The Long Shot Thread

Haha I'm in a similar situation myself Des. I get a bit carried away with these things. I promise myself every year that I won't do too much ante-post and every year I seem to get more and more involved haha sucker for punishment :)
 
swedish chef said:
Total Stake: £15.00 Pot. Win: £449,028.45

My Bets
MultiplesStake per Bet
13:50 Naas 28th Jan
Tandem Win 33/1
15:40 Sedge 28th Jan
Christmas Twenty Win 25/1
15:50 Naas 28th Jan
Asitsohappens Win 25/1
16:20 Naas 28th Jan
Smoking Gun Win 33/1

0.5
£449,028.45
Lucky 15 (£0.50 x 15) EW
Bet Ref: O/6561***/*******

Here's a life changing bet - I can make a case for all of them having a chance but will probably be lucky to get one placed Going out today so won't know the results until tonight.
Click to expand...

I think it's fair to say the ones that did run outran their long odds, which is the purpose of the thread after all.

A nice place at a good price (should cover outlay for the day) and two other good performances.

Nice work, Chef.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think it's fair to say the ones that did run outran their long odds, which is the purpose of the thread after all.

A nice place at a good price (should cover outlay for the day) and two other good performances.

Nice work, Chef.
Click to expand...

Yes back to work tomorrow but a profit made as I only backed the two I did in the write ups in e/way singles and an e/way double. The e/way lucky 15 was the dream life changing bet. Asitsohappens didn't even qualify for the thread at the time of posting(edit - it did qualify but was backed down to 14/1)

Lucky 15 (x30) Each Way
V
13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
Tandem
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
P
15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
25/1
Christmas Twenty
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
L
15:50 HANDICAP CHASE 2m 4f - Each Way
14/1
Asitsohappens
25/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
L
16:20 NH FLAT 2m 3f - Each Way
33/1
Smoking Gun
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£15.00
Returns:
£8.60
Bet ID: O/6561083/******
----------------------------------------------------------

Boom! You have won £38.00
Doubles (x2) Each Way
P
15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
25/1
Christmas Twenty
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
V
13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
Tandem
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
Stake:
£10.00
Returns:
£38.00
Bet ID: O/6561083/******

Single Each Way
V
13:50 LIMESTONE LAD GRADE 3 HURDLE 2m - Each Way
Tandem
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/4 Odds | 2 Places
Stake:
£10.00
Returns:
£10.00
Bet ID: O/6561083/******

Boom! You have won £19.00
Single Each Way
P
15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
25/1
Christmas Twenty
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
Stake:
£5.00
Returns:
£19.00
Bet ID: O/6561083/******

Boom! You have won £22.80
Single Each Way
P
15:40 HANDICAP HURDLE 2m 5f 34y - Each Way
25/1
Christmas Twenty
33/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 4 Places
Stake:
£6.00
Returns:
£22.80
Bet ID: O/6561083/******
 
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My favourite thread at the minute. Awesome stuff chef. Quite extreme hold up tactics for Christmas Twenty. Could’ve been so much better if ridden with a bit more belief.


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TheBear said:
My favourite thread at the minute. Awesome stuff chef. Quite extreme hold up tactics for Christmas Twenty. Could’ve been so much better if ridden with a bit more belief.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

He was a horse who had probably lost his confidence but the ability was there, at least in a race of that standard.
 
Plumpton 4.25 Cassivellaunus backed at 100/1 although 80/1 best price now
The time of his last race I think was very good for the going and already there are signs it was a good race and may pay to follow runners from it. My selection finished 9th btn 38L.
Miss Tynte – who was held up in midfield but fell at the 5th finished 2nd on her next start
Mr Magil who was tailed off last – led to 3 out on his next start before weakening over 3f further.
Abbey Street – who was 10th btn 48L – finished 2nd on his next start in a slightly better h’cap than this.
Age Of Wisdom – who finished 7th btn 33L – won over 2m on the all weather on his next start, although he was entitled to at 1/5.
My one worry is the selection had a hard race but that is offset by the odds today. He may race prominently enough to get in a decent lay for a free bet?
 
Haven'nt seen the race, only listened to it, but Sixties Icon was a fast finishing third in that race. He's got to win a race at Plumpton one day.
 
I reckon Trans Wood can out run odds of 40/1 in the 2:55 at Punchestown tomorrow. She showed ability when second to Roja Dove on her first start in a handicap hurdle, and is quite better off at the weights, especially if you include the 7 pound claimer, which Roja Dove, (who is generally a 9/1 chance), doesn't have. So I'll give Trans Wood one more chance to show something like her best form. There's a hot favourite it has to be said, so possibly Trans Wood might be one to back to finish placed. I can't guarantee anything but I think she can run well if on a going day.
 
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I'll try that one, Marb. Down to £2 in my betting account now but did get the winner of the Hunter Chase [albeit using the pin sticking method!].
 
£1 each way at 40's then, Moe! She could be a 12/1 chance by the off, you never know!
 
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I was actually Gona put up Ambitious Boy at Wolverhampton in 5:25 earlier but obviously bottled it. Then it wins at 25/1!
 
Crikey that's a blast from the past I remember backing him in a big handicap hurdle when he was trained by Charlie Swan I can't believe he's still around Chef seems a lifetime ago.

Best of luck mate hope you keep your good run going.
 
Aye good luck Chef. Mine didn't disgrace back in fifth, just a bit unfortunate that the big guns in the race all ran their races. You'd think Trans Wood would be competitive in a similar event in the near future.
 
I seem to have had a 3rd with Tell Me Annie, 33/1 at Punchestown; problem is I have no idea why I backed it! Must have been blue on oddschecker last night when I was checking out Trans Wood.
 
swedish chef said:
Plumpton 4.25 Cassivellaunus backed at 100/1 although 80/1 best price now
The time of his last race I think was very good for the going and already there are signs it was a good race and may pay to follow runners from it. My selection finished 9th btn 38L.
Miss Tynte – who was held up in midfield but fell at the 5th finished 2nd on her next start
Mr Magil who was tailed off last – led to 3 out on his next start before weakening over 3f further.
Abbey Street – who was 10th btn 48L – finished 2nd on his next start in a slightly better h’cap than this.
Age Of Wisdom – who finished 7th btn 33L – won over 2m on the all weather on his next start, although he was entitled to at 1/5.
My one worry is the selection had a hard race but that is offset by the odds today. He may race prominently enough to get in a decent lay for a free bet?
Click to expand...

The above selection let me down but Hier Encore comes out and places at 50/1 (150/1taken)- Marley Firth and Missadventure entered Friday and Saturday but doubt there sp will qualify for this thread.

01-Feb-18
15:32:12 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:11524******* | Placed: 01-Feb-18 08:23:36 Back 510.00 0.04 --
-0.04
Lost
01-Feb-18
15:32:12 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:1152****** | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:16:55 Back 484.18 1.96 --
-1.96
Lost
01-Feb-18
15:32:12 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:11526******* | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:25:41 Back 410.00 2.00 --
-2.00
Lost
01-Feb-18
15:32:12 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:115******
| Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:26:04 Lay 30.00 20.00 580.00
20.00
Won

01-Feb-18
15:33:21 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - 4 TBP (4 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:115260****** | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:24:40 Back 4.40 3.91 --
13.29
Won
01-Feb-18
15:32:43 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:11526****** | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:22:47 Back 9.80 2.00 --
17.60
Won
01-Feb-18
15:32:43 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:11526****** | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:23:26 Back 9.80 2.00 --
17.60
Won
01-Feb-18
15:32:43 15:25 Towcester
Hier Encore - To Be Placed (3 TBP)
Betfair Bet ID 1:11526******* | Placed: 01-Feb-18 15:25:15 Back 9.33 6.82 --
56.79
Won

Boom! You have won £62.00
Single Each Way
P
15:25 NOVICES' HURDLE 2m 3f 34y - Each Way
50/1
Hier Encore
150/1
E/W Terms: 1/5 Odds | 3 Places
Stake:
£4.00
Returns:
£62.00
Bet ID: O/6561083/******
 
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It went a bit blue on oddschecker early on, so, thankfully I backed it; then had a panic thinking there were only 7 runners. Last minute money went on Le Musee 40/1 [sp] as well; someone must be disappointed as it finished a good second. Annoyingly, my computer is 3-4 minutes out so I often don't manage to get money on last minute plunges....Just got back from the cinema to find that Sheena West has had a 50/1 2nd at Kempton with Breslin. I back her horses blind but tend not to check out the flat cards. Sickener.
 
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Chepstow 3.20 Moutain Of Mourne 20/1 & Lord Fendale 66/1 cases can be made for both being nicely h'capped with chances better than their odds - minimum e/way bets both.
 
Just had a quick scan through tomorrows cards and there is so much of interest this weekend I just thought I'd post a couple for tomorrow whilst they are fresh in my mind.

In the 3.00 Sandown Heroes hurdle I can't really believe that Buywise should be a 20/1 shot being 5lb lower over hurdles than what he won the veterans final off at this course. He's now 12lbs lower over hurdles than his current chase mark. He's only ever had 7 hurdle runs and the one time he run over a trip near to this he won albeit he was a short priced favourite. At one time he was probably the biggest NRNB attempt of my life for the Coral Cup it was at a time when he was crashing through fences as a chaser and still running well off a light higher mark than his hurdle rating at the time. It was one of those bets that ended in a refund but always stuck in my craw as a very big "what if". Although he's too old for that sort of thing now he still might be able to get competitive here off his current mark.

Master of Irony 25/1 makes plenty of appeal in the Coral hurdle over in Ireland. A really eye catching run last time out and its worth watching the replay. Not too far from thinking he needs a bit further but the fact Quinn sends him over and books Johnson says this one will at least be having a go amongst a huge field where at least a few will be running the handbrake on. Might be one to wait for tomorrow for a price on as he might go bigger as he's not really an obvious candidate.

Oh and once again well played chef. I miss quite a few of the posts but I'm thinking if I end every post on here in future with Well played chef then more often than not I'll be hitting the target.
 
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Right I've stuck these up after a quick scan just off the top of my head really but after re-visiting Man of Irony and re-watching the replay myself I've come to the conclusion that he needs further is probably not accurate (although I dare say he would get further). Last time out he was held up but gave most of them a very soft early lead after some silly shenanigans at the start. He has absolutely rattled home late on. I'm thinking stronger pace and a more positive ride and he's as serious a player as you can get in a 30 runner handicap. Obviously the usual carnage of these events you need a huge slice of luck with anything you back but having reviewed the situation I'm having a more serious bet one this one. I've taken 25/1 to 5 places and even though my gut reaction is that he may drift out early tomorrow morning, if that is the case then quite simply the bigger he goes the more I will have on. I can't risk that someone flags this up in the media and I miss out altogether on a decent price so I've had to take a decent stab now.

Thought i'd just make this clear as most the time flagging up some of these horses as I did last week I stated that they were just minimum bets really or chuck them in a small multi hoping they outrun their price. This one is different I think he's a serious player given that slice of luck so worth pointing out the difference in the strength of selection, not of course that it guarantee's a better result.
 
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swedish chef said:
Sunday - Naas 1.50 Tandem 33/1 - another small speculative e/way as not sure if he will handle the ground. Rated 104 on the flat. Hasn't run over hurdles for 2 1/2 years but has had 6 races over hurdles never out of the first 5 including 1 win - 2 x 3rd's - 2 x 4ths and a 5th in the Grade 1 Royal Bond.
Shrewd trainer who has 3 wins and 3 places from 13 jump runs this season.
Click to expand...

This one was a non-runner in above race as he didn't eat up, but has managed to get a run tomorrow in The Coral Hurdle 4.05 Leopardstown 33/1 - Won off 99 on his penultimate start on the flat and btn 8L by Riven Light on his last start giving that horse 12lb. Riven Light was only btn 5L in a group 1 in Australia on his last start. I'm hoping this horse is a stable Cheltenham prospect. Watching his races you be hopeful he will be travelling well at 2 out and I will put in a LAY to cover stake but hopefully he has matured now and will properly see out the 2 miles
 
A couple of risky ones for me today:

San 3.00 Doesyourdogbite 40/1 - It might bite but it seems to have forgotten how to run. Still, it has accordingly plummeted in the ratings. He’s more than likely just a dog himself but he’s coming down the weights on the back of some awful runs and it’s a pretty poor race for top money. The sheer value is enough to make me wonder if Jonjo has plotted this one up. My main bet in the race doesn't quite qualify for the thread.

Wth 3.35 Grey Gold 22/1 - has to prove he isn’t as seriously in decline as this season’s form suggests and I hope this better ground might help him as well as the excellent Danny Cook. I have a saver on him.

Leo 4.05 Tandem 33/1 - Great minds think alike, Chef! Or are we seldom-differing fools? Tandem got back to his best on the Flat during the summer so I have to back him to translate his Flat ability back to the jumps here. He's my only bet in this race, ew to 5 places.
 
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Seen as both of you are on board I might as well hop on shall include Tandem in some e/w doubles.

My selection in the race has fortunately been trimmed a little If he'd have drifted I would have backed him again which probably would of given me a bigger investment than I'd like in such a race so I'll stick with what I have.
 
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