Novice Hurdlers 2009/2010

I think GMOOH comes out of that just about the best horse .He was hampered by Menorah after that jink from Dan Breen and Menorah then got first run which probably cost him the head he was beaten by .

O'Connell looked to be riding to a pre-race plan based on the expectation of a very fast pace and when he tried to move him closer the horse made mistakes . One does wonder why however they rode him so cautiously .

My gut feeling is however that had they gone very quick GMOOH would have had too many gears for him anyway .
 
Hamm said:
What's not clear cut about it?

There are no excuses for Dunguib, and it annoys me the prior hype means he is the talking point(more so in the media), and not the 2 very good horses ahead of him. There is no reason whatsoever to believe he can turn this form around.
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He was beaten under two lengths by two horses that were flat out despite travelling wide and jumping poorly. Clearly not the best horse today but I do not think he takes a huge jump to think with an improved round of jumping and a better trip he could get closer again then again maybe not - but its not as if he was beaten like Cousin Vinny last year. Just because the "hype" annoys you does not mean any talk about the horse then has to be dismissed.
 
Seriously, this is maddening - he is not as good as the other two - why can't people simply accept this? there is no excuse, nor a reason why the other two won't improve at least as much as Dunguib will. In fact, what with the inexperienced hurdlers in behind, it is more likely Dunguib will be caught up than catching - the improvement to come from him should be relatively limited this season after 5 starts.7

There seems to be some kind of crazed hands over eyes stuff going on here - he isn't the horse people thought.

Why is there a relatively few amount of posts on here about the fantastic 2 ahead of him? Not hard to guess.
 
You could of course be right - but jeez if people want to talk about the horse they can! I have given you the two reasons for why I think the horse could possibly prove better than that form - you don't accept them - thats fair enough.

Hamm said:
Seriously, this is maddening - he is not as good as the other two - why can't people simply accept this? there is no excuse, nor a reason why the other two won't improve at least as much as Dunguib will. In fact, what with the inexperienced hurdlers in behind, it is more likely Dunguib will be caught up than catching - the improvement to come from him should be relatively limited this season after 5 starts.7

There seems to be some kind of crazed hands over eyes stuff going on here - he isn't the horse people thought.

Why is there a relatively few amount of posts on here about the fantastic 2 ahead of him? Not hard to guess.
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If the 3 meet at Aintree how would they be priced up? My guess is Dunguib would still be marginally favourite. Maybe you'll be right and he'll lose again but it certainly isn't a done deal.
 
Melendez said:
If the 3 meet at Aintree how would they be priced up? My guess is Dunguib would still be marginally favourite. Maybe you'll be right and he'll lose again but it certainly isn't a done deal.
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It will be interesting to see if they take him on in Ireland at Punchestown.
 
People can of course talk about who they want, and I'm not saying anything relating to that, but it's nonsense for the postscript to a fine race to be about the third. I don't understand it.
 
Hamm said:
People can of course talk about who they want, and I'm not saying anything relating to that, but it's nonsense for the postscript to a fine race to be about the third. I don't understand it.
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So if the much much hyped pair of Punchestown and Long Run get beat into second and third tomorrow you would not understand why so much focus would be on them?

The horse was awesome in his bumpers and his lead up races and was talked of as a future superstar - I find it perfectly understandable why his performance has been put under the microscope. Human nature.
 
To compare Dunguib with the likes of Long Run and Punchestowns is way wide of the mark. These two horses are 160 + rated and have performed to a level way in excess of Dunguib. They have also raced in races over jumps where the pace is non-dawdling.

I refer you to DJs post earlier in this thread where he cuts right to the point of actual form achieved, and hence was able to ignore the hype and get a good value bet.

Dunguib, whilst looking good (very good), had achieved little. It's the same nearly every year with Irish hurdlers. Soft ground, slow pace, on the bridle win. Artificially short price for the Supreme on different ground, stronger pace, better rivals and everyone in shock when he loses. Forget Paul Jones book, this is the best stat you can have on your side for Cheltenham.
 
Thanks for your views on Dunguib....what about the others?:)

So if LR and Punchestown do get beat tomorrow we can talk about them more than the winner simply because of what they have done in the past? Dunguib was/is a horse that has caught alot of peoples imagination - what harm.

Your reference to Irish novice form is completely contrary to you talking up Rite Of Passage as a huge price at 7/2...soft ground, slow pace and bridle win.
 
No harm but people are blaming the jockey, the course he took, the way the sun shined etc. The fact is, despite the prices, there wasn't much between Dubguib and the first two on their best form.

I already made my points about the other on this thread after the race.
 
Galileo said:
Your reference to Irish novice form is completely contrary to you talking up Rite Of Passage as a huge price at 7/2...soft ground, slow pace and bridle win.
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ROP view based on style of hurdles victory but substance of Nov handicap win showing a massively improved horse. Plus, he's not odds on and is near (I think) top rated. Add this to the fact he is 5.2 and Dunguib 1.89 and you see why i think there is value in ROP.
 
It still runs contrary to the view you put up about Irish novice hurdle form - particularly when the piece of form on the flat came on pretty bottomless ground at Leopardstown - none of which bares any resemblance to fast ground, 2m5f with hurdles at Cheltenham.

I take your point about the prices, but Dunguib had absolutely thumped Rite Of Passage and Quel Esprit on the flat last year at the track, had sluiced up in two Grade 1 hurdle races with the promise of more to come. I can easily see why people got carried away with him and even in the context of the prices he had achieved much more than ROP coming into their respective races.
 
I have to be against the front two in the Neptune market tommorrow. The combination of lively ground ( action suggests he wants a cut), jumping concerns and ability to handle the track are more than enough to put me off Rite Of Passage. That's not even bringing his suspect form into the equation!

Quel Esprit is shocking value at this stage. I'm just not sure is he quick enough to win this in any case.

I'm sweet on Finian's Rainbow given the conditions - 6/1 is decent value in my book. The same case could be made for Reve De Sivola ~ I'm just not sure his jumping will hold up nor whether he will have the pace on this ground.

Gus Macrae has a lot to find but looks an interesting outsider.
 
I backed Menorah in January (at a shorter price than his SP) but I still believe that I was on the third best horse in the race. I saw it as a fortunate win, given the ride the favourite got and the interference experienced by GMOOH. If you could get 2/1 the three of them in Punchestown, I would be on the Jonjo yolk.

I don't think Binocular has much to worry about in that race.
 
trackside528 said:
I'm sweet on Finian's Rainbow given the conditions - 6/1 is decent value in my book. The same case could be made for Reve De Sivola ~ I'm just not sure his jumping will hold up nor whether he will have the pace on this ground.
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RDS coped fine with lively ground and a decent pace (over shorter of course) in the Triumph before the speedier sorts ran him out of it. He shouldn't be in double figures.
 
Bar the Bull said:
I backed Menorah in January (at a shorter price than his SP) but I still believe that I was on the third best horse in the race. I saw it as a fortunate win, given the ride the favourite got and the interference experienced by GMOOH. If you could get 2/1 the three of them in Punchestown, I would be on the Jonjo yolk.

I don't think Binocular has much to worry about in that race.
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On the day I think the best two horses filled the first two places but a combination of things led to the better horse finishing second - Johnson always had Menorah better positioned than AP, the jink cost the runner up valuable momentum at a crucial stage and the re-positioning of the final flight was the final nail in the coffin. Nice to hear a Menorah backer actually use the term lucky - unlike Steve Mellish who clearly wouldn't entertain the idea.
 
Racing Post Ratings showing the winner on just 146, amongst the lowest they've ever rated the race.
 
I don't know where to stand on this race - first two could be top class but they are pretty short for what they have actually done. I have Quel Esprit antepost since before Christmas but couldnt take the price today. Have backed Summit Meeting and Manyriverstocross to place.
 
Quel Esprit looked wonderful on C4 this morning.

The ground would be the worry for him, whereas Rite of Passage has no excuses on that front.

I have also had a little on Summit Meeting and Ghizao, who i think could go really well on this ground.
 
The ground is interesting for Rite Of Passage - he has yet to race on ground as fast as this since his debut. Yeah he is by Giant's Causeway but to believe his breeding he should be running in Classics not at Cheltenham - loads of heavy ground form.
 
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