150/1 but it was no fluke. Races prominently and can give backers a good run for their money but probably another who just lacks the class for this off this mark.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Class Conti
[/TD]
[TD]150/1
[/TD]
[TD]Appeared not to take to the race last year and hard to fancy overall but is handicapped to run well on his form leading up to that race. 150/1 might make it worthwhile forgiving that run and allowing him another chance. He’s 22lbs better off with Run Wild Fred for 1½ lengths in the Thyestes.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Noble Yeats
[/TD]
[TD]50/1
[/TD]
[TD]7yo and not obviously well handicapped but if he turns up next year off a similar mark he could be interesting.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Mighty Thunder
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]2021 Scottish National winner and they’ve done well to get him here just 3lbs higher. Short list material.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cloth Cap
[/TD]
[TD]25/1
[/TD]
[TD]All the rage for this last year when punted into 11/2 favourite. Was expected to stay but stopped quickly and a breathing issue was diagnosed and operated on. Largely disappointing this year but they’ve probably been after this prize all along and he’s a much bigger price off a pound lower.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Snow Leopardess
[/TD]
[TD]8/1
[/TD]
[TD]The big media story: grey, mare, a mum, three straight wins including impressively over these fences and a back story with connections that will be laid on thick to make grown women cry. But should she be favourite or thereabouts?
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Agusta Gold
[/TD]
[TD]80/1
[/TD]
[TD]Another mare. Returned to form last time and open to improvement but not obviously well handicapped.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Commodore
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Very impressive at Cheltenham in January on his only appearance this season went up a fair bit for it and very probably unexposed despite being a 10yo. Jumped well that day too – from the front – and might try to repeat that kind of performance. Could be another grey winner after Neptune Collonges a few years ago.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Deise Aba
[/TD]
[TD]80/1
[/TD]
[TD]Reliable old sod and owned by the estate of ‘Mr National’ Trevor Hemmings (Hedgehunter, Ballabriggs, Many Clouds) but nothing in his form to suggest any better than a minor place is likely.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Blaklion
[/TD]
[TD]66/1
[/TD]
[TD]Fourth go at the race. 8/1f in 2017 when fourth to One For Arthur. Got round in sixth last year and a similar run is likely. Now a teenager and they tend to struggle in anything other than very deep ground.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Poker Party
[/TD]
[TD]80/1
[/TD]
[TD]Connections took out the top weight to get this one in but form figures uninspiring. However, has a squeak on the pick of his 2019-20 form.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Death Duty
[/TD]
[TD]40/1
[/TD]
[TD]Connections also took one out to let this one in. Getting on but in with a chance on the pick of his form.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Domaine De L'Isle
[/TD]
[TD]100/1
[/TD]
[TD]Connections appeared to have gambled on this one squeezing in. Handicapped to run well but maybe just short of the class to win. Trainer won the 2008 Scottish National with a 66/1 shot. Good place prospects if he gets round.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Eclair Surf
[/TD]
[TD]14/1
[/TD]
[TD]Another to squeeze in but has a very big chance. Probably faced an impossible task last time trying to give subsequent impressive Scottish National winner Win My Wings 11lbs at Newcastle. 4lbs well in on that run and still improving. Looks like the stable jockey has picked it ahead of De Rasher Counter.
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fortescue
[/TD]
[TD]28/1
[/TD]
[TD]Last one to make the cut before the reserve stage. Boasts an improving profile and 4lbs well in after winning nicely in a valuable Ascot race from Fiddlerontheroof but that one is 5lbs better off because Fortescue’s jockey can’t claim. Still, FOTR is 16/1 and Fortescue is 40/1…
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
I think Lostintranslation still has a touch of class, and like the jockey booking of Harry Cobden

So will play each way [6 places] @ 80-1
 
Santini is one of my early bets. Along with Blaklion (because he’ll hopefully be ran to get placed and will pick horses up and the end), Snow Leopardess (although I accidentally backed her win only along with Death Duty) and School Boy Hours (know nothing about him but love the name: it’s proper old fashioned). I’ll end up backing half the field but it’s usually my early bets that do well eg Mon Mome at 33/1…that hurt). Absolutely no idea what is going to win. I’m going to burn the midnight oil tonight and try to focus on which horses I would have backed when I used to have to drive to the bookies.
 
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It's going to be:

Run Wild Fred

I'm following Stattler form here. All about opinions and mine is that Stattler is a Gold Cup horse. If that were to be so, then RWF looks a well handicapped horse.

Santini

His form is laced with class and if the stable switch has had any rejuvenating effect, he could be thrown in. Love the Scholfield booking.

Domaine De L'isle

Ran a lovely prep over the fences behind Snow Leopardess in December. Scanning his running style, he can get behind in his races and the danger is that he'll get detached here. However, this looks like the plan and the aforementioned gamble with the weights has paid off.


Good luck
 
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I put Domaine d'isle up for the scottish and as yorick said the gamble to get in paid off.
Also as yorick said he gets behind but there was nothing running on better in the becher.usually ridden by D.Bass and now Harry Bannister.
COMMODORE is an interesting one .I haven't a clue really but I will put up 4.

1st POKER PARTY 100/1
2ND ESCARIA TEN 16/1
3RD AUGUSTA GOLD 66/1
4TH DOMAINE D'ISLE 125/1
 
Éclair Surf for me.

Mighty Thunder, Freewheeling Dylan, De rasher counter a few lively outsiders.

I'd love to see Santini win it for Polly Grundy but more chance of platting **** unless the heavens open.

Any Second now probably the safest ew of the the race but just struggle to see him winning.

SURF'S UP!

Best of luck guys and gals.
 
I've tried not to overthink this too much ( not difficult really for me ) but think SL too short and it's the story that's dictating the price, MT can't win again off top weight/recent form/two years running for horse and rider - having said that will pee up probably, can't back anything Elliott just can't, Santini won't get round ( sorry but can't see it ), certain jockeys just can't, can't back number 7 as don't think will get round.....so have gone very small bets as really shouldn't , and all each way for :
Fiddlerontheroof - thing he might actually have a chance although drying ground won't help, I don't like the jockey but CT's last try, never won it etc ( could be talking myself out of this one actually )
Dingo Dollar ; Sandy Thomson had a really good season and Ryan Mania, former winner, retired, come back,
Deise Aba; Hobbs never won it, Johnson never won it now gone, so would be ironic, the Hemmings connection obviously.
See absolutely totally unscientific but can't go for the short price ones and not saying any of the last two have an actual chance of winning it but may get a run for my money most of the way, so just a bit of fun really.

Hope Hullnback wins the bumper though.
 
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