The 2024 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
3rd?

I reckon that's the longshot bets all covered.
Click to expand...
His price went out to 40/1! I only looked at the race last minute so there’s a lot to look at and I only realised late on that it was ran at Newcastle last year. Lord Melbourne was my third rated horse and fitted in with my place names system (I live near to Melbourne Hall but also had to back Beamish my favourite museum). Waxing Gibbons ( unbacked) ticked most boxes but wasn’t much of a price so I’m glad he didn’t win. Good days racing and Al Dancer ( unbacked) made me remember why I still love racing. We went to Badger Ales day a few years ago when we were sans dog for a while. Can only go to dog friendly courses these days.
 
Always makes me think of Barizan who I’d backed at a really good price for the Triumph, only to see him narrowly beaten by Soldatino after leading for most of the way round. It still hurts.
 
Outsider said:
Everyone thought the same I think.
I was willing it to stay on.
Brilliant race to watch.
Click to expand...

It really was.

Every now and again you get a race in which it's obvious several are trying for their lives and that was the impression I had yesterday with Remastered going with the leader and the rest not far behind off a genuinely strong pace.

I backed Mofasa on a kind of process-of-elimination basis, unable to muster too much enthusiasm for anything else, but got the impression early on that the plan is anther day. The Skelton horse was the one I latched on to during the race. I got the impression Harry felt the leaders were going too fast and that he was pacing his horse effectively, especially when he started taking closer order at what seemed the right time but he was then on the receiving end of some bad luck in running. I don't think he'd have caught the leader but I thought he was getting the best tactical ride.

It turned out that was the winner and great credit is due to the young jockey. If it was a plan it was sensationally well executed; if it was a gamble it paid off in style; if it was sheer lucky judgment of pace then it paid out like three sevens on a puggy.

In any event, it made watching the racing yesterday a brilliant experience.
 
This Time Maybe 7.00 Chelms 50-1

A weak race. TTM went from Hannon (where one of his 4 races was a Windsor C2 novice second) to Mark Usher in Oct 23.

No show in 5 races since (after a 300 day break between the stables), but last time was a little better.

Hannon obviously thought he wouldn't be able to win races in the appropriate class, but this is a 0-55 where TTM (if he does have anything, and with Time Test as a dad you'd think there's every chance he does) could come good at last.

Mark Usher seems to think a place is well within reach and TTM will be off to get it, though he does think the same of his other (much better-priced) runner Heeratthetrack.
 
I wasn't going to bother with this race, but I've taken 40s ew on Straw Fan Jack, in the Paddy Power. Has some good couse form. 3rd at the festival last season ( Il Rodoto) behind. Won here 2 seasons ago, beating the 158 rated Ash Tree Meadow.
On a going day, could go well here.
 
11 months into this thread and I'm still trying to put up a winner!

I'm taking a chance on Significantly in the 3.48 at Newcastle tomorrow. He's a proper top class, battle hardened handicapper, who has lost his form but reappears after a wind operation.

He's only ran 3 times on the all weather, winning one of those at Newcastle, which was a conditions race some four years ago.

I just need him to come back to his very best and find a few pounds after the wind op really. If those two things happen, 25/1 is a big price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I agree and will be backing it along with two others that I'll post once the sweetie money is on.
Click to expand...

Best I could get about Madara was 22/1 but I can live with that.

The other longshots I've now backed (glad I waited for bigger prices so swings'n'roundabouts and all that) are:

Editeur Du Gite 66/1, 4 places - There’s no evidence it will stay – it tried unsuccessfully as a younger horse – but it’s now very well handicapped and is actually bred for it so I have to take the chance at the price.

Jetoile 66/1, 4 places - wouldn’t be anywhere near this price if it was trained by a bigger name but it definitely has the form in the book having won last year’s Old Roan off a pound higher. I also think the claimer is value.
 
Significantly a NR at Newcastle.

Cheltenham 1.45 Noble Anthem hasn't done a lot wrong over fences so far, and ran really well last time when third at this venue, when he was reported to have bled from the nose. Clearly the market is all about the favourite, but with the 8 runners this one is an each way price.
 
Cheltenham 2.55 - Escaria Ten 66/1, 4 places - can't resist a wee pop at this one. He was once rated 152 (135 here before taking the 7lb claim into consideration) and has only his second run for this yard but they do like to target races at this track and could easily have opted for the cross country race on Friday in which they ran the big-priced runner-up from 18lbs out of the handicap. The jockey has one winner for the yard from ten rides but it was an 80/1 shot. Nothing ventured…
 
Back
Top