2022 Grand National

Danny said:
Éclair Surf for me.

Mighty Thunder, Freewheeling Dylan, De rasher counter a few lively outsiders.

I'd love to see Santini win it for Polly Grundy but more chance of platting **** unless the heavens open.

Any Second now probably the safest ew of the the race but just struggle to see him winning.

SURF'S UP!

Best of luck guys and gals.
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Yeah, I know what you mean about the going for Santini but I cling to his second to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup. Fast run race which, I'm hoping (and it is a hope), points to him acting on G/Sft.
 
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G-G said:
... but can't go for the short price ones and not saying any of the last two have an actual chance of winning it but may get a run for my money most of the way, so just a bit of fun really.
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I can't help thinking there's a few shorties in the race that are very poor prices.

Minella Times? Seriously?? I mean....... SERIOUSLY?????????????
Snow Leopardess? All story but how much substance?
Any Second Now? I backed it last year and it was definitely unlucky but it's handicapped as though it just about won the race. Not saying it definitely won't win, but I'd want 25/1.
Delta Work? I get the popularity but the third at Cheltenham was rated in the 130s. Hardly the kind of evidence on which to nail one's colours to a mast.

That's just shy of 40% taken out of the market. That opens up loads of value elsewhere. It's a brilliant race for punters if they can see past the hype.
 
Well, of his seven wins, there have been six on the soft and one on heavy.

About Santini, that is, jinnyj
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I can't help thinking there's a few shorties in the race that are very poor prices.

Minella Times? Seriously?? I mean....... SERIOUSLY?????????????
Snow Leopardess? All story but how much substance?
Any Second Now? I backed it last year and it was definitely unlucky but it's handicapped as though it just about won the race. Not saying it definitely won't win, but I'd want 25/1.
Delta Work? I get the popularity but the third at Cheltenham was rated in the 130s. Hardly the kind of evidence on which to nail one's colours to a mast.

That's just shy of 40% taken out of the market. That opens up loads of value elsewhere. It's a brilliant race for punters if they can see past the hype.
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Name any other horse in the race capable of winning over 2m other than Any Second Now.
 
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The thing is,its not so much the hcap mark as the actual weight.
MT ex 15lb
Any second now +13
Burrows saint +6
Discorama +5
 
Outsider said:
The thing is,its not so much the hcap mark as the actual weight.
MT ex 15lb
Any second now +13
Burrows saint +6
Discorama +5
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For me it's how its mark reflects its ability compared with everything/anything else in the race.

Last year he was a 163 horse getting in off 152. This time he's a 163 horse having to run off 159. Yes, he was very unlucky in running but those extra 7lbs will count for 14 lengths. That might just put him roughly where he finished last year but there will almost certainly be something another eight lengths in front of him (imvho!!)

Anibale Fly, for example, is(/was) a 167 horse getting in off 148. Santini was a 172 horse getting in off 153.

I do think anyone punting ASN at a short price is not getting a value bet. That's not to say he can't/won't win but my figures are telling me he has a very difficult task at the weights.
 
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My take would be that the JP camp don’t think Any Second Now or Minella Times can win or they wouldn’t have bought Enjoy d’Allen.

On the other hand they might just want 3 good chances rather then 2


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viking said:
My take would be that the JP camp don’t think Any Second Now or Minella Times can win or they wouldn’t have bought Enjoy d’Allen.
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That thought occurred to me at the time, then I thought EDA would be just a 7yo (so the purchase must have been near the turn of the year) and reckoned they were buying him for next year's race.
 
Fiddlerontheroof
Enjoy D'allen
Two For Gold
Run Wild Fred
Eclair Surf
Delta Work
Good Boy Bobby
 
Desert Orchid said:
I can't help thinking there are a few shorties in the race that are very poor prices.

Delta Work? I get the popularity but the third at Cheltenham was rated in the 130s. Hardly the kind of evidence on which to nail one's colours to a mast.
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Plan Of Attack's 138 is a lot nearer 140's than 130's DO....

His form around the cross country course at Cheltenham (3 RPR's of 143) is far superior to anything else in his book. The same can be said of the fourth horse Diesel D'Allier and they were beaten 22 and 30 lengths respectively.

Now for-a-man who spends most of his equine activity crunching numbers and evaluating form should if it suits him; be able to easily protract that running to in and around 160+.

Stamina, Stamina, Stamina....
 
Enjoy d’Allen
Longhouse Poet
Fiddlerontheroof
Kildisart
Any Second Now


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Any Second Now unlucky last year and that may have been his chance. That said, I am keeping the faith. He and the Poet for the forecast.
 
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Maxbet said:
Plan Of Attack's 138 is a lot nearer 140's than 130's DO....

His form around the cross country course at Cheltenham (3 RPR's of 143) is far superior to anything else in his book. The same can be said of the fourth horse Diesel D'Allier and they were beaten 22 and 30 lengths respectively.

Now for-a-man who spends most of his equine activity crunching numbers and evaluating form should if it suits him; be able to easily protract that running to in and around 160+.

Stamina, Stamina, Stamina....
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Yes, and I've rated the x-country via Plan Of Attack's top RPRs (143) but at that trip in that ground (soft on the day) I wouldn't allow 1lb per length, which RPRs appear to do. Allowing a generous 0.75lbs per length (the factor I use at 3m) only brings Delta Work out at around 160/161, compared with his OR of 160. To me, that just confirmed that the horse is in form.

But this is a handicap. To win, he'd need to be at least a 170 horse (he went up to 171 for winning the 2020 Irish Gold Cup), run his race and then hope nothing else proves better handicapped, hence my comment in the pinstickers' guide:

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[TD]Put dual winner Tiger Roll in his place at Cheltenham last month but this is a much different type of contest. Used to be rated 11lbs higher so entitled to be fancied but has a lot of weight to hump round against smart opponents.
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
Race is still doing my head in. Although if Mount Ida or Coko Beach wins I’m going to give up betting.
 
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