Road to the Gold Cup 2012

No Hennessy entry for Captain Chris, but Wishfull Thinking is in there. Does this suggest connections think the latter is the more logical Gold Cup horse?

I note that Wishfull Thinking gets into the Hennessy off 150.

:blink:

I have a vague notion that this may under-estimate him a touch.

PS. I will wreak a terrible revenge on anyone who tries to take a price before me. :cool:

Edit:

Ball-bags. Wishfull Thinking is on 164, and my nemesis - Wayward bastarding Prince - is on 150. I feel foolish and roundly fooked-off in equal measure.
 
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SteveM said:
Jumps well and was giving plenty of weight to the winner in the Topham. Clearly precocious, but we have to go back to 1950 to find a 5yo winner of the KG and the stable has said that talk about him as a Grade 1 horse is premature. 25/1 would probably be right on the day, but not ante-post. I doubt he’ll line up, to shoot him straight from handicap company into the KG doesn’t look right for such a young horse.
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Technically that's true, but Long Run would have been a 5yo winner of the King George last season if it hadn't been postponed a couple of weeks. That said, he was more experienced for his age.

I think Mon Parrain's a better jumper than Long Run but LR has some engine.
 
LONG RUN UNBEATABLE.


From Sporting Life site:

Timeform expect Long Run to go through the current season unbeaten.

Nicky Henderson's Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup hero returns to action in the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 19th and is already even-money with the sponsors for that contest.

He has at least a stone in hand of his rivals on the Halifax-based firm's ratings and Timeform's Dan Barber said: "Long Run has the Betfair Chase at his mercy on our figures. Anyone looking for a chink in his armour may point to his defeat at Cheltenham first time up last season, but anything close to a repetition of his subsequent King George or Cheltenham Gold Cup performances will almost certainly be good enough.

"In fact, it's hard to see him getting beaten all season."

With the race not until November 19, and several possible contenders holding alternative engagements in the coming weeks, betting for the Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock next month is predictably light.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin added: "Even money about Long Run would clearly look massive on the day, no matter what lined up against him. He obviously already has a top class and progressive profile and is rated at least 14lb superior to his likely rivals, headed by Kauto Star, according to Timeform.

"But the price simply underlines that long range, ante-post betting is effectively a double - the horse lining up at the start on the day, as well as winning."

Timeform ratings: 182 Long Run, 168 Kauto Star, Somersby, 166 What A Friend, 165p Diamond Harry 165 Albertas Run

To win the Betfair Chase - the sponsors bet: Evs Long Run, 9-2 Kauto Star, 10-1 Diamond Harry, 12-1 Captain Chris, Wishfull Thinking, 14-1 Time For Rupert, 16-1 Albertas Run, Somersby, 20-1 Kempes, Burton Port, What A Friend, 21-1 Master Minded, 24-1 Bostons Angel, 27-1 Denman, 29-1 Riverside Theatre, Jessies Dream, 33-1 Pandorama
 
Completely mental. He should be 33s at this stage.

As for Long Run, he made his share of mistakes at back in March and if he runs a similar race he won't get away with them again.
 
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What's Long Run likely to run in this season? The Betfair Chase, King George and Gold Cup?

I think he'll win the first two but I'm a bit leery of the Gold Cup. He won comfortably last year but as admirably as Denman and Kauto ran, they weren't the horses they used to be.

Edit: There's talk of the AON at Newbury though it's hardly set in stone. Henderson also mentions Aintree after the GC.

I'd like to see Long Run run as much as possible for sure.
 
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Connections appear to be particularly impressed with Long Run's physical development since last season. The yard will concentrate on his technique to get “French jumping habits out of him”.
 
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SteveM said:
Connections appear to be particularly impressed with Long Run's physical development since last season. The yard will concentrate on his technique to get “French jumping habits out of him”.
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I was interested to see that they use Yogi Beisner who was Chef D'Equipe for the UK Eventing team at the past two olympics. He's a wonderful trainer but I had no idea that he worked with TBs.
 
Yogi Breisner has been connected to Henderson's yard for at least 15 years, and probably longer, Miesque.

Is it just me, or is anyone else marginally sceptical about reports of increased maturity, strengthening-up or anything which suggests more improvement is a certainty? This applies just as much to other horses as it does Long Run. Doesn't nearly every trainer say similar about nearly every horse in their yard at this time of year?

I have to exercise some caution.

Long Run is already rated too highly in my view, and I don't buy into the theory that he will go on again - from a ratings perspective - from his success last year. He is clearly the staying chaser to beat, but cuffing Riverside Theatre at Kempton, and beating two 11yo's in the Gold Cup, means I have to reserve judgement for a bit yet.
 
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I don't disagree with some of your posts, though he beat those you mentioned and everything else. He, like any other horse, is no certainty for anything and at this stage we have no idea how good some of the second season chasers may be.

As regards the strengthening up cliche trainers use, I agree it's overused to desensitise most of us to it, but Nicholls stable tour had several negative comments which gave more credebility to his more positive remarks - I posted the links on the previous page.
 
I could be completely wrong about Long Run, Hamm - I just have an itch I can't scratch about him.

I confess I'm a bit of a heretic when it comes to Nicholls statements to the press. I think there's a difference between 'available' and 'open', and I think a lot of people are a bit too prepared to buy into reports issued by PFN without question - positive or negative.

I don't deny that he's good with the press, but I think he's capable of just as much hogwash as the next trainer. I place very little stock in trainer comments generally; much prefering the "it's not that hard" honesty of the likes of Hobbs and Twiston-Davies, to the detailed - yet largely superficial, imo - missives that emanate from Manor Farm Stables.

Maybe I'm too blue-collar (or, more likely, too much a pain in the arse) to accept it at face value.
 
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He's a horse with a fantastic engine but he is vulnerable because of his penchant for the odd mistake. His odds for the King George and Gold Cup are mental at the moment and he won't win both again imo.
 
Grasshopper said:
I could be completely wrong about Long Run, Hamm - I just have an itch I can't scratch about him.

I confess I'm a bit of a heretic when it comes to Nicholls statements to the press. I think there's a difference between 'available' and 'open', and I think a lot of people are a bit too prepared to buy into reports issued by PFN without question - positive or negative.

I don't deny that he's good with the press, but I think he's capable of just as much hogwash as the next trainer. I place very little stock in trainer comments generally; much prefering the "it's not that hard" honesty of the likes of Hobbs and Twiston-Davies, to the detailed - yet largely superficial, imo - missives that emanate from Manor Farm Stables.

Maybe I'm too blue-collar (or, more likely, too much a pain in the arse) to accept it at face value.
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Sorry, I may have come across wrong - my point with referencing Nicholls is not that I accept everything he says, but that he will make negative comments as well as positive ones. With Nicholls, the rule of thumb for me is to go with the opposite of what he says, especially in terms of how he fancies his horse's chances.

The reason I was looking for Nicholls' stable tour is to understand his plans for a few horses, Mon Parrain specifically.
 
Henderson today, "He has still got to get into our style of jumping fences - it tends to be in the French style at times", and "We're trying to knock the old French style out of him, there were some guessy moments last season".

I've often tryed to accentuate the view that a lot of horses come from France and are caught unaware by our fences at times, especially those that end up in the top stables. Nice to be vindicated by Nicky.:)
 
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Paul Nolan on Noble Prince

"Davy said that was hard to assess there against lesser opposition. On soft ground we wouldn't step him up in trip.
"He is in the Paddy Power at Cheltenham off eleven stone two and we'll have a look at that and see what happens.
"We'll also look at all those two mile races for him.
"It's nice to get him off the mark and hopefully he'll be 100 per cent afterwards. He had a nice school around there.
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