QM Champion Chase betting

what rating did Badsworth Boy get from Timeform i wonder...in fact it would interesting to see the last 30 years of CC ratings..just the rating for the day they won it..can anyone do this?..have the necessary TF books?
 
I don't think the ease of SS's wins should be taken into account too readily. SS looks to be winning his races easily, which adds to the wonder of the spectacle, but his medical problems show that his performances have been taking something out of him.
 
EC1 said:
what rating did Badsworth Boy get from Timeform i wonder...in fact it would interesting to see the last 30 years of CC ratings..just the rating for the day they won it..can anyone do this?..have the necessary TF books?
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BB got 179 for the season in 1983 (177 in '84) but he beat Artifice (165) a distance in the QM so it's a personal view that 179 is undervaluing him. That's the problem with the wide margin winners because the 'how much in hand' factor comes into play. Even 'the bible' becomes subjective at this stage because it isn't the same person doing the ratings each year. I don't have any books after 1992 but, for reference, the QM winner, Remittance Man was given 173 for the season.
For what it's worth, after the 83 win TF called BB the best 2 miler since Dunkirk and after the 84 win he was deemed the best winner of the QM in its then 25 year history.
 
on paper BB's win is outrageous isn't it?

Artifice was a decent marker and it wasn't like he had been eased he was still passing the others late on.

If he was a 180+ or even 190 horse though you would think he would have shown it on other occasions though.

We have the Hawk Wing problem of guessing what level the oppo ran to on that particular day..very difficult

either way..not many horses would have passed BB on that day on what we can tell from the bare form
 
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Atrial fibrillation can happen any animal at any time.
I read that Fort Leney suffered from this when running in Scottish National mid 1960s but came back to win Gold Cup in 68.
What he did the missing years I do not know.
BB a real favourite of mine as like Moscow he won when he stood up; as Ruby said about Un De Sceaux on RUK mid term report.
Third in Triumph hurdle he went chasing at 5 but reverted to hurdles at 6 to win a few handicaps carrying 12-6 and 12-7 before returning to fences.
Bred to be a fast two year old by Max Morrin if memory serves and not again dreaming !
Horses back from injury do not have a great QMCC record though.
Call Equiname and The Tim Forster winner had delicate constitutions and Sizing Europe had his muscle issue in Champion Hurdle but otherwise Champion Chase winners had a trouble free run though correct me please if other winners had issues.
Odds therefore are against either SS or SDG repeating for now at least.
Ruby not altogether over impressed with SS return and Twinlight ran on late at Ascot to be beaten not too far on ground Ruby said was not that bad.
A 170 performance could well win QMCC this year for sure.
Thoughts ?
 
Before his 3rd win in 85, BB only made his seasonal reappearance in the February with a win in a minor event at Kelso before failing by half a length to give 21lb over 20 furlongs to the very decent Classified later in the month. That should give SDG backers a little comfort at least although TF rates BB a fortunate winner that year as the favourite, Bobsline, was going well when falling 3 out.
We've been mixing ORs and TF ratings but in terms of what will be required to win this year, Dodging Bullets was OR rated 171 for his Ascot win up from 165 which presumably puts SS on about 166. SDG was 171 last season. Seems to me that it's not unreasonable to think that DB can improve a little more, SS depends on whether you're a believer in the Old Testament or the New and SDG is just a question mark until after his return. If March's winner has only run to 170 I think it's safe to say that it will be DB. I tend to think that at least one of SDG and SS will be capable of more than that and 173+ will be needed but I still see it as a bet on the day (having seen them in the parade ring) race.
 
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Good discussion and glad to see nobody is rubbishing anyone else pointlessly.

Watching the race again, it isn't as if Badsworth Boy took them out of their comfort zone early, as Hawk Wing did, He tucked in until approaching the top of the hill on the far side when he took lengths out of the field with a brilliantly fluent jump. From that point on he just seemed in a different gear. He was less than 30 lengths in front at the last so must have still been putting distance between himself and the others up the hill.

Until seeing that replay, I hadn't realised what a show it was he put on that day. I think it has to be rated upsides Sprinter Sacre's best. Artifice and News King were decent tools, not to mention the then reigning champ Rathgorman.

Interesting too, though, that the pundits' immediate reaction was that the other had all underperformed.
 
Just watched it yet again. I now wonder if News King and Rathgorman took themselves out of their comfort zone by trying to go with BB from the top of the hill while Artifice, who couldn't go the pace, stayed on past them once they started weakening. It looks like Artifice has run his race so BB has given him an almighty doing without being asked a question.

He's another angle. That race was over 30 years ago but not much more than 15 years after Arkle.

If 179 seriously under-rates Badsworth Boy, by what margin does 212 under-rate Arkle :) :whistle:
 
As a son of Dubawi Dodging Bullets may do for sons of Dubawi as prospective NH sires what Istabraq and Theatre World did for Saddlers Wells, Hurricane Fly did for sons of Montjeu. John Ferguson would be the first to benefit.
Bangalore Diamond of Bridle's finished less than 5 lengths off DB at Limerick june 2011.
Has he missed a trick ?
Or is he happier going to Dundalk ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Good discussion and glad to see nobody is rubbishing anyone else pointlessly.

Watching the race again, it isn't as if Badsworth Boy took them out of their comfort zone early, as Hawk Wing did, He tucked in until approaching the top of the hill on the far side when he took lengths out of the field with a brilliantly fluent jump. From that point on he just seemed in a different gear. He was less than 30 lengths in front at the last so must have still been putting distance between himself and the others up the hill.

Until seeing that replay, I hadn't realised what a show it was he put on that day. I think it has to be rated upsides Sprinter Sacre's best. Artifice and News King were decent tools, not to mention the then reigning champ Rathgorman.

Interesting too, though, that the pundits' immediate reaction was that the other had all underperformed.
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I think the race was pushed into the background by the 'Famous Five' the next day. It's an absolutely valid point that rating a 'distance' win is very difficult because no-one knows how much is in reserve and only a mug would win by more than necessary. At least, around that time the top horses did turn out in handicaps so it helped to get a better hook for the rating.
One further thing to mention about the 83 race is that BB make a dreadful error at the second last (known in my household as the Latalomne Fence) but still cantered away from useful tools. Now that the fence has been placed in a friendlier position, you have to think that the performance might be worth even more. Interesting to watch the 84 race as well because they held him up until that 2nd last. Just watch him scoot clear after that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4c6EVxOz_E
 
archie said:
BB got 179 for the season in 1983 (177 in '84) but he beat Artifice (165) a distance in the QM so it's a personal view that 179 is undervaluing him. That's the problem with the wide margin winners because the 'how much in hand' factor comes into play. Even 'the bible' becomes subjective at this stage because it isn't the same person doing the ratings each year. I don't have any books after 1992 but, for reference, the QM winner, Remittance Man was given 173 for the season.
For what it's worth, after the 83 win TF called BB the best 2 miler since Dunkirk and after the 84 win he was deemed the best winner of the QM in its then 25 year history.
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We see that name "Dunkirk" pop up a lot when we talk about great 2 milers but to most members on here it probably means very little. There really is not that much been written about the horse other than he died when racing against Arkle.

He was the highest rated 2 miler until Sprinter Sacre came along but how good he actually was in comparison to today's 2 milers is extremely hard to judge.

I read he was beaten by Buona Notte as a novice at Sandown a race I don't remember. Buona Notte was one of the few horses ever to beat Arkle

Dunkirk won the 2 mile Champion Chase the following year making all by 20 lengths but I am not so sure that's where he got his highest rating from. It may well have come in the following season when he beat none other than Mill House by 15 lengths which I imagine had the handicapper scratching his head as Mill House would still have have been rated in the 180's at the time. As it was over 2 miles it would have been a bit like Denman taking on Moscow Flyer round 2 miles round Kempton I suppose

Dunkirk went on to win the Mackeson Gold Cup carrying 12st7lbs beating Choreographer by 1/2 length.The race at that time was over 2 miles

It was a very hard race to forget for anyone who seen it. He was ridden by Bill Rees a top NH jockey of the time. He led for most of the way until the weight took it's toll and it looked like all money he was beaten going to the last. Bill Rees was an exceptional jockey and a great thinker. To everyone's surprise he took a pull going to the last and eased of the gas deliberately allowing Choreographer getting over 2 stone to pass him and gave Dunkirk a breather then halfway up the run in asked Dunkirk the question and retook the lead and won.

Weight carrying performances were the flavour of the day back then and there lies the problem.

Dunkirk was brilliant to watch...a tearaway front runner who had won a QMCC by 20 lengths and followed it up the next season by slamming Mill House by 15 lengths then carried a bigweight in what we would call a Grade 1 chase today.

Mill House would be still in his prime as far as the handicapper was concerned as it was 1965 when Dunkirk beat him but it may not have been as good a performance as it looked.

Mill House beaten only 5 lengths by Arkle but in 1965 the same year Dunkirk slammed him Arkle beat him 30 lengths ? had he really improved that much? Highly unlikely, Mill House missed out the following season due to back trouble something that bugged him for most of his career and its much more likely Mill House had deteriorated due to his problems.

Arkle was without doubt a brilliant horse but the 5 lengths he beat Mill House (A very fit Mill House) in 1964 may have been as good as he ever was. The realist know Mill House was never the same horse again but we like to pretend differently as we can't be seen to be talking down hero's like Arkle or Dunkirk.

Sure they we brilliant but these weight carrying feats were nowhere near as great as they are cracked up to be. Peter O'Sullivan re Arkle......."You'll never see anything like him again"

Then before you know it along comes Flyingbolt a brilliant young chaser who does exactly the same as Arkle......Gives weight to height of Fashion Scottish Memories etc.......Then suddenly we have another 200 plus chaser. These horse he beat giving weight were typical bred to stay 10 mile chasers of the time. When Arkle took on better horses in the shape of Flying Wild Buona Notte What A Myth and Stalbridge Colonist he lost and if he had kept taking them on giving them similar amounts he would probably have kept losing.

Arkle was an exceptional horse and it's a pity there hadn't been a few Mill Houses he could have taken on in his Gold Cups. As it turned out off levels he beat a possibly hurting Mill House in 65 and horses that were more suited to pulling carts in 66. That any gold cup winner would have probably beat 20 lengths or so

His weight carrying performances in Ireland were excellent but his defeat of Rondetto in the Gallagher Gold Cup is hailed as his best ever performance...Considering Mill House finished 3rd and was way past his very best and Rondetto was only there to pick up some easy place money Gawd knows how good a performance it really was......Arkle looked brilliant that day granted but the opposition not so hot. Would Kauto Star have done something similar? I would have to say most certainly taking everything into account

The point is Dunkirk was rated in an era where the horses were there to pull him up to a 186 rating.beating Mill House alone would go along way to doing that.

If Sprinter Sacre was at his very best and along came UDS and beat him 20 lengths and everything else not sighted UDS would probably end up higher rated than Arkle himself and old timers would be saying what a load of shyte.

I would hate the handicappers job if it were to compare era to era......One did try and work out Arkle's true rating against todays chaser but it was such a mess way back then he gave up.

I like most agree Arkle was the best we've seen and he'd have beaten Kauto Star hands down in a Gold Cup because he could after a strong gallop come up the Cheltenham Hill like a greyhound as if it wasn't there....Round Kempton against Dessie and Kauto IMO he'd have to have been better than even Pat Tafee thought he was to beat them 10 lengths and the grass would be covered in scorch marks at the speed he would have to have reached.

So Dunkirk.was he really the best 2 miler we had seen until 2 years ago....great to watch but I sincerely doubt it. I would suggest we've seen a few better
 
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another ignoarant piece of mother furking shyte comes on the scene.........must be the clique DO was talking about

You want to turn an excellent thread into tit for tat childish squabbles.... I'll be you huckleberry
 
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I actually enjoyed reading the post and the thread in general. I can't be having people constantly harking on about how the horses were better in the good ol' days but it was interesting to gain some insight into the great 2 milers of the past - without it being posted as a 'Dunkirk would have carried Remittance Man' type.

Quite what bearing it has on this year's Queen Mum betting though, I'm not sure :)

I did re-watch the Clarence House on the way to work today though and am now firmly in the camp that Dodging Bullets will never beat Sprinter Sacre again. Sprinter was travelling so much better than the Nichols horse turning in and Geraghty being the class jock he is never seriously got after him when he was headed. He simply rode him out hands and heels with a show of the whip.

It's not so much that he accepted defeat but more like he already knew before the race that is was simply another racecourse gallop but this time with prize money.
 
I'm not having a go here Tanlic..because i enjoyed your post re the Dunkirk/Arkle.

but not long ago i was criticised for getting annoyed with people after i spent a lot of time putting stuff up..told i was too precious...but look at how you have responded to the above dismissive posts against your input

like i say..I'm not criticising your response....but you have proven my point that it is quite annoying when you spend time putting stuff up and someone..usually those that have little to offer the forum ...post up a one line belittle..not saying that the two respondees above are in that category..then again..maybe Clive:lol:

its not just me that gets p1ssed off with such responses you see:)..worth bearing in mind eh?

anyway..back to black & white land for a minute....you keep saying Mill House was past his best in many runs against Arkle...but didn't Mill House win the 1967 Whitbread under top weight??

his decline years were more 68/69 when they kept running him in races they shouldn't have

I think its a bit convenient to just wipe out the times Arkle absolutely slammed him at levels and giving him weight...as MH not being the same horse..how good do you have be to win a Whitbread off top weight?..i would imagine any horse doing that would find it unlikely any pundit would think it the sign of a declining horse
 
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Mill House had a back problems I believe that started to cause him problems after he'd won the Gold Cup.
 
yes i know about that Moehat..but it seems that as soon as Arkle was not there he managed to conjure up a top notch performance in the Whitbread

i'm sure he did have back problems..but you know if Arkle had run in that 67 whitbread and beat him carrying 15 stone or whatever:D..then instead of Mill House putting in a great winning performance..it would have been said..oh yes he came second again to Arkle..but he's got back problems.

i don't buy he was over the hill in 66..not with winning the 67 whitbread..i think that Arkle beat him so easily that people couldn't accept it at face value..had to find a reason for it

a bit like if KS had beat Denman 20 lengths in a GC with others beaten 15 length....there would have had to have been a problem that caused it..this is the trouble when you do actually see something staggering..people will always come up with why the second horse didn't show best.
 
Only mentioned as an aside before but I do think that moving the 2nd last fence has changed the face of chases on the Old Course. Before, you couldn't do much more than free-wheel down the hill but now, once you're over the 3rd last you can kick on and get a real whip round the bend. I mentioned poor old Latalomne before, who looked likely to at least place (at 14/1 and 25/1 :() the twice he fell there but there's plenty of others who came a cropper there because the jockey felt the need to get moving.
 
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