QM Champion Chase betting

Frankel said:
Agree highly unlikely to win. However, as you say if SS and SDG run below par, if indeed they run. 33s to hit the frame ain't too shabby in my view. I know you can throw in DB and CF to name 2 that you would put ahead of him, but worse e/w punts maybe.
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Maybe Slim or one of the other odds gurus can put me right but I don't agree with the maths of this line of thinking. If the consensus, namely that HC can't realistically win, is correct then you're throwing away the win portion of the bet. So a tenner each-way at 33/1 will return £92.50, equivalent to just over 7/2 to your £20 stake. And maybe the best he can be is third? You'll probably get 8/1 place-only on the day.

Then again, Segal might have access to information that none of us mere mortals do.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Maybe Slim or one of the other odds gurus can put me right but I don't agree with the maths of this line of thinking. If the consensus, namely that HC can't realistically win, is correct then you're throwing away the win portion of the bet. So a tenner each-way at 33/1 will return £92.50, equivalent to just over 7/2 to your £20 stake. And maybe the best he can be is third? You'll probably get 8/1 place-only on the day.

Then again, Segal might have access to information that none of us mere mortals do.
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See what you are saying DO. My point was really around SS and SDG. Take them out then the win could be 'realistic'.
Place bet on the day is another option, but was just playing the game like Pricewise in this instance.
 
To be fair to Segal, the QMCC is a pretty inscrutable event right now, with SS only just back, SDG still to return, and only DB of the remainder looking to be in what you would describe as good form.

Ordinarily, Hidden Cyclone would be one I'd want to back at a big price, but having followed his career very closely, even I can't bring myself to think he can land a blow in a Champion Chase. He'll probably trot-up now. :(
 
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Hidden Cyclone is a decent animal who is capable of running well in just about any company if he turns up in his best form and bounces back to his very best.

TS has been putting up horses like him for years at big prices and every so often one stoats and by year end he shows a profit.

He's a bengal lancer of the worst kind and couldn't pick his own nose.

If Hidden Cyclone wins the QMCC I will sleep outside the next time we have snow
 
Tanlic said:
There's a surprise you supporting your namesake:D Denman doesn't even come into the calculations according to Timeform best rating was 183 with 3lbs between Kauto 191 and Dessie 187

But then they rated Long Run higher than Denman.....shows what they know.
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My bad. I shouldn't have mentioned Denman and Kauto in juxtaposition like that. Kauto Star's best was probably some way better than Denman's. And I might have had BHL just ahead of Denman too.

As for mentioning 'myself', I tend to forget my pseudonym on here. Whenever anyone mentions the horse it very seldom occurs to me that it's also my handle.
 
Tanlic said:
Hidden Cyclone is a decent animal who is capable of running well in just about any company if he turns up in his best form and bounces back to his very best.

TS has been putting up horses like him for years at big prices and every so often one stoats and by year end he shows a profit.

He's a bengal lancer of the worst kind and couldn't pick his own nose.

If Hidden Cyclone wins the QMCC I will sleep outside the next time we have snow
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That's a safe enough promise to be making when you live in Thailand
 
Gary Moore confirms SDG will run in the game spirit on Feb 7th but will need the run.Reading his comments they fancy their chances v Sprinter.
Another two-mile star, Sprinter Sacre, made his return from a long absence at Ascot over the weekend, finishing second to Dodging Bullets.
Assessing his performance, Moore said: "He didn't fill me with any dread, obviously there's issues going on with the horse but he looked extremely fit the other day and I don't think he blew up, he was probably race-rusty.
"You can't leave Dodging Bullets out of it (Champion Chase equation), he's taken nearly the same route as us last year and doing the same as we did. It's not just a two-horse race."
With his recuperation having gone well, Moore is set to school his stable star over fences for the first time since his setback.
He told Queen Mother sponsors Betway: "I'm going to sit down and talk things through with Jamie (Moore, jockey), but the plan is to school him for the first time since his accident either tomorrow morning or even Friday. We'll just have to see how he is and also, more importantly, watch what the weather does.
 
Seems to be a split opinion on the run of Sprinter Sacre and his chances in the big one.
I saw enough positives to make me think he'll win the QM, even if he's highly unlikely to hit the heights of the past.

Hopefully he'll smash em.
 
Tanlic said:
Hidden Cyclone is a decent animal who is capable of running well in just about any company if he turns up in his best form and bounces back to his very best.

TS has been putting up horses like him for years at big prices and every so often one stoats and by year end he shows a profit.

He's a bengal lancer of the worst kind and couldn't pick his own nose.

If Hidden Cyclone wins the QMCC I will sleep outside the next time we have snow
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The festival AP feature for Segal is always a tough but to crack for him as he is basically obliged to pick an outsider.I wouldn't imagine many punters latch onto his festival picks as the races are analysed by us all for months on end anyway.
But I certainly wouldn't be knocking his ability to pick big priced winners especially on run of the mill saturday's with difficult handicaps.

But yes I absolutely agree with you Hidden Cyclone won't win the CC in a month of sundays!
 
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Had a quick look at the HdB stable tour in last weeks Irish Field and he was hopeful that Geraghty would be available to ride Special Tiara- unlikely to happen but he gives the horse an each way chance.
 
links781 said:
Gary Moore confirms SDG will run in the game spirit on Feb 7th but will need the run.Reading his comments they fancy their chances v Sprinter.
Another two-mile star, Sprinter Sacre, made his return from a long absence at Ascot over the weekend, finishing second to Dodging Bullets.
Assessing his performance, Moore said: "He didn't fill me with any dread, obviously there's issues going on with the horse but he looked extremely fit the other day and I don't think he blew up, he was probably race-rusty.
"You can't leave Dodging Bullets out of it (Champion Chase equation), he's taken nearly the same route as us last year and doing the same as we did. It's not just a two-horse race."
With his recuperation having gone well, Moore is set to school his stable star over fences for the first time since his setback.
He told Queen Mother sponsors Betway: "I'm going to sit down and talk things through with Jamie (Moore, jockey), but the plan is to school him for the first time since his accident either tomorrow morning or even Friday. We'll just have to see how he is and also, more importantly, watch what the weather does.
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Who is he trying to kid? Talk about looking through rose coloured glasses.

I wonder what he would be saying if the shoe was on the other foot and he trained Sprinter Sacre.

Blew up, weakened, ring rusty what's the difference? If I were him I'd be shaking in my boots and praying Sprinter Sacre didn't turn up in March.

He brings Dodging Bullets into his calculations and suddenly it's no longer a 2 horse race......In his tiny little mind he's trying to bring SprinterSacre down to Dodging Bullets level and convince himself there's nothing to fear?

The highest rated Chaser since Arkle back on track and he is not filled with dread :lol: Guys an eejit someone should tell him Sprinter Sacre always looks fit he's not a friggin Denman type animal he's a lean mean fighting machine who metabolism keeps him looking fit even when he's not 100%.

Wake up and smell the roses Moore if your ass ain't tweaking now it will be on March 11th
 
I wouldn't expect him to say we can't beat Sprinter so we may as well not bother would you?

Apologies if I've misunderstood your post
 
Above post would make me happier still to see SDG win again. A trainer who has developed a top stable with workaday owners is not someone i would rush to describe as having a "tiny mind". Maybe a silver spoon in mouth with horses that disappear for months on end and not having a clue which needle is being stuck in which horse for what purpose would fit the bill
 
The old saying..they never come back the same ...has held true over the years..very few top horses come back just the same as they did before an injury.

Anyone that thinks SS is definitely going to capture that superb best is guessing a lot really. I really hope he does as we have two opponents that would make a great spectacle. The reality in this though is that the % call is that whilst these two horses are coming back we have a horse mopping the races up really quite impressively in Dodging Bullets..its reminding me of last year when many people underestimated SDG whilst he did the same as DB is now doing.

I think Dodging Bullets is improving too..and will win the Champion Chase
 
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This is what Lydia Hislop has to say in a very good article on the Sporting Life site. I wouldn't disagree with any of it and find the remarks about Sprinter's physical condition at Ascot intriguing.

Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sprinter Sacre ultimately fluttered no hearts on his return at Ascot. This was good news in the case of his own, trainer Nicky Henderson reporting the all clear on that score, via his specialist vet Professor Celia Marr, shortly after his horse’s three-length defeat in the Sodexo Clarence House Chase.


For most horses, what he achieved in finishing second to Dodging Bullets would have been, if not a triumph, certainly an overwhelming positive. But Sprinter Sacre is not most horses. At his best, he was rated an extraordinary 188 over fences; on Saturday, he was the best part of 20lbs below that. He jumped well, letting fly some good leaps that were vaguely reminiscent of his pomp, and it is worth remembering that jockey Barry Geraghty later said that he felt like the winner for much of the race. But what confidence he had quickly dissipated on the turn for home when the winner moved up so readily on his outside; from then on, this great talent was merely held together on the run for home. Although Geraghty is known for his guru-like positivity, his analysis precisely matches the pictures.


“He felt great. He jumped brilliantly, travelled well; he just got tired,” he said. “You’d loved to have won, obviously, but he did everything bar win, really. He should improve a good bit for the race, so I’m delighted with how he was and everything about him…

“He got tired very quickly. I knew as soon as we started to turn in that I was treading water and a good jump at the second last kept him competitive, but I was well beaten going to the last.”


I don’t agree with the interpretation I’ve read that Sprinter Sacre found little off the bridle; I thought he kept on rather well, once switched, for a horse that was clearly being nursed home. However, I also don’t buy into the idea that he’ll return to his brilliant best in just under seven weeks’ time. Henderson would not have had a horse as precious as this, who had suffered a problem as serious as this, that far off full fitness for his return. However, two paddock observers separately commented he lacked the condition on his neck that once marked him out as such an extraordinary physical specimen. Can this or his brilliance realistically be recovered so quickly?


Then there was the disconcerting news, delivered by Henderson as darkness fell at Ascot, that “there was some blood in his nose afterwards”.
“Obviously you’d prefer not to see that but he’s been scoped and… I don’t think it was significant as far as his performance was concerned today. It’s relevant but at this point, I hope, not seriously significant,” he said. “You go through that extra bit of pressure in a race that you can’t do anywhere else… If you see it in their nostrils, you expect to find more [blood] than was evident [in this scope]… so the vets are filling me with confidence that it was nothing significant. But we’ll take note, of course we will, and keep everyone posted.”The next day, Henderson reported a “perky” Sprinter Sacre to have eaten up and did not make much of the “small bleed” other than to say the horse will be “treated accordingly”. We must interpret his reaction as proportionate to the concern but, as Henderson himself acknowledged, it is not a positive.

Yet the performance of Dodging Bullets must not be lost amongst this. This is a horse who had delivered a career-best performance to win the Tingle Creek on his previous start and bettered that effort here. As Noel Fehily, his rider on this occasion, said: “I think that was probably the best two-mile chase we’ve seen this year [meaning season] and that’s probably the best performance we’ve seen.”

Paul Nicholls, the winning trainer, stated after Sandown that Dodging Bullets had come of age, helped by greater physical maturity to withstand a tougher training regime, and the application of a tongue-tie. His old frailties – a sense that he was in some way ‘soft’ and could not sustain his early-season form in the more important back-end contests – are probably best viewed in the past tense. This horse boasts the leading current form in this division and probably deserves to be favourite. And yet he is third best in the betting. If you fancy taking the 5/1 each way, I couldn’t argue with you.


Sprinter Sacre must also be considered in his current state rather than for his past greatness. That isn’t to say he won’t ever return to that brilliant best, but there is more than enough doubt that in my mind that he won’t be able to in time for March. So 11/4 looks decidedly short. He has a good chance of winning the Champion Chase, but no more than Dodging Bullets.
Fehily probably put it best when asked what he’d make of Sprinter Sacre’s run were he Geraghty. “You’d have to respect him going to Cheltenham again… Whether he’s the Sprinter Sacre of old, I’m not quite sure…” he said.“Dodging Bullets is a very good horse now and I think he’s improved from last year… Sprinter Sacre? Maybe he isn’t the horse he was, but you’d have thought, taking on fit horses today, it’s still a very good run.”


When pressed, Geraghty’s words also betrayed this feeling and students of body language will have noted how he broke eye contact when asked how Sprinter Sacre’s current form compared with his peak.“He gave a good feel,” he said. “His jumping will get slicker, he’ll be better for match practice, fitness, everything, so I’d be hopeful we’d narrow the gap come March.” The key words there are surely “narrow the gap”; the Sprinter Sacre of old would eat that horse for breakfast and go back for the jockey.


Of the also-rans, aggressive front-running tactics, even over a course and distance he likes, were of no use to Somersby, who put in an ignorant round of jumping for no good reason. He’ll probably run well in the Champion Chase anyway, just because he can.

Trainer Willie Mullins wanted to find out whether Twinlight is good enough and he found out: no, he isn’t. However, as his rider Ruby Walsh reasoned on the morning of the race, defeat for Sprinter Sacre must make it more likely that Champagne Fever runs here rather than in the Ryanair.Walsh feels that horse was already beaten by Don Cossack when falling at the final fence in last Thursday’s Grade Two Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles but also that Champagne Fever never travelled or jumped as well as he had in the King George.His conclusion is that the horse is only at his best when fresh and his Festival form means you can’t discount him as a Champion Chase player.

Another contender, Sire De Grugy, is yet to play his cards this season due to what is being increasingly characterised as a minor setback treated cautiously by Gary Moore.
The trainer was at Ascot to witness Dodging Bullets deliver a performance in the same ballpark as those his stable star produced all last season and he looked the opposite of downcast afterwards.

Since then, however, the major mover in the ante-post market for this race has been Hidden Cyclone after Pricewise of the Racing Post tipped last year’s Ryanair runner-up in his ante-post column.
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The question I would ask is do you think he can/will improve for the run which he would be fully entitled, though not guaranteed. Without running to within 10 lbs of his best, a 7 or 8 lbs improvement on that run would probably be enough to win.

DB is interesting because he did need shaking up before SS. On better ground he may just find himself outpaced.

SDG to return aswell. A nice return will set it up very nicely for the big day.
 
Sacre could come back a stone worse, and still win the Champion Chase.

I'm more concerned about the fact that he bled post-race, than the fact that he got turned-over by DB in the Clarence House. All other things being equal, Sacre should comfortably reverse that form at Cheltenham.
 
its all about % really

it reminds me of football teams that have games in hand whilst being 4 points behind...in this case SS has games in hand..his past form..whereas DB has the points in the book..his wins in the current season

most footy fans..prefer the points on the table
 
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"Since then, however, the major mover in the ante-post market for this race has been Hidden Cyclone after Pricewise of the Racing Post tipped last year’s Ryanair runner-up in his ante-post column. " - Lydia Hislop

He's still available at 33's isn't he? In any case, the 500 e/w I put on him in the anti-post competition (November) at 20's looks slightly better placed! :)
 
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